NFL betting odds: 5 moneyline underdog picks for Week 9

Moneyline underdogs are some of the best value in NFL sports betting. Finding the right teams to wager on (as with any sports wagering) is tough, but nothing beats a straight-up win where you take the moneyline underdog without relying on the points spread.

Week 8 of this column had some moderately big wins (New England +197 and Green Bay +235, see record below). We look to keep it going with mostly small underdog moneylines and one long shot bet.

#1 - New York Giants +125 vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The underdog Giants are playing better than their 2-6 record suggests. Other than big losses to the top two teams in the NFC (the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Rams), the New York Giants have hung with every opponent in close losses, even upsetting top teams like the New Orleans Saints. They’ve dealt with a lot of injuries, and their close games suggest that their roster is very deep.

For the 5-2 Las Vegas Raiders, it’s been a season of difficult challenges. This week, look for the Giants to be the more focused team that comes away with a win. They will have the services of rookie burner wide receiver Kadarius Toney, who will be the X-factor in the game. At the +125 moneyline, the Giants should walk away with their third win of the year.

#2 - Carolina Panthers +162 vs. New England Patriots

The 4-4 Panthers might have running back Christian McCaffrey back, but quarterback Sam Darnold could be out, which leaves backup quarterback PJ Walker as the new starter. The 4-4 New England Patriots have not played as bad as the Panthers, but their record is a result of a tough schedule (Tampa Bay, Dallas, and the Los Angeles Chargers were their best opponents).

Despite the uncertainty on their roster, the Panthers are a small underdog and their moneyline price of +162 is enticing. Look for the underdog Panthers to put up some points on a tough Patriots defense.

#3 - San Francisco 49ers +101 vs. Arizona Cardinals

The 3-4 San Francisco 49ers host the 7-1 Arizona Cardinals fresh off their first loss of the season to the Green Bay Packers. The 49ers limp into this contest losing grip in the NFC West, but expect them to right the ship against their division rivals. Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins are both nursing injuries, and the loss of J.J. Watt took the air out of their improved defense.

The 49ers here as a pick 'em underdog are a good bet for the win against the Cardinals. The moneyline price of +101 is but a mere formality.

#4 - Cleveland Browns +115 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Sportsblog pioneer Bill Simmons once popularized the term “The [Patrick] Ewing Theory,” which states that a team plays better (and wins) when its best player is not in the lineup. In the midst of the Odell Beckham Jr. soap opera, the 4-4 Cleveland Browns will put this theory to the test against the 5-3 Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are coming off their third loss of the season but might lose their second in a row against the Browns.

Take the underdog Browns at a modest +115 moneyline.

#5 - Shoot your shot upset of the week: Chicago Bears +225 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Last week’s SYSUotW cashed with the Green Bay Packers' upset of the Arizona Cardinals. This week, we shoot our shot with the 3-5 Chicago Bears visiting the 4-3 Pittsburgh Steelers. Look for quarterback Justin Fields to keep improving and use his legs to get the offense moving.

For entertainment purposes only, the SYSUotW’s criteria is a moneyline underdog play at a +200 or more price.

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Week 8 results: (3-2 +3.77 units)

NFL Moneyline underdog Year-to-date: (5-5 +4.67 units)

Shoot your shot upset of the week YTD: (2-0 +4.55)