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Anticipation of just who will be selected first-overall in the 2022 NFL Draft is close to hitting a fever-pitch with Aidan Hutchinson facing a late surge from Travon Walker.
However, selecting the consensus best player in an NFL Draft class isn’t always a guarantee of immediate success, with the results of the last decade having varied enormously.
As part of Sportskeeda’s continued NFL Draft coverage, we’ve ranked every first overall selection since 2010.
How have the 12 first-overall NFL Draft picks since 2010 fared in the NFL?
12 - 2016 - Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams
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Having been selected as the quarterback to lead the Los Angeles Rams into a new era, Jared Goff has failed to live up to expectations, having been traded to the Detroit Lions after five years with the Rams.
The marriage initially started well as Goff took the starting role in the 2017 season, throwing for 3,804 yards and 28 touchdowns.
What followed was his best year in Los Angeles, where he threw for 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns as the Rams went all the way to the Super Bowl.
It was perhaps the pinnacle of Goff’s career, and the beginning of his downfall. Whilst his numbers in 2019 didn’t drop dramatically, he began to throw more interceptions and the team’s results dipped.
By 2020, a lot of faith had been lost in Goff as he threw for only 3,952 yards and 20 touchdowns, and Sean McVay made the decision to move on from him.
A trade with the Detroit Lions saw Matthew Stafford finally get his chance to win, whilst Goff was moved to a Detroit franchise that is still looking for their answer at quarterback.
2021 was a poor season for Goff in Detroit, and it is difficult to envisage him regaining a starting spot anywhere in the NFL.
11 - 2015 - Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Some players are victims of how high they are drafted and Jameis Winston is a prime example of that.
Whilst his numbers have been serviceable throughout his NFL career, they weren’t those of a first-overall selection.
Turnovers have killed Winston’s chances of being viewed as an elite starting quarterback, and his 2019 season saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally lose patience with him as he threw 30 interceptions.
What people often forget is that alongside that high number of interceptions, Winston also threw for a league-leading 5,109 yards.
Tampa Bay, like the Rams with Goff, made the decision that Winston wasn’t worth paying beyond his rookie deal, and took the opportunity to bring Tom Brady into the fold.
What followed, like with the Rams, was a Super Bowl championship, whilst Winston is rebuilding his career battling for a starting spot in New Orleans.
10 - 2014 - Jadeveon Clowney, DE, Houston Texans
Prior to the 2014 NFL Draft, many teams were concerned about Jadeveon Clowney’s motor. He seemed to take too many plays off and few expected him to be an elite edge rusher in the NFL.
Even so, the Houston Texans selected him first-overall in the NFL Draft and would only get five years out of him before moving on.
Clowney’s rookie year was disrupted by injury and he made just two starts, however he never showed his true talent in Houston.
A career-high of 9.5 sacks in a single season came in 2017, yet his production has tailed off ever since.
In the 2021 campaign, after failed stints with the Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans, Clowney would start 14 games for the Cleveland Browns. He recorded nine sacks, but this wasn’t enough to persuade the Browns to re-sign him.
Clowney has shown flashes of his talent, but in a way, this consolidates what scouts said about him prior to the 2014 NFL Draft. He's too inconsistent with his effort and you can’t rely on him to pressure the quarterback on every down.
His NFL career hasn’t been poor, but for where he was taken in the NFL Draft the Texans have to consider it a wasted pick. Especially with Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald both being taken later in the first-round of the same NFL Draft class.
9 - 2010 - Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams
Sam Bradford was a consensus first-overall selection in the 2010 NFL Draft. His quarterback prowess was incredible as a collegiate athlete and few had any complaints when the St. Louis Rams drafted the 2008 Heisman Trophy winner.
Unfortunately, injuries would ruin Bradford’s career, rendering this pick almost impossible to judge as a success story.
Four years in St. Louis were unproductive for Bradford, who enjoyed his only fully healthy year in 2012, when he started all 16 of the Rams’ games and threw for 3,702 yards and 21 touchdowns.
Unfortunately, playing on a poor Rams team often afforded Bradford next to no protection, and he started just seven games in his final year in St. Louis. An ACL tear followed in October 2013, before he suffered the exact same injury in a pre-season game in 2014, ensuring he would miss the entire season.
Bradford was then able to make two solid runs with the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings, starting 14 and 15 games respectively in 2015 and 2016. He threw for 3,725 yards and 3,877 yards in those two years.
Injuries hit him again and his last contract was as a backup with the Arizona Cardinals in 2018. He has been out of the NFL ever since, and his career is considered to be over.
8 - 2018 - Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns went 0-16 in the 2017 season and needed to find a quarterback to rescue the situation.
Baker Mayfield was jettisoned in as the first-overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, with many having concerns about his suitability for the position.
Mayfield’s story is one which is still being told, even after four mixed seasons in Cleveland.
Mayfield has been consistent with the Browns, but consistently average, rather than ever hitting the elite bracket.
He led the team to a winning season in 2020, throwing for 26 touchdowns and 3,563 yards. He was also able to win the Browns their first play-off game since 1994 when he commandeered a 48-37 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
However, 2021 saw the Browns grow tired of mediocre play from their quarterback and replace him with Deshaun Watson.
Mayfield is currently without a starting role, and it remains to be seen who will trade for him after the 2022 NFL Draft. After just four average seasons, he is at a career crossroads.
7 - 2021 - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
It is very difficult to rank a player who has played just one season in the NFL after being selected first-overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Trevor Lawrence is stupendously talented and has the perfect arm. He also possesses the characteristics necessary to lead a franchise, as highlighted by his diplomatic handling of Urban Meyer’s various missteps as Jaguars coach.
However, you can’t look past a rookie season that returned 3,641 passing yards and more interceptions than touchdown passes on the worst team in the NFL.
Lawrence has yet to show his talent, although a lot of that can be put down to the incredibly poor working environment that was present in Jacksonville.
I fully expect Lawrence to be a star in the NFL and will be much higher on this list in the future, but for now, I can only label his NFL career as mediocre.
6 - 2019 - Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray had a lot of pre-NFL Draft hype around him after being drafted in the 2018 MLB Draft. He strung the Oakland Athletics along in the hope of holding out for a record rookie contract in baseball, whilst maintaining his preference was to play in the NFL.
This entire saga would build Murray’s NFL Draft stock incredibly well. He rose up boards in the months before the 2019 NFL Draft and by the time the Arizona Cardinals selected him first-overall, few were surprised.
Despite his height being below that of the traditional quarterback, Murray has been a revelation with the Cardinals.
In three seasons, he has thrown for a total of 11,480 yards and 70 touchdowns. He steered the Cardinals to a winning season in 2021, which brought with it a playoff berth, and he is showing every sign of getting better as a quarterback.
He holds the franchise record for the most rookie passing yards, most passing touchdowns from a rookie and the most wins by a rookie Cardinals QB.
Kyler Murray is the most important player in Arizona,. Despite offseason publicity surrounding his unhappiness with the team’s roster, he has shown that being selected first in the NFL Draft was the right spot for his talent.
5 - 2013 - Eric Fisher, OT, Kansas City Chiefs
Offensive linemen aren’t exciting. They don’t look good; they don’t make highlight reels and they create very little hype with regard to the first-overall selection in any given NFL Draft.
So, there was an audible gasp of surprise when the Kansas City Chiefs selected Eric Fisher with the first pick of the 2013 NFL Draft.
Fisher is one of just two offensive linemen taken with the first-overall pick since the turn of the millennium, and his career took years to show real value.
Fisher was selected to two Pro Bowls and was a starting left tackle as the Chiefs won the Super Bowl in 2019.
His eight-year career in Kansas City saw him allow just 44 sacks in 117 games, and he was an unassuming star on the Chiefs’ offensive line.
It’s always difficult to gage value for an offensive lineman taken so highly in an NFL Draft. However, the Chiefs would argue he was a reliable player for eight years and contributed to a championship, making this pick an overwhelming success.
4 - 2012 - Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Almost nobody can look at Andrew Luck's NFL career without an element of regret.
Luck was the generational quarterback prospect that the 2012 NFL Draft needed, and he was the best to emerge since Peyton Manning.
Ironically, the Indianapolis Colts would select Luck with the first overall pick in 2012 to replace Manning, who would leave for Denver after neck surgery.
Colts fans relished every defeat in 2011, knowing it would put them in a strong position to draft Luck. Yet, the night of the 2012 NFL Draft was where Luck’s luck peaked.
His first three seasons in the NFL were magnificent, as he transformed the Colts back into annual contenders for the Super Bowl.
He was named to the Pro Bowl in every single one of his first three seasons, throwing for 4,374 yards, 3,822 yards and 4,761 yards, respectively. A league-leading 40 touchdown passes in the 2014 NFL season saw Luck rated as one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and then it all fell apart.
In his first three years, Luck didn’t miss a single game. However, the poor offensive line in front of him saw him sacked 100 times across three seasons, and the physical toll would catch up to him.
In 2015, Luck started just seven games before tearing his shoulder labrum against the Titans.
The damage from his first three years in the NFL was said to be so severe that his surgeon compared it to that of a car crash victim. A lacerated kidney would also complicate his return.
He would indeed return and play 15 games in 2016, before missing the entire 2017 season with more shoulder discomfort.
Luck played 16 games in 2018, but the damage was done. His play had been consistently excellent, but he decided that at age 29, he was retiring, with his body unable to put up with the physical damage football had inflicted on it.
Luck was on course to be a guaranteed Hall of Famer, and only his early retirement has prevented him from being ranked higher here.
3 - 2011 - Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton was selected first overall by the Carolina Panthers in the 2011 NFL Draft and was an instant hit. His brave, mobile style of play saw him earn plaudits and turn the Panthers into an exceptional team.
In 2015, Newton would win the NFL MVP award for his 3,837 passing yards and 35 passing touchdowns, as the Panthers recorded a 15-1 season.
He would lead the team to the Super Bowl, where they would fall short against a dominant Denver Broncos defense.
The Super Bowl defeat would have a lasting impact on Newton as he saw his level of production drop. A Lisfranc fracture ended his Panthers career, limiting him to just two starts in 2019.
Newton had an okay year with the New England Patriots in 2020, before re-joining the Panthers as a backup in 2021.
He is currently a free agent, but his performances in his earlier years were so good that he is one of the better NFL Draft selections of the last decade.
2 - 2020 - Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow is ranked as high as this, mainly based on potential. He was selected first-overall in the 2020 NFL Draft after a heroic rise as the quarterback who led LSU to a national championship.
He instantly settled into life in the NFL after being given the starting job, throwing for 2,688 yards before an ACL injury ended his season in Week 11.
Many speculated that his recovery would be problematic, which sparked fears of yet another first-overall NFL Draft selection being ruined by injury. However, Burrow rode back into the league in 2021 and steered the Bengals to the Super Bowl.
He threw for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns and was a serious NFL MVP candidate in just his second year.
He has an incredibly strong mentality, taking on an ailing Cincinnati Bengals franchise and carrying it. He attracts others to want to join him in Cincinnati and everything at the moment is pointing towards not just a Hall of Fame career, but multiple Super Bowl championships.
1 - 2017 - Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns
The 2017 NFL Draft brought one of the most dominant edge rushers in recent times into the league.
Whilst some had concerns about Myles Garrett taking plays off in college with Texas A&M, every pre-draft prediction of him becoming a dominant star has come true.
A difficult first season with the Cleveland Browns finishing 0-16 saw Garrett record just seven sacks, however his numbers have exploded since then.
In the four seasons between 2018 and 2021, Garrett registered 13.5, 10, 12 and 16 sacks in each respective campaign. He has been selected to the Pro Bowl three times and is considered one of the two best pass rushers in the NFL alongside Aaron Donald.
Garrett is just 26 and is only going to improve. He’s a physically domineering giant of a defensive player and frightens offensive lines.
Having recorded 58.5 sacks in his first five seasons in the NFL, he has to be eyeing Bruce Smith’s record of 200 career sacks. Only potential injuries seem like they could stop him from getting there. That is certainly a sign of a valuable first-overall pick in the NFL Draft.
