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This fall will be the first time in about 22 months that the buzzing, beaming faces of NFL fans grace the stadiums. For some, the return of crowd noise will be like seeing an old friend. For others, it will mean getting reacquainted with the ebb and flow of the tides of hostility.
At the same time, the season will also be impacted by the addition of an additional game. No player in the NFL has played in 17 games in one season. In a contact-heavy sport, this is bound to have an impact on injuries. How much? We'll have to wait and see.
Both the return of the crowds and the additional game will affect NFL offenses, that much is for sure. Each will act as a boost and a hindrance, sending the statistics into a frenzy.
Crowds will act towards suppressing rival NFL offenses with their disruptive roars, while offenses will have an extra game to recover lost touchdowns and yardage. Which change will have a bigger impact? Will NFL offenses see record numbers or will the crowds plague offensive production in 2021?
Why crowds will dither NFL offenses
In 2020, most stadiums were largely empty. Players were unaffected by loud, hostile crowds. They had near-perfect focus. This led to some near-record numbers for some quarterbacks.
Russell Wilson threw for a career-high 40 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Tom Brady had his second-best season in throwing for 40 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Aaron Rodgers threw for a career-high 48 touchdowns and five interceptions. Ben Roethlisberger nearly tied his career record with 33 touchdowns and ten interceptions. A clear uptick.
When quarterbacks are rolling, offenses are in tow. When quarterbacks are not putting up great stats, offenses struggle. Last season, when the crowds were absent, quarterbacks could communicate clearer and focus better, boosting their production. However, with the return of crowds this fall, production could be adversely affected, more than years past.
Why an extra game will boost stats... eventually
Some NFL fans are expecting offenses to instantly hit record highs this season. Quite simply, the additional game should give the players more time to increase production.
While the addition of an extra game may eventually achieve this result, 2021 is likely to be on a similar level to 2019 in terms of statistical output.
It is not a question of whether offenses will be affected by crowds. The question is how much the return of the fans dithers an NFL team's offense.
If crowds drop NFL offenses by a game's worth of production, the team could make up the difference in the 17th game of the season. If this were to happen, it would keep offenses at the same level, even with an extra game.
However, if teams acclimate to crowds within a few games and return to normal levels of offense quickly, they could reach higher numbers than ever before in the 17th game of the season.
That said, in a contact sport like football, injuries are always a concern. One more game is just more time for more injuries.
Put simply, the push and pull of a 17th game and the return of crowds will be one of the subplots in the NFL this season. Will offenses break records this season or will the NFL's fireworks have to wait until after the teams are fully reacclimated to crowds?
