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On Thursday, April 28, 2022, the NFL draft will begin and teams will be looking for the next great franchise player. The reality of the draft is that there are more misses than hits.
Over 250 players are drafted into the NFL each year and most teams are hopeful of having two or three players make an impact in the upcoming season.
Due to its importance as a franchise builder and with the realities of the salary cap, NFL teams put millions of dollars into the NFL Draft. Despite all the time and money, it is usually the teams that stick to their plans and block out the constant chatter that are most successful.
It is easy to get lost in draft conversations and combine measurables, forgetting about what the player looks like and how they perform on the field.
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Take, for example, the Cincinnati Bengals and the drafting of star wideout Ja'Marr Chase. On the surface, reconnecting Chase with his college quarterback Joe Burrow seems like a no-brainer.
However, leading up to the NFL draft, most of the NFL had the Bengals selecting an offensive lineman, namely, Oregon's Penei Sewell. For many draft insiders, taking Sewell was the safe option and Chase was more of a risky option.
As it turned out, Sewell had plenty of ups and downs with the Detroit Lions. Chase and Burrow, on the other hand, formed one of the most dangerous passing duos in the league, leading the team to a Superbowl appearance.
With the NFL more competitive than it has ever been, it is crucial that franchises take calculated risks when it comes to the draft. In a league where star players are in constant flux, drafting based on a team’s core belief system and using that system to bring in the right players is imperative.
Look at all the teams that passed on DK Metcalf because they believed he was nothing more than a physical specimen. Risks are part of the game, and taking the right ones on draft day are one of the keys to success.
NFL Draft Risk #1: The Jacksonville Jaguars trade the #1 pick
The mess of the 2021 Jaguar season is not going to be erased by a busy offseason. Jacksonville made a series of moves to bolster their team and avoid another bottom-dwelling season.
While firing Urban Meyer and replacing him with Doug Pederson is a definite step in the right direction, the team is still full of roster holes and genuine football talent.
By trading down and acquiring more capital, the team gives itself more of an opportunity to build the right way. The difference between potential number one pick Aidan Hutchinson and players later in the first round is not overwhelming enough.
It's certainly not so overwhelming that the proposition of losing out on him is something the Jaguars should avoid. Add to this the late surge of Georgia pass rusher Travon Walker into the top three conversation.
There is a good chance a team is falling in love with his potential and would be willing to move up to number one to get him.
NFL Draft Risk #2: The Pittsburgh Steelers draft Desmond Ridder
With the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger, the Pittsburgh Steelers are in need of a new quarterback. The team signed Mitchell Trubisky to compete for the starting job.
Any Chicago Bears fan will tell you that the ceiling on that move is not high. With Dwayne Haskins' tragic passing a few weeks ago, the quarterback position in Pittsburgh is on shaky ground.
While Malik Willis is the most talented quarterback in the class, Desmond Ridder is the most underappreciated. Ridder is a four-year starter and a proven winner.
Too many people are putting stock into his subpar performance against Alabama. His quick decision-making skills would be an ideal fit for Pittsburgh, and the team has plenty of weapons to support the rookie.
NFL Draft Risk #3: The Los Angeles Chargers draft a Wide Reciever
This is a very similar situation to the Cincinnati Bengals drafting Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell. Most mock drafts have the Chargers selecting hulking defensive tackle Jordan Davis.
There is no doubt the Chargers need to bolster their run defense as it was one of the worst in the league in 2021. Also, with a wide receiver depth chart of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Josh Palmer, the position is not an immediate need.
With that said, franchise quarterback Justin Herbert is entering year three of his cap-friendly rookie contract - now is the time to go all in on offense.
Adding another weapon like Ohio State's Chris Olave, USC's Drake London (if he slips) or Arkansas' Treylon Burks, would make the Chargers offense one of the most deadly in the league.
NFL Draft Risk #4: The New York Giants double down on offense
With two first-round draft picks in the top 10 and a lack of star talent on both sides of the ball, the safest thing for the New York Giants to do is spread their two picks across offense and defense.
However, this is the year the Giants need to find out what they truly have in quarterback Daniel Jones. By bringing in Brian Daboll, the offensive guru behind Josh Allen, as their head coach, New York is doing everything in their power to make Jones successful.
With glaring holes on the offensive line and at wide receiver, the Giants should use the number 5 and 7 overall picks to fill those needs. Adding tackle Evan Neal and wideout Garrett Wilson to the offense would give Jones more time to process and a legitimate number one receiver.
NFL Draft Risk #5: The Chicago Bears trade up for Chris Olave
In 2021, the Chicago Bears went all in to move up in the draft and solve their decades-long quarterback problem by selecting Justin Fields. Throughout his rookie season, Fields showed a tremendous amount of promise and potential. This meant that Bears fans should be excited about his future.
The problem, as it stands now, is that surrounding Fields are a number of questions. With holes across the offensive line and no true number one receiver, Chicago should ensure they surround Fields with enough talent to legitimately evaluate what they have.
With two second-round draft picks, the Bears have enough ammunition to move up into round one and reunite Fields with his college teammate Chris Olave. As we have seen with Burrow/Chase, Tua/Waddle, and Hurts/Smith - the teammate connection can spark an offense.
It can give a young quarterback, at worst, a safety blanket and, at best, a true number one wide receiver.
