2020 Australian Open: Analysing Rafael Nadal's route to the final

One of four former winners of the tournament in the 2020 Australian Open field, the others being Novak Djokovic (7), Roger Federer (6) and Stan Wawrinka (1), Rafael Nadal had his finest hour in Melbourne in 2009 when he beat Federer in a five-set final.

Nadal's 61 match wins at the Australian Open are only behind those of Federer's 97 and Djokovic's 68 in the tournament's all-time match wins leaderboard. The Spaniard is one of 6 left-handers to win the first Grand Slam tournament of the year, the others being Rod Laver (1969), Jimmy Connors (1974), Roscoe Tanner (1977), Guillermo Vilas (1978-79) and Petr Korda (1998).

Since his debut at the tournament in 2004 (lost in the 3R to Lleyton Hewitt), Nadal's only other first-week exit at the Australian Open happened in 2016 - when he fell to compatriot Fernando Verdasco in five sets in the first round. The Spaniard opens his 16th campaign at the Australian Open against Bolivian Hugo Dellien, whom he has never met before.

In the second round, Federico Delbonis or Joao Sousa would await Nadal, neither of whom has beaten the Spaniard in 3 respective meetings. A qualifier or 27th seeded compatriot Pablo Carreno Busta is a potential third round opponent, before Nadal could run into one of Karen Khachanov or combustible Australian Nick Kyrgios for a place in the quarterfinals.

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Both Khachanov and Kyrgios have clashed with Nadal on 7 respective occasions, and the two big serving men can trouble and potentially eliminate Nadal from the tournament.

Khachanov may have managed to take only one set off the Spaniard in 7 meetings, but the Russian remains a formidable opponent on hardcourt. Kyrgios, who is 3-4 against Nadal which includes a 1-1 split of the pair's 2 Grand Slam meetings (2014 Wimbledon 4R: Kyrgios; 2019 Wimbledon 2R: Nadal), is expected to be the marginally greater threat.

If Nadal crosses the fourth round hurdle, Gael Monfils (2-14 against Nadal) or Dominic Thiem (4-9 against Nadal) could lie in wait. Although neither player has beaten Nadal in Grand Slam tournaments (Monfils: 0-3, Thiem: 0-5), Thiem was within two points of beating the Spaniard in the 2018 US Open quarterfinals before going down in a fifth-set tiebreak. He also took a set off Nadal in the 2019 Roland Garros final.

In the semifinal, the Spaniard could have a mouth-watering 2019 US Open final re-match with Russian Daniil Medvedev, who had recovered from a two set and a break deficit before going down 4-6 in the fifth set. Medvedev squandered a match point at 5-1 in the third set of the pair's 2019 ATP Finals round-robin meeting, before going down in a third set tiebreak.

Nadal (right) beat Medvedev in an epic 5-set clash to win the 2019 US Open

If Nadal manages to reach back-to-back Australian Open finals for the first time in his career, either Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer looks likely to stand in the way of him creating history by becoming the first player in the Open Era to win the double career Grand Slam (winning all 4 Grand Slam tournaments at least twice).

Although Nadal has a commanding head-to-head lead over both men in Grand Slam tournaments (9-6 against Djokovic, 10-4 against Federer), the Spaniard is only 4-4 with Djokovic in Grand Slam finals (and 6-3 against Federer).

Nadal hasn't beaten Djokovic in 10 hardcourt matches since the 2013 US Open final, and has won only twice in his last 15 meetings with the Serb on the surface. Against Federer as well, Nadal's recent hardcourt record does not inspire much confidence. The Spaniard has not beaten Federer on hardcourt in 5 meetings since the 2014 Australian Open semifinals.

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One of only 4 players in the Open Era to lose at least 4 Grand Slam finals at a tournament, the others being Ivan Lendl (US Open-5), Andy Murray (Australian Open-5) and Novak Djokovic (US Open-5), Nadal probably faces the toughest route to the 2020 Australian Open title compared to his fellow Big 3 peers Federer and Djokovic.

Nadal hasn't beaten Djokovic on hardcourt since 2013

Nadal's physical style of play makes hardcourt a tough surface for his body in general, and knees in particular. That said, the Spaniard won 6 consecutive matches on the surface to close the 2019 season as Spain won the inaugural 2019 Davis Cup finals.

In the inaugural 2020 ATP Cup, Nadal went 4-2 in singles matches as Spain lost to Serbia in the final.

The surfeit of recent hardcourt matches coupled with Nadal's less than encouraging record on the surface (0-15 in his last 15 matches against Djokovic and Federer) tend to suggest that the Spaniard may not have things his own way at the 2020 Australian Open. However, a title run from Nadal in Melbourne may not be entirely implausible given his legendary fighting spirit and impressive Grand Slam resume.

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