Italian Open 2022: Women's singles draw analysis, preview & prediction

Rohit
Iga Swiatek at the 2021 Italian Open.
Iga Swiatek at the 2021 Italian Open.

The 2022 Italian Open is one of the last remaining tournaments for most women to get their form sorted ahead of Roland Garros.

Defending champion and World No. 1 Iga Swiatek is the overwhelming favorite to win the title. She has won four tournaments in a row and is currently on a 23-match winning streak. Swiatek notably skipped the Madrid Open to recover from a shoulder injury, but the Pole shouldn't be affected by it heading into Rome.

Most of the women in the top 10 who competed in Madrid lost rather early. Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Pliskova failed to win a match, while Maria Sakkari, Garbine Muguruza, Paula Badosa and Danielle Collins lost in the second round.

Ons Jabeur was the only player from the top 10 to perform well. The Tunisian made it all the way to the final, where she'll take on Jessica Pegula on Saturday (May 7).

Simona Halep made a comeback at the Madrid Open after an injury layoff and reached the quarterfinals. A former Italian Open champion, the Romanian will look to triumph in Rome once again.

Emma Raducanu and Bianca Andreescu, playing in their first full clay season on the WTA tour, will compete in Rome for the first time. The duo have fared decently so far, but will be itching to improve their performances.

The women's draw could spring some surprises, as is quite often the case. With the main draw action set to begin on Monday, May 9, here is a look at the prospects of the top players.


First Quarter: Iga Swiatek aiming to continue her dominance at the Italian Open

Iga Swiatek at the 2022 Miami Open.
Iga Swiatek at the 2022 Miami Open.

Top seeded players: (1) Iga Swiatek, (5) Anett Kontaveit, (10) Emma Raducanu and (16) Victoria Azarenka.

Expected quarterfinal: Iga Swiatek vs Anett Kontaveit.

Dark horse: Sara Sorribes Tormo.

Analysis: Defending champion Iga Swiatek has arrived at the Italian Open as the leading contender to win the title. Her exploits this year have put her in elite company and the 20-year-old has shown no signs of stopping so far.

The first quarter of the draw is loaded with big names, but it remains to be seen if they can stop the Pole from steamrolling through the draw.

Swiatek, along with the other eight seeds, has received a bye into the second round. She'll commence her title defense against either Shelby Rogers or Alison Rikse.

Swiatek is likely to meet two-time Grand Slam champion Victoria Azarenka in the third round, who reached the same stage in Madrid last week. Should the Belarusian lose early, either Camila Osorio or Viktorija Golubic could face the Pole in the third round.

Anett Kontaveit started the year on a strong note, but has run out of steam over the last few weeks. Her only clay event of the season so far was the Stuttgart Open, where she reached the quarterfinals. She's likely to take on Karolina Muchova in the second round. The Czech is a talented player and could potentially pull off an upset.

US Open champions Emma Raducanu and Bianca Andreescu are set to square off in a highly-anticipated first-round clash. Both players are making their debut at the Italian Open, so it'll end on a disappointing note for one of them. The winner of this contest could take on Naomi Osaka in the second round.

The Japanese will have to get past Sara Sorribes Tormo, who defeated her in Madrid in their second-round contest. A victory would then set up a third-round clash with either Kontaveit or Muchova for the quarterfinal spot.

Predicted quarterfinal: Iga Swiatek def. Sara Sorribes Tormo.


Second Quarter: Unseeded Simona Halep will be tested by Aryna Sabalenka and Danielle Collins

Simona Halep at the 2020 Italian Open.
Simona Halep at the 2020 Italian Open.

Top seeded players: (3) Aryna Sabalenka, (7) Danielle Collins, (12) Belinda Bencic and (13) Jessica Pegula.

Expected quarterfinal: Aryna Sabalenka vs Danielle Collins.

Dark horse: Anhelina Kalinina.

Analysis: Aryna Sabalenka showed some promise at the start of the clay season with a runner-up finish at the Stuttgart Open. However, her title defense at the Madrid Open ended with a first-round loss to Amanda Anisimova. The Belarusian has won just one match in three appearances at the Italian Open so far.

Sabalenka will start against either Zhang Shuai or Martina Trevisan in the second round. On paper, she should be able to defeat them both, but given her current form, the match could go either way. She could face either Anhelina Kalinina or Jessica Pegula in the third round.

Kalinina defeated three Grand Slam champions in a row on her way to the Madrid Open quarterfinals. The Ukrainian won against Sloane Stephens, Garbine Muguruza and Emma Raducanu before losing to Jil Teichmann.

Pegula, meanwhile, has reached the final in Madrid, where she'll take on Ons Jabeur on Saturday evening. The American reached the quarterfinals at the Italian Open last year.

Danielle Collins, who lost to Andreescu 6-1, 6-1 in the second round of the Madrid Open, is likely to face Simona Halep in the second round in Rome. Halep reached the quarterfinals in Madrid and is up against Alize Cornet.

Halep could take on either Belinda Bencic or Amanda Anisimova for a spot in the quarterfinals. Both players have done quite well during the clay season so far, and could put up a fight against the former World No. 1.

Quarterfinal prediction: Simona Halep def. Jessica Pegula.


Third Quarter: Maria Sakkari and Garbine Muguruza look to rebound after disappointing losses in Madrid

Maria Sakkari at the 2021 Italian Open.
Maria Sakkari at the 2021 Italian Open.

Top seeded players: (4) Maria Sakkari, (8) Garbine Muguruza, (9) Ons Jabeur and (15) Coco Gauff.

Expected quarterfinal: Maria Sakkari vs Garbine Muguruza.

Dark horse: Ekaterina Alexandrova.

Analysis: Maria Sakkari's clay season has gotten off to an underwhelming start. She had to retire halfway through her opening-round contest in Stuttgart and didn't look to be at her best during her second-round exit from Madrid.

The Greek made it to the semifinals at Roland Garros last year and won her only career title on the surface as well.

Sakkari could start her Italian Open campaign against either Ekaterina Alexandrova, who reached the semifinals in Madrid, or 2017 US Open champion Sloane Stephens. The American has struggled in recent weeks, but is a decent player on clay. If she finds her form, she could do some damage here.

A win in this matchup see Sakkari take on Coco Gauff for a spot in the last eight.

Gauff notably defeated Sakkari en route to the Italian Open semifinals last year. The teenager is up against former World No. 1 Angelique Kerber in the first round this time around. The German has lost in the opening round of her last two events.

With a 6-6 record for the year, Garbine Muguruza has struggled a fair bit this year. Her most recent loss was a disappointing 6-3, 6-0 reversal against Kalinina in Madrid last week.

But Muguruza has a pretty good record in Rome, having reached the semifinals on three occasions. She'll take on a qualifier in the second round, ahead of a potential third-round contest with Ons Jabeur.

Jabeur, meanwhile, reached the biggest final of her career at the Madrid Open, where she will take on Pegula on Saturday. She could be a little tired after her exploits in the Spanish capital, but if the Tunisian is fit and firing, she could make a deep run in Rome as well.

Jabeur will start against Sorana Cirstea, followed by a second-round encounter with either Camila Giorgi or Ajla Tomljanovic. She could face Muguruza in the third round, with a win ensuring her passage to the last eight.

Quarterfinal prediction: Ons Jabeur def. Coco Gauff.


Fouth Quarter: Paula Badosa and Karolina Pliskova look to build momentum ahead of Roland Garros

Karolina Pliskova at the 2019 Italian Open.
Karolina Pliskova at the 2019 Italian Open.

Top seeded players: (2) Paula Badosa, (6) Karolina Pliskova, (11) Jelena Ostapenko and (14) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

Expected quarterfinal: Paula Badosa vs Karolina Pliskova.

Dark horse: Jil Teichmann.

Analysis: Paula Badosa will be making her debut at the Italian Open this year. She had a decent clay season until her second-round loss to Simona Halep in Madrid. The Spaniard will be aiming to regroup and perform well in Rome in the lead-up to the French Open.

Badosa could start against Veronika Kudermetova, who she defeated in Madrid last week. If the seeds hold up, she could take on 2021 Roland Garros runner-up Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the third round.

Pavlyuchenkova made her comeback in Madrid after a two-month injury layoff, but lost in the first round. She will face Leylah Fernandez in her opener in Rome, followed by a second-round clash against either Daria Kasatkina or Tamara Zidansek.

Karolina Pliskova is another notable name in this quarter of the draw. She has reached the title round of the Italian Open in the previous three editions, winning in 2019.

Given her current form, it's hard to see her making it to the final this time. But after an underwhelming start to her 2021 season, she managed to turn her fortunes around by reaching the summit clash of the Italian Open last year.

Pliskova's draw is rather challenging. She could meet Jil Teichmann in the second round, with either 2017 Roland Garros champion Jelena Ostapenko or Elena Rybakina waiting for her in the third round. The Czech has her task cut out for her if she wants to make a deep run in Rome.

Quarterfinal prediction: Paula Badosa def. Jelena Ostapenko


Prediction for semifinals:

Iga Swiatek def. Simona Halep.

Paula Badosa def. Ons Jabeur.


Prediction for the final: Iga Swiatek def. Paula Badosa.