Paris Masters 2021: Men's singles draw analysis, preview & prediction

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Five-time champion Novak Djokovic headlines the 2021 Rolex Paris Masters
Five-time champion Novak Djokovic headlines the 2021 Rolex Paris Masters

The ATP tour heads to France for the 2021 Paris Masters, which is the last Masters 1000 event on the calendar. Five-time champion Novak Djokovic is back in action for the first time since the US Open and is the top seed in Paris.

Defending champion Daniil Medvedev is seeded second with Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud, Hubert Hurkacz, and Jannik Sinner completing the top eight seeds. Former champions Andy Murray and Karen Khachanov also feature in the draw.

With action set to begin on Monday, let's take a look at how the draw could unfold.

First quarter: Andrey Rublev, Cameron Norrie will look to halt the Novak Djokovic charge

Novak Djokovic with his 2019 Rolex Paris Masters title
Novak Djokovic with his 2019 Rolex Paris Masters title

Top-seeded players: [1] Novak Djokovic, [5] Andrey Rublev, [10] Cameron Norrie and [15] Gael Monfils

Expected quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic vs Andrey Rublev

Dark horse: Taylor Fritz

Analysis: Novak Djokovic will been seen in action for the first time since the US Open, where he was defeated by Daniil Medvedev in the final. Even though the Serb has not played any tennis in recent weeks, he remains one of the favorites for the title in Paris.

Djokovic has received a bye in the first round and has been drawn to face Marton Fucsovics or Fabio Fognini in the second round. The Serb owns a combined 11-0 head-to-head advantage against the two players, meaning he should not be tested too much in his opener.

Meanwhile, Adrian Mannarino and Gael Monfils could meet in the second round. However, Mannarino will first have to get past Nikoloz Basilashvili, while Monfils faces a qualifier in his opener.

One of the aforementioned trio is slated to meet Novak Djokovic in the third round. Once again, the Serb should not have much trouble progressing, considering he owns a mammoth 23-0 head-to-head advantage against them.

Indian Wells champion Cameron Norrie opens his campaign against Federico Delbonis. The Brit could then lock horns with Reilly Opelka or Filip Krajinovic in the second round.

BNP Paribas Open champion Cameron Norrie is in Djokovic's quarter
BNP Paribas Open champion Cameron Norrie is in Djokovic's quarter

The matchup between Krajinovic and Opelka is an interesting one, given both players have the weapons to excel indoors. However, Opelka is currently on a three-match losing streak and will need to summon his best tennis to get past the 2017 Paris runner-up.

Lorenzo Sonego and Taylor Fritz are also in this section of the draw and will cross swords in the first round. Fritz has been in great touch in recent weeks and owns a 100% record against the Italian on hardcourts.

The winner of that match is projected to face fifth seed Andrey Rublev in the second round; the Russian has received a bye in the first round.

Rublev is Djokovic's projected opponent in the quarterfinals, but he is by no means a lock to make the last-eight considering his recent form.

Predicted quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic def. Cameron Norrie

Second Quarter: Stefanos Tsitsipas' quest for first Paris Masters title littered with obstacles

Stefanos Tsitsipas at the 2021 US Open
Stefanos Tsitsipas at the 2021 US Open

Top-seeded players: [3] Stefanos Tsitsipas, [7] Hubert Hurkacz, [9] Felix Auger-Aliassime and [14] Roberto Bautista Agut

Expected quarterfinal: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Hubert Hurkacz

Dark horse: Andy Murray

Analysis: Stefanos Tsitsipas will look to put his disappointing campaigns at Indian Wells and Vienna behind him when he takes the court in Paris-Bercy. The Greek has received a bye in the opening round and will face either Lloyd Harris or Alex de Minaur in the second round.

While Tsitsipas owns a resounding 6-0 head-to-head advantage against the Aussie, he has never faced Harris before.

If Harris manages to get past De Minaur, he could prove to be a handful for Tsitsipas, as his game is tailor-made for indoor conditions.

Elsewhere, Roberto Bautista Agut begins his Paris Masters campaign against James Duckworth.

Interestingly, no other first-round matches in this quarter have been set in stone. Jan-Lennard Struff, Andy Murray, Laslo Djere, and Felix Auger-Aliassime have all been drawn to face qualifiers.

Hubert Hurkacz, meanwhile, has received a bye in the first round thanks to his top-eight seeding.

Predicted quarterfinal: Hubert Hurkacz def. Stefanos Tsitsipas

Third Quarter: Can Alexander Zverev continue his fine run of form

Alexander Zverev is one of the tournament favorites
Alexander Zverev is one of the tournament favorites

Top-seeded players: [4] Alexander Zverev, [6] Casper Ruud, [11] Diego Schwartzman and [16] Grigor Dimitrov

Expected quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev vs Casper Ruud

Dark horse: Karen Khachanov

Analysis: 2020 runner-up Alexander Zverev has received a bye in the first round and will open his campaign against Dusan Lajovic or Mackenzie McDonald in the second round.

Neither Lajovic nor McDonald has managed to win more than one match at an event in the last couple of months. They are unlikely to pose much of a threat to Zverev, who is in the final of the Vienna Open at the time of writing.

Zverev could face either Grigor Dimitrov or Karen Khachanov in the third round, in what could be his first big test.

Dimitrov opens his campaign against Richard Gasquet, while 2018 champion Khachanov has been drawn to face a qualifier first up.

Elsewhere, the in-form Diego Schwartzman will face the resilient John Millman, with the winner set to take on Frances Tiafoe or a qualifier in the second round.

Alexander Bublik, meanwhile, opens his campaign against Dan Evans. This will be their second meeting in approximately three months after Bublik got the better of the Brit at the Toronto Masters.

The winner of the Bublik-Evans clash will take on sixth seed Casper Ruud in the second round.

Predicted quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev def. Frances Tiafoe

Fourth Quarter: Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner on a collision course

Daniil Medvedev is seeded second at the Paris Masters
Daniil Medvedev is seeded second at the Paris Masters

Top-seeded players: [2] Daniil Medvedev, [8] Jannik Sinner, [12] Pablo Carreno Busta and [13] Aslan Karatsev

Expected quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner

Dark horse: Carlos Alcaraz

Analysis: Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner have been placed in one of the more straightforward sections of the draw.

Sinner and Medvedev have both received opening-round byes. Medvedev has been drawn to face Ilya Ivashka or Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the second round, while Sinner could face the red-hot Carlos Alcaraz in his opener.

Alcaraz opens his 2021 Paris Masters campaign against wildcard Pierre Hugues-Herbert in the first round.

Jannik Sinner finds himself in Medvedvev's quarter
Jannik Sinner finds himself in Medvedvev's quarter

Home-favorite Benoit Paire opens his campaign against 12th seed Pablo Carreno Busta. Paire owns an 8-4 head-to-head advantage against Carreno Busta and even managed to register five consecutive victories against the Spaniard between 2018-19.

Talented American Sebastian Korda faces Aslan Karatsev in the first round. Korda handed Karatsev a 6-3, 6-0 beatdown in Miami this year, but the Russian has rediscovered some of his early-season form and recently lifted the Kremlin Cup.

2016 Paris Masters semifinalist Marin Cilic opens his campaign against Spaniard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

Predicted quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev def. Jannik Sinner

Semifinal predictions

Novak Djokovic def. Hubert Hurkacz

Daniil Medvedev def. Alexander Zverev

Predicted champion

Daniil Medvedev

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