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Wise minds have said that great transitions must happen smoothly and slowly for best results. The opposite is true in Tennis as the French Open champion Rafael Nadal got a mere two days (that is including his necessary duties as the Grand Slam champion, and traveling from Paris to London) to get acquainted to the nimble footwork, fast court speed and the relatively low bouncing lawns of the Queens Club from the slow, high bouncing and slippery clay courts of Roland Garros.
This transition between the two most contrasting surfaces in tennis is fast, in fact, too fast for many people to adjust completely, and the two tournament grass court season is way too short for most people to comprehend, but these two anomalies, in fact, are a boon to the game. The green lawns of Wimbledon and the pristine white clothing provide a different viewing pleasure to the eyes from the long, grueling clay court season with slippery courts, red socks and remnants of foot marks. Moreover, the shortness of season further accentuates the status of Wimbledon as the most sort after Grand Slam of the four—the Holy Grail of Tennis.
Being the oldest and the most prestigious slam also gives this tournament many luxuries. The strict dress code, the traditions and most importantly the altering the tournament seeds based on grass court skill and form instead of ATP rankings. Roger Federer has been seeded No. 1 despite him losing his world No. 1 ranking to Nadal after French Open, Andy Roddick has been seeded ahead of Robin Soderling and Nikolay Davydenko, while Lleyton Hewitt has been 11 places higher at No. 15—an assurance of avoiding any top players till round four. While some may argue the seedings as wrong or unfair and point out nitpicks in their ranking, it is indeed refreshing to see these changes. After all, how could one expect Nadal as the bigger favorite than Federer when the latter, the defending champion, has reached seven consecutive finals at this tournament winning six of those?
Anyhow, the draws have been released and it is surely going to be tricky to predict anything beforehand given the inconsistent form shown by the top players in the tune up events.
Federer’s Quarter
Nikolay Davydenko, Marcos Baghdatis, Thomas Berdych, Ernests Gulbis, Robin Soderling, Lleyton Hewitt…..what is common between these players? They used 2010 to snap their half-dozen or one-dozen long losing streaks against the Swiss Maestro, usually in three close sets (four close sets for Soderling). Who will be the next in line? Fernando Gonzalez? Phillip Kohlschreiber? James Blake on a hot day? I do not know.
What I do know is that no player of such potential features in Federer’s draw. He has already lost to Davydenko and Berdych—who are in his quarter—and he knows better than anyone on how not to lose consecutively to one single player, especially when their next potential meeting would be a best-of-five contest on grass.
Semifinalist: Roger Federer
Djokovic’s Quarter
If the tune up events to Wimbledon—Queen’s and Halle—were significant indicators of players’ performance at SW19, then this quarter is most definitely a loaded one, as it features a champion—Hewitt—and a runner up—Mardy Fish—in its lot of 32. However, it is Novak Djokovic and Roddick who are the favorites to reach the semis according to paper. Their path is anything but easy.
The Serb, in addition to his allergies to pollens (can they be found aplenty on grass?), may have to deal with the huge serve and volley player in Taylor Dent as early as the second round and Hewitt in the fourth who is high on confidence after a title on grass, a victory against the King of Grass, and an elevation in the seedings. Roddick himself might face tough encounters against Kohlschreiber (I got the spelling right for the second consecutive time!). Marin Cilic may not have shown good results on grass, but his nimble movement certainly bodes well for the green turf. Then there is the showman Gael Monfils who isn’t exactly James Bond on grass, but can always be expected to perform some of his theatrics on a tennis court regardless of the surface.
Wimbledon is really important for both the top seeds due to their erratic form this season, and it would be great if Roddick goes one up to his performance last year, but something tells me that he blew away his last chance to win Wimbledon in the second set tie-break last year.
Semifinalist: Marin Cilic
Murray’s Quarter
Soccer World Cup is going strong, and England did themselves no good by virtually hitting a self-goal in their match against USA. The event and its subsequent tragedy would be enough to garner away a lot of attention from the Britain’s biggest hope for a male Grand Slam champion since 1937. As much as Andy Murray likes the on court vociferous support for him, the off court pressure by the high expectations of the media and the countrymen hardly excites him. The World Cup coupled with his relative lack of success this year after his finals in Melbourne will do well for him to reduce the expectations. Look out for him to at least repeat his semifinals performance last year.
His draw is filled Verdasco, Tsonga, Almagro—all dangerous players on their day, but can they go deep enough to challenge him on grass? His toughest challenge will be from the champion at Queen’s—Sam Querry—but then Murray is a master of absorbing big servers with relatively weak ground strokes.
Semifinalist: Andy Murray
Nadal’s Quarter
The reigning French Open champion’s initial few words after winning his crown were two folds: he is really motivated for this year’s US Open, and that he will try to give his best performance at Wimbledon. From his part of the draw, it is evident that he will need to do the latter if he wishes to repeat his feat in 2008. From the promising Kei Nishikori in the first, to the hard hitting Blake in the second, Gulbis in the third, Isner (who took a set off him in Australia) in the fourth and the famous Soderling in the Quarters, Nadal’s line up is loaded with players who can go on a hot streak for long enough to upset his game, especially on a faster surface like this. His biggest assurance, though, will be that none of these players can move well on grass on which he feels very much at home.
The major cause of concern for Nadal is the lack of match practice he has had owing to the early exit at Queen’s and hence the strong list of early threats may prove fatal for the 2008 champion. He may still adapt himself in time to reach the semis, but there are enough big hitters in the draw to hand him the potential upset.
Semifinalist: Robin Soderling
Dark Horse: John Isner
Semi Finals: Federer d. Cilic, Soderling d. Murray
Finals: During the late nineties, Pete Sampras was no longer in his prime, but still used Wimbledon to shrug off his lackluster first half of the year. Roger Federer is reaching his thirties and the same can now be expected of him. Look out for him getting past his sweet sixteen on fourth of July.
Champion: Roger Federer
