Basketball at the London Olympics: US (A) against the World

Sometimes, even ‘domination’ isn’t enough of a description; sometimes a better, perhaps much harsher word needs to be used. Destruction? Obliteration? Devastation?

How about just ‘supremacy’, because that is what exactly the USA Men’s Basketball Team has imposed over the rest of the world over the course of the last 72 years up till the 2008 Beijing Olympics. In the 16 Olympic Games from 1936-2008 that USA participated in, the Americans won 13 golds, 1 silver, and 2 bronze medals, holding on to a 123-5 record in Olympic basketball. Three of those five losses came in the same year (2004).

For the rest of the basketball-playing world, who field the best that their country has to offer for the Olympic Games every four years, the brutal truth is that the battle is pretty much for second place. The only way that USA’s Men’s squad doesn’t win another gold in the 2012 London Olympics – starting from July 29th and commencing on August 12th – is if one (or two) of those other contenders can pull off a surprise victory (or two) over the USA and level the playing field. It has been done three times out of 16 Olympics, so it is far from impossible. And with the level of basketball rising internationally, it far more likely now that it was back in 1992.

Still, USA have overwhelming odds stacked in their favour: William-Hill puts them at 1/6 odds to win the gold medal again this year; the next best is Spain with 4/1.

This Olympics, like almost every year, it’s USA against the world. For anyone else in ‘the world’ contingent to pull off a victory, they have to expose any weaknesses that America’s squad of uber-duper stars may have and give in their perfect performance. For stretches of the practice games leading up to the Olympics, we have seen that other teams are more than capable of that. Even though USA has a perfect 4-0 record in the exhibitions so far, not all of those wins have been satisfactory to a squad that is used to demolishing opponents with ease. After easily handling Dominican Republic in their first meeting, USA fell behind to Brazil early in Game 2 before grinding out a 80-69 victory. After the first quarter against Great Britain, USA had no trouble smashing their opponents away for a 40 point win. But in their most recent encounter against contenders Argentina, USA saw their opponents get within three points in the game’s last minutes before surviving for a six-point victory. They will play their last practice game in a few games against perhaps their toughest opponent: Spain. Although it would be just another exhibition match before the real tournament begins on July 29th, Spain will be looking for any cracks in Team USA’s formidable structure.

The most glaring crack, of course, is size. With Tyson Chandler as their only true Center, USA are a smaller team than the rest of the world. The other post players in the squad – Kevin Love and Anthony Davis – are inexperienced at this level. This will make any team that decides to focus on going down low an immediate threat to America.

Another potential ‘problem’ for the USA – and I say ‘problem’ in perhaps the worst sense of the word – is that they have too many options. This of course makes them unstoppable against any opponent for the majority of the game, but if they forced to face high-pressure situations in the fourth quarter, who will they defer to? Basketball games, even international ones, can turn into isolation play in the final minutes. Although USA has enough talent to ensure that most games don’t even matter in the final minutes, we all remember what happened in the final of the 2008 Olympics, when Spain posed a strong challenge until the fourth quarter and one alpha dog in a team full of alpha dogs – Kobe Bryant – took charge to ensure that USA won the game and the gold medal.

If USA is faced with a situation like that again, who will be that alpha dog? The ‘alpha dog’ isn’t necessarily the scorer in these moments, but is the guy that the coach trusts with the ball in his hands when the going gets tough. The US have many to choose from: Kobe, of course, and Durant, LeBron, Chris Paul, or Carmelo Anthony. On any given day, guys like Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams, and James Harden can play that role too. If you think that there are already too many ‘hero-ball’ cooks to spoil the broth already, imagine what would’ve happened if Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade were also in this side! Most other international squads have one clear-cut closer for the clutch moments.

Let’s take a look at each contender, and how they can exploit USA’s perceived ‘weaknesses’:

Spain: Widely accepted as the second-best team in the world, Spain are the biggest challengers once again to USA’s supremacy, but like the Americans, they have also been hit with the injury bug. The player that I was most looking forward to seeing in the Olympics – Ricky Rubio – will be out of action in the tournament. Still, Spain are formidable without him. They have size to threaten the Americans in the shape of the talented Gasol brothers – Pau and Marc – in the middle. Pau Gasol in particular has enjoyed a resume as one of the most successful international players in the world and this is probably his final Olympic games. Watch for him to come out strong in this tournament. Spain’s frontline also features Congo’s naturalized player Serge Ibaka, giving them perhaps the strongest frontcourt in the tournament. In close contests, Spain will probably choose between Juan Carlos Navarro or Rudy Fernandez to be their closer. Experienced guard Jose Calderon will man the point for Spain as a starter in Rubio’s absence. Spain conquered Europe by winning the 2011 EuroBasket tournament and will now want to conquer the world.

France: France were surprise finalists at last year’s EuroBasket tournament, and although this team will be without their best post player – Joakim Noah – they still have a good mix of talent to count themselves amongst the best of the rest. Spurs’ point guard Tony Parker – who was the top player at the EuroBasket – returns as the team’s leader and alpha dog. Nicolas Batum will join him in the backcourt. In the absence of Noah, France still have some NBA names to look out for in the front court: Boris Diaw, Ronny Turiaf (the best cheerleader in the NBA), and Kevin Seraphin.

Argentina: An experienced team that plays with a lot of pride, and the winners of the 2004 gold medal, Argentina has a way of getting under the Americans’ skins, and they have the weapons to give them a hard time, in the post and the perimeter. Unfortunately, they haven’t really been in the best form in games leading up to this tournament. Still, a squad that boasts of Manu Ginobili (another legend in his last Olympic run), Luis Scola, Carlos Delfino, and Andres Nocioni cannot be taken lightly.

Lithuania: I don’t know too much about Lithuania’s national squad, but I do know that, like every year, they will be a well-oiled unselfish basketball machine. Lithuania haven’t exactly been in overwhelming form as they step into this tournament, but they have some talented young players in the squad who will be looking to make a mark in the Olympics. Lithuania won gold at last year’s U19 FIBA Men’s World Championship, and their best player (and soon to be Toronto Raptor) Jonas Valanciunas – a dominating Center – should be one to keep your eye on. Also leading this team will be fellow Raptor Linas Kleiza and sharpshooting point guard Sarunas Jasikevicius: watch for him to take cold-blooded long-range shots at the end of games.

Brazil: Brazil could really be the dark horses of this championship. Runners-up to Argentina at last years’ FIBA Americas tournament, Brazil boast a good front court of Nene, Anderson Varejao, and Tiago Splliter. Their backcourt isn’t bad, either: experience NBAer Leandro Barbosa will be taking charge of matters and Marcelo Huertas is a good shooter to spread the floor. They are an experienced international team together and I predict that they could go fairly deep into the tournament.

The team that they are all taking aim at is the USA. America can almost be defined by the host of players who didn’t make the squad – through injury, through snubs, through refusal to play – than those who did.

First, feast your eyes on the current lineup of USA superstars: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, Tyson Chandler, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Love, and Anthony Davis. Yes, as I previously addressed, this team is small, but they have more than enough speed and athleticism to match that. They have great shooters, great penetrators, great finisher, and great perimeter defenders. Between the outstretched arms of LeBron, Durant, Kobe, Westbrook, Iguodala, and rookie Davis, it will be USA’s defense that should scare opponents the most. And on the other end, opponents will have to pick their poison. For every good offensive player an opposing team will have, USA will have four or five better ones.

The 2010 World Championships featured a USA team with one clear-cut offensive option – Kevin Durant – who led the tournament in scoring. This time around, Durant will share the load with many others. Theoretically, there may not be enough balls to go around; but as we saw in the 2008 Olympics, Coach Mike Krzyzewski has done a good job in keeping his teams unselfish and the offense flowing.

Now, look at the list of American players who won’t be in London: 2011 NBA MVP Derrick Rose, America’s best player from the 2008 Olympics Dwyane Wade, America’s two best Centers Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum, America’s best pass-first point guard Rajon Rondo, All Star power forwards Chris Bosh, Blake Griffin, and LaMarcus Aldridge, and 2010’s starting point guard Chauncey Billups. Add guys like Rudy Gay, Josh Smith, and perhaps Eric Gordon, and you have a B-Team that – when healthy – can only outplay every other team the world but can also give the A-Team a ton of headaches.

If some of those guys were healthy and in the mix – like Rose, Wade, Howard, Rondo, and Bosh – then the 2012 Team USA could’ve really been considered one of the greatest basketball ensembles in history. If there were enough balls to go around.

But let’s shift our focus back to those who are there: every team has been hit by injuries, but USA have the depth in talent to replace one injured good player with another healthy good player. USA’s 2012 Olympic Men’s team are definitely the favourites to win repeat gold, and no one will be surprised if they run through the tournament undefeated. No matter the advantages in size or the ‘alpha dog clarity’ that other teams may possess, in most cases, more talent will outweigh less talent. And USA has the most talent – by far – of them all. Watch for Kevin Durant, who seems to be almost genetically designed to be a star in international play, become the cream of the crop and lead the team in scoring like he did in 2010. Watch for LeBron James to run the most feared freight train in the world from defense to offense with ease. Watch for Kobe to be the mature (gulp!) voice in the backcourt and provide points when it seems like points are toughest to get. Watch for Tyson Chandler and Anthony Davis to defend the post, for Chris Paul and Deron Williams to set up the plays, for Russell Westbook to be a spark-plug off the bench in the mould of Wade in 2008, and for Carmelo Anthony to score in bunches too, like he always does in international play.

It may not be a devastation or even a supremacy over the rest, but when it’s all said and done, Team USA will rise to the top again.

My predictions:

Gold: USASilver: SpainBronze: Brazil

Now let’s see who will be standing on that podium in London on August 12th as the best basketball teams in the world!