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Sam Stapleton
It’s the best time of the year and the madness of March is upon us. With all the upsets and parody this year in college basketball, this tournament has the potential to be one of the craziest and most unpredictable ever. I’ve decided to break down the tournament region by region with a Final 4 pick, an opening round upset pick, and a player to watch, along with revealing my national champion pick. So, without further ado, in my Dickie V voice, “Let’s get this madness started babyyy!”
South Region
Final Four Pick: FloridaThis region, which features the number one overall seed Florida, has a lot of firepower at the top. #2 Kansas is very much a contender to win it all. But, that depends on the health of Joel Embiid. Fellow freshman Andrew Wiggins has elevated his aggression level and overall play in the last part of the season, but Embiid is the difference between the Jayhawks at the very least reaching another final four.
#3 Syracuse was undefeated a month ago, and there was talk that they were undoubtedly the best team in the nation. Not so much anymore. But with their potent 2-3 zone, they will be in every game, and with the right match-ups, still remain a final four threat. #4 UCLA and #5 VCU pose a threat to knocking off a top team on any given night. This region is too tough at the top for either team to make a deep run if the chalk remains intact as projected, but UCLA with their talent, and VCU with their “Havoc”, have the potential to bust some brackets.
However, Florida is the team to beat and they will knock off any challenger on their way to the Final Four. This is a Billy Donovan type of team, and Donovan knows a thing or two about winning championships. They are a balanced team, with a good mix of veteran upperclassmen, and talented underclassmen. They have four guys who have been to three consecutive Elite Eights. This is the year they get over the hump. They are an elite defensive team, equally good in man-to-man and zone defense. Michael Frazier can open up a game with his 3-point shooting, the enforcer Patrick Young has been lifting weights and drinking protein shakes since he could learn how to walk, and SEC Player of the Year Scottie Wilbekin is the type of PG you want as he is cool, calm, and collected.
Upset Watch: 11 Dayton over 6 Ohio StateAs much as I love Aaron Craft and how hard the Buckeyes defend, at times they can be offensively challenged, putting them on upset watch. Combine that with a Dayton team that has played much better towards the end of the regular season and has a bunch of motivated Ohio players who weren’t recruited by Ohio State, and Buckeye nation might be looking towards football season earlier than expected. If they are able to get by Dayton, the poor shooting Buckeyes will likely face their worst nightmare in the next round—Syracuse and their 2-3 zone.
Player to Watch: Andrew Wiggins, KansasWith the status of teammate Joel Embiid up in the air still, it is up to Wiggins to live up to his phenom billing. The potential #1 overall pick of next year will be expected to continue his high scoring and efficient shooting. If he can, Kansas can beat anybody, even without Embiid. But as is always the case with young players, even the best ones, the question is can he be consistent throughout the entire tournament. Remember, it just takes for one off-game come tournament time to end your season. That’s a lot of pressure for a 19-year old.
Shabazz Napier of UConn
East Region
Final Four Pick: Michigan StateDid you know that every senior class at Michigan State has reached a final four under Head Coach Tom Izzo at least once before graduating? Well that will change if this Michigan State (#4 seed) team doesn’t make a final four run. Seniors Keith Appling and Adreian Payne don’t want to be the first. The good thing is they have all the pieces to do it. Now that they are healthy, they are finally clicking. Coming off a Big Ten tournament championship win; Appling, Payne, and sophomore sensation Gary Harris will look to ride the momentum into the NCAA tourney, with future hall of famer Izzo leading the way.
However, to win, they will have to get past a possible Sweet 16 matchup with #1 seed Virginia to do so. The Cavaliers are coming off an ACC regular season and tournament championship and are more than capable of making a deep run. With their packed in, stingy defense, and deliberate, but efficient offense, they will not beat themselves. On the lower half of the bracket, keep an eye out for Big 12 player of the year Melvin Ejim and #3 Iowa State. They rely on their versatility and Head Coach Fred Hoiberg a.k.a.”The Mayor” is a mastermind at creating and taking advantage of matchups. However, they tend to have trouble when they have to play a bigger, more physical team. That is why I see Michigan St. defeating them in an entertaining Elite Eight matchup, sending Sparty Nation to a final four.
Upset Watch: 11 Providence over 6 North CarolinaProvidence, fresh off a Big East tournament championship over America’s heartthrob Creighton, is more than capable of playing with this Tar Heel team. North Carolina is talented, but inconsistent, as well as a poor shooting team, both from the 3pt line and the free throw line, which is a recipe for an upset. Regardless of outcome, we will be treated to a great guard matchup with Carolina guard Marcus “Mr. 2nd Half” Paige and Providence dynamic guard Bryce Cotton. Cotton is an iron man as he practically plays every minute of every game. He sees more court time than Lil’ Boosie.
Player to Watch: Shabazz Napier, UCONNI didn’t even mention #7 seed UConn in my East Region breakdown, but I’d be damned if I didn’t mention Husky point guard Shabazz Napier here. This do-it-all guard is capable of leading his squad to the 2nd weekend in the tournament, including getting past #2 seed Villanova. Three years ago he was playing a supporter role as a freshman in a backcourt with superstar Kemba Walker on their way to a national title. Now it’s time for ‘Bazz to star in a leading role. Can he shock the nation and lead this UConn team to best picture?
Doug McDermott of Creighton.
West Region
Final 4 Pick: Oklahoma StateThrow all the seedings out the window in this region because I’m going with my eye test. Oklahoma St. may have the resume of a #8 seed, but they have the talent of a top 3 seed team. As we’ve seen throughout the season, anybody can beat anybody on any given day so I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Oklahoma State will run through this region on their way to a final four. In every potential matchup they will most likely have the best player on the court with future lottery pick Marcus Smart, always giving them a chance to win.
Their biggest test will be in the 2nd game against #1 seed Arizona. Arizona is a very good team, but I am still not sold on them. The Wildcats, with their elite athleticism, lock-up defensively but at times lack elite scoring, and in particular elite shooting. I believe the winner of this game will be the team to make the final four out of this region. “Batman” Marcus Smart, along with “Robin” in Markel Brown, and “The Butler” in sharp-shooting Phil Forte will get the job done for the Cowboys and flop, I mean play, their way to Arlington, Texas. Speaking of flopping…
The bottom half of this region features #2 Wisconsin and #3 Creighton, as well as dangerous #7 Oregon. Never count out a Bo Ryan coached Wisconsin team, and this one is more offensively talented than usual. I see their swing offense and sharp shooting taking them to the Elite Eight before eventually getting knocked off by Oklahoma St. Also never count out a Creighton team led by Dougie McBuckets. Speaking of Dougie McBuckets… I’ll get to him more in a minute.
Upset Watch: 12 North Dakota St. over 5 OklahomaSometimes a great coaching job can lead to disappointing results. Hold on, just hear me out. Lon Kruger has done an incredible coaching job with the underwhelming talent (underwhelming by elite Big 12 standards) on his Oklahoma team, keeping them in contention all season for the Big 12 title. They are a good team, but nothing more. Along with the fact that they are a young team, I see them as a possible upset victim. In a one-and-done setting, a lower seed like North Dakota St., which features a physical, athletic front line, will not be intimidated from the jump. They are not a great shooting team, but they don’t shoot many 3s, and they don’t take bad shots in general, as well as the fact that they don’t turn the ball over at a high rate. I have a feeling Oklahoma will be in for a 40-minute battle in a game that will be decided in the final possessions.
Player to Watch: Doug McDermott, CreightonLet me introduce you to the best player in the nation, the best walk-on in the nation, and the coach’s son—Doug McDermott. If you follow college basketball at all you are familiar with the greatness that is Dougie McBuckets. And if you don’t follow college basketball, you’ve probably stopped reading long ago, and you’ll probably win your office pool based off which team has the prettiest colors.
In my generation, we’ve been lucky enough to be blessed with the presence of J.J. Redick, Jimmer Fredette, and now Doug McDermott. And by “We”, I mean us college basketball fans (I know what you were thinking!). McDermott continues to rise up the all-time scoring list and there is no team more reliant on the production of one guy as Creighton is with McDermott. As great as shooter as he is, his most underrated quality is his ability to move without the ball. (A typical Creighton possession consists of him setting about 9 screens before getting either a good-angled post-up, or an open, in-rhythm 3-pointer. Whether his team makes a deep run, or is bounced early in the tournament, let’s appreciate the greatness that is Dougie McBuckets while we still can before he turns into just another competent NBA role player who is designated to corner 3s and can’t guard his position.
Russ Smith of Louisville
North Region
Final 4 Pick: LouisvilleThis was the toughest region for me to make a final four pick. In a season, where there are no dominant teams, #1 seed Wichita State and #4 seed Louisville were equally appealing to me. Louisville is peaking at the right time, but how much of it is due to a lack of competition in the American Athletic Conference? Yet you can’t go wrong picking the defending champs and a Rick Pitino team as he always gets his teams playing their best come tournament time with their up-tempo, pressing style. In an era defined by parody and the “one-and-done”, do we dare throw out the possibility of back-to-back national champions?
Speaking of back-to-back, #1 Wichita State will have something to say about that as they look to return to their second consecutive final four and be the first team in over 30 years to have a perfect season. If there was a season to pull it off, this would be it. With no consensus favorite, Wichita’s blend of experience and talent can put a storybook ending on this Cinderella story two years in the making. They’re a #1 seed and undefeated for a reason. They feature two pros in Ron “Gordon Hayward” Baker and Cleanthony Early, along with arguably the most efficient point guard the nation in Fred Van Vleet and an elite defender and athlete in Tekele Cotton, who is smooth as silk. Just sit back and enjoy this dunk.
Upset Watch: 11 Tennessee over 6 UMassThe Vols were on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday, but they are playing their best basketball at the right time. First they have to get by Iowa in the play-in game in Dayton on Wednesday. I think they will and they’ll carry the momentum over to their game against UMass later in the week. Any fatigue they might have from the play-in game will be overcome by adrenaline. UMass is a fun team to watch (especially senior point guard Chaz Williams), but a frustrating team to root for. They have both talent and experience, but after a strong start to the season and quick cameo in the Top 25, they’ve struggled somewhat as of late. This #6 seed finished 6th in their conference. They play hard and get after it on defense, but at times look like an AAU team on offense. UMass needs to be ready for a street brawl against a physical Tennessee team and if the Minutemen don’t bring their “A game” for 40 minutes, their one shining moment will be over in seconds.
Player to Watch: Russ Smith, LouisvilleThe new and improved version of “Russdiculous” returned for his senior season and thank goodness for Louisville fans and basketball fans everywhere that he did. There’s never a dull moment with dynamic guard Russ Smith. You can turn on a game halfway through and you’ll have no idea if he’s 0-11 or 8-11 with his erratic, although much improved shot selection. But, the kid plays hard, and clearly he’s a winner. As he goes Louisville goes. However, that’s not to say that he has to put up big numbers every game like McDermott has to do for Creighton. There’s talent all over the court surrounding Russ. Athletic big man Montrezl Harrell has developed into an absolute beast down low, and Louisville also returns the Most Outstanding Player from the last year’s Final Four in sharp-shooter Luke “They’re Saying Luuuuuuke Not Booooo” Hancock. If Smith can put these players along with the rest of the Louisville team in positions to succeed, then Russdiculous and Louisville are looking at another title run.
Final 4: 1 Florida over 4 Michigan StateIn a battle of arguably the two best teams when at full health, the Gators will come out of top. The strength and athleticism of Patrick Young will be able to neutralize the inside/out game of Spartans big man Adreian Payne. Scottie Wilbekin will get the best of Keith Appling in the matchup of gritty senior point guards. Guard Gary Harris will have to play like the potential lottery pick that he is for the Spartans to have a shot. But, the overall versatility and balance of Florida will be too much for Michigan St. to overcome.
The Gators have a flurry of athletes with wingspan (shout out to Jay Bilas) who they can throw at the Spartans defensively and on the boards. The key is Florida sharpshooter Michael Frazier’s ability to stretch the floor. If he can provide proper spacing with his long range shooting, the Gators will be moving on. If he has an off game, Michigan St. chances are a lot better as it will allow for them to pack in their defense and make the Gators beat them over top. But, I have a feeling Frazier will be locked in, and the Gators will be moving on in a close one.
Final 4: 4 Louisville over 8 Oklahoma StateThe journey stops here for the Oklahoma State Cowboys. As good as the Cowboys are on the perimeter led by Marcus Smart, they lack an inside presence, and this is the game where it finally takes a toll on them. The growth and development in the game of Louisville big man Montrezl Harrell might be the biggest reason for Louisville’s late season dominance. Harrell will have his way with the Cowboys and the Louisville pressure will wear down the guard trio of Smart, Markel Brown, and Phil Forte. With their athletes, Oklahoma St. can limit the production of Louisville guard Russ Smith, and Marcus Smart will do anything in his power to keep the game close. But in the end Harrell and his fellow Cardinals will be too much and pull away by double figures in the end.
2014 NCAA I Champs??
National Championship: 1 Florida over 4 Louisville (68-64)This is your classic matchup of pupil vs. teacher. In a different lifetime, Billy Donovan was once the starting point for Rick Pitino’s Providence team, leading them to a Final Four. 27 years later, Donovan is now a 2-time NCAA champion as coach of the Florida Gators, and Rick Pitino has turned Louisville into one of the best programs in the nation year in and year out. Will the balance and defensive efficiency of Florida win out over Louisville and its pressing style and constant changing of defenses? Will the versatility of Florida be able to shut down Russdiculous? Will the last back-to-back champs be able to stop last year’s defending champs from doing the same?
All these questions make for an entertaining championship title game—One that will feature a lot of 8-0 runs and a lot of in-game adjustments by the “grasshopper” and the “master”. Louisville thrives on their pressure wearing down and rattling their opponents. I don’t see this effecting the Gators, as they are an experienced team with a senior point guard and the SEC player of the year in Scottie Wilbekin. The Gators with their tenacious defense along with the divine powers of Timothy Tebow will outlast the Cardinals, and cut down the nets. Let’s all put our hands together and give a gator chomp for the champs. Gator nation, it’s your one shining moment.
