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The Eastern Conference Finals are upon us and considering the way the Western Conference Finals have turned up till now, one can only pray for a series that is far more intense and much more like the stereotypical play-off basketball that we know and love.
The banter may have already started with LeBron, in his very characteristic adaptation of Jordan, trying to make much out of a nonchalant Vogel statement about the Heat being just another team. Vogel wasn’t by any means being demeaning towards LeBron, but after the rocking encounter with the Bulls and the 7-day gap between games, he would have possibly realized that there are chances of some slacking and lethargy creeping in. It was his way of making something out of nothing, getting himself and his team fired up and to get the passion up and rolling. The game-1 loss to Chicago would most certainly be lingering on his mind still and he would by no means be ready for an upset again.
His reasons may not seem so obvious to many, but I guess they aren’t that hard to decipher either. The Miami Heat is just on a different stratosphere when it comes to basketball talent as compared to the blue-collared Indiana Pacers. If you just look and compare James’ regular season numbers to the rest of the Pacers’ squad, one can make the following observations:
1. James averaged more than 10 points/game over the highest scoring player for the Pacers i.e. Paul George.
2. James’ average of 0.9 blocks/game was bettered only by Roy Hibbert for the Pacers.
3. James’ average of 1.7 steals/game was bettered by a margin of 0.1 by Paul George.
4. James’ 3-pt shooting average is far better than that of any player in the whole Pacers’ squad.
5. James’ field goal percentage is better than anybody in the Pacers’ squad.
6. James’ averages just one assist less than the total assists averaged by Hill and George together.
If you need any more convincing, consider the match-ups:
Wade vs Stephenson
Chalmers vs Hill
James vs George
Bosh vs West
Anderson vs Hibbert
Other than the last match-up that Hibbert wins comprehensively, the Pacers are flustering short in all the remaining match-ups. Is it obvious for the Pacers to feel overwhelmed? Yes. Is it but natural that Vogel would try to calm down the nerves and get his players focused by trying to draw the attention of his team away from the belligerent talent of the Heat? Certainly, yes. Can this also infuse a false sense of over-confidence in the Heat? Yes. Was LeBron thus justified in using the opportunity to get his team stirred up and get the intensity levels high? Obviously yes.
However, another thing to be reckoned is that the Pacers actually hold the season series over the Heat. They got this far after eliminating the veteran Knicks team, a team that many believed was designed to beat the Heat. They are legitimate contenders, but surely nobody’s favourites. They may have won 17 games less than Miami in the regular season, may not have been on any lengthy winning streak, but they have done enough to get the attention and the respect of Heat Coach Spoelstra.
And when the hooters do sound, it will be time for the Pacers to play and execute their brand of basketball; be unfazed by the pandemonium in Miami, be unperturbed by the euphoria surrounding the NBA Finals and just grind it out. They certainly aren’t talented enough to beat the Heat. However, they have often shown a desire and a spirit to override their lack of talent with indomitable perseverance and in-suppressible fight. They are a team that likes to get physical, do the dirty tasks well, put their bodies on the line and just knock the wind out of their opponents. It isn’t all-star basketball when the Pacers play. They don’t play the game that way, and they sure don’t care about the all-stars they face up against in the Heat squad.
Here is a blueprint of what the Pacers have to do to beat the Heat.
1. Hound the glass
This is, maybe, the only true mantra to win anything in the sport of basketball. The Pat Riley postulate as some may call them. Rebounds = Championships. The responsibility falls on the shoulders of Roy Hibbert, who finally seems to have come to terms with being the defensive anchor of a play-off team. Hibbert has been exceptional for the Pacers in the play-offs so far, averaging 9.6 rebounds/game to go with 2.5 blocks/game. The onus will be on him to try and pump up the numbers more. Try and grab over 12 rebounds, and force Spoelstra to keep Anderson in the game for longer stretches than try and go to his small line-up with Battier playing the 4. Hibbert should, and can, totally kill Bosh on the offensive glass, earn as many offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities for his team. This is imperative because the Pacers don’t shoot a high percentage from the field, and aren’t a free-scoring team like the Heat are.
The second chance opportunities will allow them to slow down the game. Another major positive for the Pacers has been the effort shown by Stephenson and George on the glass. They both average over 8 rebounds/game in the play-offs and with Stephenson’s stingy perimeter defence and his ability to surprise everyone with his offensive bursts, the Pacers have a legitimate chance. West, however, may prove to be the weak link as despite his staunch ability to set screens and box people out, he needs to get better on the rebounds. In short, the Miami Heat should not be allowed anything more than 5 offensive rebounds, and the Pacers should try and steal at least 10 offensive rebounds.
2. Take care of the ball:
The Pacers are renowned for their half-court defense. The Miami Heat will most certainly be hard-pressed to get into a free-scoring mode against the Pacers, and they would look to try and play the passing lanes, and force turnovers, and get steals so that they may just quicken up the pace and get some easy transition points using the hyperbolic athletic ability of Wade and James on the open-court. The Miami Heat are averaging over 9 steals a game in the play-offs this year, and if they manage to do the same against the pacers, they may actually manage to steal the game beyond the stingy Pacers defense. The Pacers, on the other hand, are also guilty of turning the ball over too often, and are averaging over 15 turnovers a game. This pattern, if repeated, can turn out to be criminal against the Heat. They need to ensure that Hill and George take better care of the ball, move it around the perimeter rather than going into isolation sets and be ever-ready to sprint back for transition defense.
3. Go Inside-Out:
The Miami Heat are a very accomplished defensive team in their own right, managing to hold down their opponents to under 95 points/game in the regular season and bettering the stats in the play-offs. The Pacers however wouldn’t mind that because they don’t actually score than often, and would be hardly perturbed by such numbers. However, the Pacers need to identify and exploit the single major deficiency in the Miami Heat’s half-court defensive sets. The Heat, other than maybe Anderson, lack a legitimate shot-blocker and despite the fact that they are almost unerring with their defensive rotations and are able to cover up in most situations, it still is an opportunity that the Pacers can look to exploit. The key is to ensure that the Miami Heat defence isn’t ever set and the floor is stretched out. The Pacers need to make their perimeter shots, go inside out and move the ball around and take advantage of any lapses in defensive rotations to get to the rim. I know it sounds far easier than it is, but this is maybe the only way that one can stretch the Miami defense, get the open lanes and use the explosiveness of Stephenson and George to get easy points in the paint.
4. Run-down the Miami shooters:
Miami is maybe the best in the league in terms of stretching and spacing the floor solely because they house some of the best spot-up shooters in the game – Ray Allen, Mario Chalmers, Shane Battier, Mike Miller and even Chris Bosh (Rashard Lewis hasn’t featured enough to deserve a mention). The fact that at any time the Heat have two or three spot-up shooters averaging over 40% from beyond the arc, actually makes the game much simpler for LeBron and Wade. They can slash and dash to the rim, and dish out the ball when trapped knowing that they have a high percentage look and a high percentage shooter getting to shoot the ball. Not without reason is LeBron’s assists so high. Not without reason can Dwayne Wade get through the entire play-offs shooting just a single shot from beyond the arc. The imperative for the Pacers is to play the best half-court defensive rotations of their life. They need to be always on their toes, converge on the driving Wade and LeBron, while being ever ready to fly out and force the spot-up shooter to take a contested shot or rather put the ball on the floor and shoot the far more tougher pull-up jumper. The probability of them contesting and altering a Ray Allen three-point is not very much, but it is a gamble that is worth taking, an effort that is worth putting.
This, in short, is what the Pacers need to do to win. They have showed enough spirit to make a believer out of me. The bad blood of last year’s conference finals still hasn’t been settled. Be prepared for a daunting, physical series.
