Champions Trophy: 5 reasons why Pakistan will evict South Africa today

Wahab Riaz celebrates taking the wicket of Kieron Pollard during the ICC Champions Trophy group B match between West Indies and Pakistan at The Oval on June 7, 2013 in London, England. (Getty Images)

That’s the beauty of the Champions Trophy. Just four days into the tournament and we already have an effective knockout match at our hands. Edgbaston will serve as the site for a do-or-die contest between South Africa and Pakistan in the 3rd match of Group B.

South Africa slumped to defeat against India as their dented bowling attack failed to make a mark against the solidity of the Indian batting line-up. The promising run-chase dwindled as South Africa’s middle order failed to take charge against the Indian spinners. Pakistan, on the other hand, were exposed up front by the pace of the West Indies attack. Their top-order batsmen looked surprised by the pace of Kemar Roach and if not for Misbah-ul-Haq and Nasir Jamshed, Pakistan would have slumped to a total below 100. With both the teams having suffered a loss, there will be no second chances in the encounter.

South Africa and Pakistan contested a series in March and also played a warm-up match in preparation of the Champions Trophy and hence the two teams will be well-aware of the threat that they pose to each other. The record, if we include the warm up match, is 3-3 and hence we have all the ingredients for a close contest. South Africa’s ambition to get rid of the choker tag matched by Pakistan’s desire to constantly stamp their ability in face of national distress will be at loggerheads. Here is a list of 5 reasons why I think Pakistan will bounce back in this competition with a win against the Proteas.

1. Weakened Bowling

It is a pity that this list begins with a South African weakness instead of a Pakistani strength but without the likes of Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel, South Africa’s bowling attack is close to toothless. Steyn’s ability to swing the ball at high speeds and his wicket taking ability was duly complemented by Morkel’s surprising bounce and the two together formed a rattling bowling pair; hunting in groups. With Morkel ruled out, Steyn is also unlikely to feature in this game and that will mean that the services of Chris Morris, Rory Kleinveldt and Lonwabo Tsosobe will be called upon. Though no less than potent in suitable conditions, these bowlers will not evoke any fear in the mind of the Pakistan batsmen. Add to that South Africa’s spin woes and we have a considerably weak bowling attack.

2. Key players: Misbah Ul Haq and Nasir Jamshed

Given the vulnerability of the Pakistan batting line-up, it was all the more important that South Africa had a bowling line-up to exploit that. The slight but significant advantage that Pakistan gained in the last game was that its two key batsman got runs. Misbah-ul-Haq is reliable and has the ability to grind an innings while the team is in ruins; Nasir Jamshed has a similar but more explosive ability. His gritty 50 against the West Indies does not augur well for the Proteas. If these two batsmen come up with the runs, a total of 200 might as well be a winning one for Pakistan.

3. Pakistan’s pace battery

Even though they were defending a meagre total, the trio of Wahab Riaz, Mohammed Irfan and Junaid Khan made it seem like a mountain to climb. Irfan especially used his height and pace to good effect bamboozling the West Indian batsmen. The dismissal of J. Charles was a case in point as to how quickly the ball climbs on a batsman once delivered from such height and at such pace. Although the trio are all left-hand bowlers, they boast of a great deal of diversity with swing, pace, bounce. South African top order did not contribute a lot in the game against India but they will have to make sure that they survive the first 10-12 overs without losing wickets.

4. Saeed Ajmal and Md. Hafeez

Ajmal is arguably the best bowler in the world. His ability to spin the ball in not-particularly supportive conditions along with a deadly wrong-one makes him a wicket taking option. His ten overs will be used not to shackle but to attack by Misbah-ul-Haq. Mohammed Hafeez on the other hand, though, not equally potent is much more than a utility bowler as opposed to Suresh Raina, who successfully shackled the Proteas’ middle order in the first match. It seems like there are no loopholes in this bowling attack given South Africa’s vulnerability against spin.

5. The desire

It seems like South Africa’s choker tag is likely to be re-enforced at this year’s Champion’s Trophy. The last game against India saw them reach a rather comfortable position with Petersen and AB De Villiers cruising along to the target when a couple of run-outs ran terror through their line-up. There is a particular vulnerability about them at the big stage. On the other hand, Pakistan have pushed themselves at critical moments and the desire to meet India in a consequential game will an added incentive. They want to prove to the world that their skills cannot be ignored in spite of the sordid conditions that cloud Pakistan cricket.