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Brazil face Mexico in the third match of Group A in which the winner of the match has a really high probability to qualify for the knockout phase. Brazil are expected to win this match but Mexico won’t make it easy for them. While Brazil could have been considered fortunate to win 3-1, Mexico had two goals disallowed in their 1-0 win which probably should have stood. Mexico’s three man defence easily dealt with the little attacking threat of Cameroon and now face their first real test against Brazil.
While Mexico will be pinned back by Neymar and Marcelo on the left and will have difficulty in matching Brazil through the middle, they can fancy their chances on Brazil’s right flank where Dani Alves’s forward runs leave Brazil open at the back.
Using the brilliant passing of Rakitic and Modric, Croatia used this tactic well. They drew the Brazilian fullbacks up before countering via the space left behind. Croatia created the two early chances of the game, both of which orginated from the left flank. Here, Mexico have a great chance of doing the same and if Miguel Herrera gets his tactics right here, Mexico can well have an upset similar to their 2-0 win against France in World Cup 2010 and 2-1 win over Brazil in the 2012 Olympics final. We examine the role each player will have on this battle.
Dani Alves
Dani Alves is one of the greatest, if not the greatest, attacking fullbacks in modern football right now. He uses his pace to great effect and is a brilliant crosser of the ball. This helps Barcelona keep width in their play and Alves is an important cog in the Barcelona lineup.
However, Barcelona and their tika-taka philosophy revolves around keeping the ball and pressing whenever you don’t have it. This means that the opposition rarely see the ball and are too deep whenever they actually get it, as they have been pushed back a lot. This keeps the counter attack threat at a minimum. However, Brazil aren’t anything of the sort and they lose the ball a lot. Also, Oscar and Willian aside, there aren’t really many attacking players who press the ball effectively for them. This in turns leave spaces behind Dani Alves which can be exploited.
Brazil’s right winger
Hulk’s injury may well be a blessing in disguise for Brazil as it opens up a spot for Willian. Willian is a workhorse, full of constant running and he presses the fullback constantly. In addition to that, he possesses trickery and pace which allow him to beat the fullbacks easily. Willian is ideal for this role as he can track Layun, cover for Dani Alves and combine with him as well.
Hulk prefers to cut in and shoot, and doesn’t offer as much running and defensive workrate as Willian does. While that does mean Brazil can attack Mexico more with the aim of outscoring them, it can prove fatal and Mexico can get goals down that flank.
There is the possibility of Ramires starting on the right wing. Ramires would defensively work brilliantly and will protect Dani Alves a lot, but his attacking contribution is not up to the mark and Brazil will struggle to create attacks down the right hand side. However, he helps shore up the defensive side of things better than Willian and Hulk - at the cost of attacking prowess.
Miguel Layun
Layun has come a long way from the #TodoesculpadeLayun hashtag, which means that “everything is Layun’s fault”. Miguel Herrera’s appointment has seen the two-footed speedster rise to being one of the most prominent Mexican players on the team. He has pace to burn and can both cut in to score goals as well as cross down the flank. He is defensively suspectible but Moreno covers him there. If Dani Alves does get forward, you can expect Layun to get forward and hurt Brazil on the counter.
Andres Guardado and Paulinho
The 27 year old has already claimed over 100 caps in his career. A winger by trade, he’s deployed as a central midfielder by Mexico. Still, Guardado has shown a tendency to shift out to the leftflank. He’s going to help track Dani Alves as well as drift across to that side to overload. However, that leaves the centre exposed to Paulinho’s marauding run (though Herrera can help there). Paulinho can also drift across to help that side too, though it looks unlikely.
Giovanni dos Santos
A frustratingly inconsistent player, Dos Santos shows his best form in Mexico colours. He should have gotten two goals against Cameroon and has been brilliant in the #10 role. Luiz Gustavo will have his hands full tracking him. While on paper, this sounds like a central battle which is independent of the wing battle, dos Santos has shown lateral movement in a bid to find space.
This will result in him finding time on the right flank and overload Alves. It would be interesting to see if Gustavo is willing to leave his defensive midfield position (where Herrera can run into) to track Giovanni or leave him alone.
Conclusion: If Mexico are able to balance overloading the flank while not giving Brazil freedom in the middle then they can wreak havoc on this flank and get an upset. Brazil would need support from central midfielders while Willian should help Dani Alves. Dani Alves has handled players like Cristiano Ronaldo well and if Scolari limits his attacking freedom, instead focusing attacks on the left or the middle of the park, it could go a long way to all but securing Brazil’s spot in the Round of 16.
Brazil can also attack and expose Layun’s poor defenisve ability. Brazil have the ability to stop Mexico completely, while Mexico have the ability to run riot on the flank. This will be decided on ability, defensive skill and how many players each side is willing to commit towards that side of the pitch.
