Road to Rio: An analysis of Germany's chances at WC 2014

With the UEFA Champions league semi-finals done and dusted, we saw something absolutely wonderful happening those nights. Some call it the end of an era, some call it the shift of power, an optimist would call it a cycle with its highs and lows. But there was something special that happened, something that was waiting to happen for a long time.

There was an eerie feeling to the wind blowing through the Allianz arena, something felt strange, like something was about to happen, something unprecedented. Barcelona, who had made it to their 6th consecutive UCL semi-finals were facing Bayern Munich, a team on a mission, a team looking to assert dominance, a team which dominated the Bundesliga like it was a play ground. Barcelona were perhaps at their lowest possible form in 4 years, and Bayern, at their best in the last 3. The stage was set for one of the greatest clashes so far in the calender year.

With the stage set and the big guns waiting to walk out and show off their calibre, the whole world anticipated something titanic, and so they were granted what they wished for, albeit something highly unlikely had transpired. Barcelona were dominated in the first leg with a massive 4-0 loss away, without charismatic captain Carles Puyol and Javier Mascherano missing due to injury, the already frail defence looked almost non-existent. The mid-field looked ever so weak with both Andres Iniesta and Xavi Hernandez struggling to find their form and build up play in the fear of loosing the ball to the opposition. The little Argentinian magician too looked lack-lustre and all these missing elements spelt doom for the (once) mighty Catalans. A similar scenario in the 2nd leg led to the biggest drubbing in the history of UCL semifinals ever, and considering their form in the year so far, it didn’t seem so hard to take in that the Blaugrana had been defeated, decimated even.

In the Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid game, we saw 2 teams at full team strength ready to compete at the highest level. For Real it meant another title, and for Dortmund, an elusive 2nd. Again, something completely different from what had been predicted happened. Real were dominated. Taking nothing away from Robert Lewandowski, Real played some uninspired football, and deserved to lose. Though they actually put up a fight against Dortmund, and were better over the 2 legs than Barcelona, Real Madrid did end up on the losing side inspite of possessing one of the most talented sides in Europe.

If an in-depth analysis be done of the 4 matches played thus far, it’s easily noticeable that the famed ‘tiki-taka’ had been dominated, and the super effective pressing style of football leaves gaping holes at the back, and if not defended properly, it could lead to some major defeats as seen from the matches. For a very long time now, Spain have been dominating the world of football, and even their league started producing some of the best football in Europe. Without doubt, the La Liga had more flair and class than any other competition in Europe. And when the domestic competition is so brutally challenging, it’s only expected that players that come out of this system are effective at the national level, and along with that comes the moulding of players from youth to one day representing the country, and all this being done in a challenging environment only helps national teams in choosing a squad of 15-20 from a majorly talented pool of around 50 players, and thus creates a benchmark for other teams and leagues to follow.

Sadly, over the course of the campaign, we witnessed something absolutely devastating. The La Liga was starting to seem very boring, and very volatile. The ‘wizards’ of the league were more or less caught up in problems of their own, and thus creating space for errors.

Don’t get me wrong, space for improvement is absolutely vital if you want to keep pace with the ever changing game. But the stars didn’t seem like they were adapting to this tough situation. They were lingering on old ideas and sticking to the plan more often than not ; no matter how sound the logic seems, sticking to your plans when it is not working is not expected of teams like Barcelona and Real Madrid. After that decimation comes an important question – no matter how naive, it’s the fact that such a huge loss incurred by one of the best teams in Europe only starts to make it seem like a major downfall is going to happen, like the end of an era.

Since this has happened before the 2014 WC in Brazil, it’s only logical to contemplate whether Spain remain champions after such disastrous outings. And considering the majority of the squads for both Spain and Germany come from the 4 teams that played the semifinals, you can’t help but feel like this is what to be expected from the WC next year. So let’s analyze Germany’s chances at Brazil in 2014.

The Germans, for quite some time now, have been the ‘chokers’ of world football. And in an era of Spanish dominated tiki-taka football, their concept of ‘Total Football’ seems less stylish and somewhat brutal. Football needed some fresh air and the Germans have provided it without much hassle. When the German National Team played the Euro 2008 finals against the Spanish with Michael Ballack as their skipper, they looked like a side determined to win the trophy. However, things didn’t work out the way they were supposed to. Ever since then, Spain have taken over the world, literally by virtue of winning all major football championships by a landslide.

Zinedine Zidane once said - “The day Spain begin winning, they won’t stop”. These words were beginning to seem true every time Spain took to field, every time they faced an opponent, or every time they scored a goal. The current crop of Spanish players are no doubt the ‘golden generation’ of Spanish football, and it’s no surprise to see them coming from arguably the two best teams in Europe. Spain were truly on the verge of conquering the world with their football and had rightfully claimed their place on the top of the pedestal for the past 5 years. But everything started to feel different, everything didn’t seem as rosy as it had done for the past 5 years. Bayern Munich are now hailed as the new superpowers of Europe, and the world. Their class was evident throughout the year, and the strength in depth of squad is paying off.

Possessing some of the world’s best players may be easy if you buy a majority of them, but it’s hard to build a team of youngsters who might one day become the best. Such is the story of both Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. Both these German superpowers have squads that are made up of German players who have been brought up in their own system of youth culturing. No longer are academies of Spain hailed to be the best, even La Masia may not have a large collection of youth players worth watching for in the future as compared to their German counterparts at Munich and Dortmund.

Germany’s romance with youth players started when they took to the field in the Euro 2008. Even then, they had players who could overturn any opposition on their day. But at that time, they were facing a highly rejuvenated Spanish team that was playing their first Euro 2008 finals in 44 years. They were totally outplayed by the Spanish system of football and were stunned with the continuous passing around and creating chances that their relatively older squad were struggling to keep up, and that eventually led to their defeat. That’s when they decided that bringing up players from the youth system would be the best possible option to stem the loss. And thus started a whirlwind journey where the Germans were starting to look more and more like the team to beat in all competitions.

The current German Squad is made up entirely of players who are on the right side of their 30′s, spare a few talented players. The German Youth system is magnificent, their talented scouts must be credited for finding sublime talent in the streets of Germany, and now that the long planned youth system is finally reaping rewards, we are getting to see some fantastic football from the extremely talented and efficient Germans.

Going into the biggest stage of world football on the back of some spirited performances from everyone in the team is exactly what Germany required. Once the finals at Wembley and the prospect of the famous old cup finally going to Germany after a long wait were confirmed, it’s hard to imagine Germany not lifting the World Cup when the time comes in Rio.

Joachim Loew is by far the shrewdest manager in world football at the moment. His fantastic man-management skills have brought Germany to where they are now. Though a lot of credit should go the the team management for establishing such a dominant outfit, the execution of the plans set, when done with such unparalleled efficiency and flair, it becomes a mere formality to wait for the desired outcome. That is the case of the German National Squad at this point of time. Loew has slowly but surely set the benchmark for the rest of the world to follow. Along with commendable performances from both Jupp Heynckes and Jurgen Klopp in the upbringing of the players, Loew has built a team that is not only young and talented, but also mature and well established.

An analysis of the current squad in Germany goes onto to show that the average age of the players is a mere 25.0, a staggering number for a squad so proficient. And everyone in the squad combines to perform to their highest potential and that goes to show that Germany have had some brilliant performances over the last few years.

The defence is by and large the most important sector of the football pitch, even more than the midfield and the attacking zone, and Germany do have a strong back 4. In a system where midfield and attack have been given more preference, Germany have stocked up on some of the most promising set of players to form the back bone of the team, and to make them less vulnerable to conceding, something that has been evident from the UCL finals.

In Philipp Lahm, they have a captain who is not only brilliant in defence, but also in attack. His contributions on the right flank have proved match defining at times and his role of bringing the players together and keeping them in high spirits doesn’t make his job any easier, but his abilities have overshadowed his burden and he has come out on top to become not only Germany’s best right back, but also the world’s. Marcel Schmelzer is on his way to becoming a strong contender for playing at left back; that should solve a lot of problems.

The centre of defence is where most of the blows are dealt. And when most teams prefer to go straight down the centre and shoot at goal, Germany have the most agile and yet physically strong defence in almost all the teams. Mats Hummels is growing into the one of the best defenders on the planet with his ball playing capabilities, his solid defence work and constant aerial threat. To partner him there are quite a few defenders, but one who stood out was Benedict Howedes. His reading of the game was brilliant and his adaptability was seen. It’s only time till Germany solve their defensive issues, and then we can see them conceding less goals.

Midfield and attack have been brilliant throughout the years when they started developing their youth system, and it’s evident that they possess some similarities to Spain in their constant use of ‘False-9′ type of players. But unlike Spain, they have the option of shifting to an out-and-out striker when the need arises. That’s the calibre of the German squad that sets them apart from their opponents. Players like Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedira are brilliant when it comes to playing as holding midfielders to win back balls from opponents when an attack is underway and provide stellar passes to their team-mates who are a constant threat in front of goal. Mesut Ozil, Thomas Muller, Toni Kroos and Mario Gotze are all brilliant when it comes to creating passes with superb vision. And when need be, they can step up and score those vital goals as well. In the strikers department, they have Mario Gomez, the evergreen Miroslav Klose, Podolski and the upcoming Marco Reus – all of whom are capable of demolishing defences when need be.

Goalkeeping was never in question. While possessing arguably the best ‘keeper in world football in the form of Manuel Neuer, their youth system has led to the discovery of talents like Marc Andre-Ter Stegen and Ron Robert-Ziegler who can be Germany’s best goalkeepers one day.

Even after possessing one of the best teams in world football and dominating the biggest club competition in the world by staging the biggest upsets in recent history, Germany have had their problems when it comes to performing on the day. The ‘chokers’ tag may not leave them soon, but should they regain their club form when it matters, and if and when they regain their self belief and confidence to perform, we may well be looking at a German dominated decade of football.

Though the road ahead seems rough and the steep hills left to climb are getting nearer, you can count on the Germans to bring their best to the table and bring about the biggest coup in history, come Rio 2014. The Italians, Portuguese and English may be able opponents, but their era of dominance can only begin if they dethrone the mighty Spanish.

“Leave the beaten track occasionally and dive into the woods. You will be certain to find something you have never seen before” - Alexander Graham Bell

Those words only fortify the claim that the German domination has only begun, and come 2014, we may well see a major shift in power. Will the Germans conquer all, or will they leave us wanting for more? Only time will tell.