Where will Arsenal finish in the 2014/15 season?

Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger

With the distraction of the World Cup finally over, this Gunner die-hard fan has gotten back to chewing his fingernails as he watches the clock on the transfer market swiftly running down. I have to admit, I was pleasantly stunned that Arsenal made any moves at all before the dying days of August, as is typically their wont. Even better, all the acquisitions have been of high quality.

If you put together all the additions and subtractions, at least the ones on the current first team roster, there would be no dispute that the quality has gone up. Of course, arguments would break out as soon as one asks the question, “By how much?”. But I digress.

I did get to watch two of Arsenal’s pre-season games, both of which they lost and in both of which their form could best be described as blasé, or more crudely as “blaaaeh”. In the first one, against the New York Red Bulls, both the starting XI and the flow of the game itself highlighted Arsenal’s strengths and weaknesses. Disappointingly, they were the same ones carried over from several years – strong possession in midfield, somewhat promising on the front foot but lacking a good finish, vulnerable as ever on the defensive side of the equation.

The US has never been a big target for the Gunners, but they did dutifully trot out Zelalem, the youngster we hope Klinsmann can shanghai into the US team. He didn’t show much in that game, but had a better outing against Monaco. So far, the Gunners have the dubious distinction of being the only EPL team to have dropped a game to US opposition.

Analysing Arsenal’s problems and new signings

The problems don’t just seem to be about personnel; some of them appear to be strategic. I have never coached a game, but watching the Gunners lining up in a “zone” defense on set pieces, it really looks like anyone or his grandmother would be a good bet to score. If you leave an empty corridor at about the 6 yard box, with defenders on the goal-ward side against attackers at an equal distance opposite, how difficult is it going to be? You do the math.

Will attackers who are typically quicker get to the ball first or the slower defenders? Given an unimpeded running start, will the attacker have a better chance of getting the header on target than when there is a defender draped all over him like a cheap suit? Falcao showed us the answer, but, in all honesty, it could have been Mary Poppins and her umbrella rising to nod home.

New signings Calum Chambers (L) and Mathieu Debuchy (C) train with Olivier Giroud (R)

While it is too early to tell which grain will grow and which will not, we can check what the form sheets tell us. Let us start with the Invisible Man, David Ospina, currently nursing a thigh injury. He should be a few notches up from ‘Flappy-Handski’ and will challenge Wojciech Szczesny for the starting spot.

Calum Chambers had an excellent showing in central defence, which gives Wenger at least one option when Mertesacker’s absence of foot speed may become the overwhelming handicap. He is definitely way better than Carl Jenkinson in his customary right back slot, particularly on defence.

Mathieu Debuchy is almost a like-for-like replacement for Bacary Sagna, though it should be noted that Debuchy is the one who starts for France.

And finally, there is Alexis Sanchez. He comes from a club who play a similar style, albeit infinitely better. The midfield and Olivier Giroud should set him up with a similar number of opportunities, so one can hope for similar returns. The bonus, as seen in the Monaco game, was that Sanchez did some very effective defensive poaching far up the field, whenever the Gunners turned the ball over.

One huge advantage this time is that Chambers and Debuchy are already used to the English game and the lack of a winter break – frequently the undoing of many a continental star in his first season in England.

The Gunners’ prospects in 2014/15

Here, one would need to look at what their competitors have done. Chelsea and Man City have kept adding to their stockpile of talent, with City nonchalantly spitting in the face of Financial Fair Play – what a joke that has turned out to be. Liverpool lost Luis Suarez, which has led to experts automatically downgrading their prospects. However, their results were actually better without Suarez than with him. Moreover, they have shored up their squad with the acquisition of midfielder Emre Can and defender Dejan Lovren. Most of all, Raheem Sterling looks ready to light up the stage, already displaying mid-season form.

The arsenal squad train at the Emirates

Spurs, with a new gaffer, a new philosophy and another revamping of their roster, may need a season to get any sort of act together. They have acquired more midfielders but no striker. Of course, the most incredible acquisition was Michel Vorm as a backup to Hugo Lloris – it’s incredible that Vorm would want that transfer.

Last, but not least, there is the phoenix-like resurrection of Manchester United. The roster hasn’t really changed much, but van Gaal has transformed the team into instant contenders. Liverpool appeared to expose some vulnerabilities in his 3-5-2, but if you watched the Guinness championship game, it was really a matter of personnel. If van Gaal has the sense to start with Blackett instead of Johnny Evans, Man United are ready.

Speaking of Blackett, the other impressive youngster I have seen on the US tour besides him is Jordon Ibe. I wonder if Rodgers will have the courage to put him ahead of Ricky Lambert on the depth chart, which he clearly is.

Have Arsenal done enough in the transfer window?

There are still about three weeks left in the transfer window. However, after the pleasant surprise of early and significant acquisitions like Sanchez and Debuchy, that sinking feeling returned when Wenger reverted to form, stating that he was happy with the roster and would add one or two players if they could find good value additions. It would require a complete suspension of disbelief to ignore the gaping hole that exists in the Gunners central defence-midfield muscle and a strong alternative to Per Mertesacker.

Campbell Sanogo
Joel Campbell and Yaya Sanogo provide some depth in the striker department

I watched in dismay as promising prospects ended up elsewhere – Garay, de Vrij, Lovren. Wenger does have a bit of luxury with speed up front, having to choose between Sanchez, Joel Campbell, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Serge Gnabry and, if he ever makes it off the trainers bench, Theo Walcott. Yaya Sanogo is showing some signs of life and could offer Giroud some much needed relief.

Which Mesut Ozil will show up and in what role? With the options available up front, I suspect it will be in midfield. Given how skittish he has become about taking a shot, that may be just what the doctor ordered.

If the transfer market closed as I write this, I think the realistic expectation for the Gunners would be fifth spot (Man United replacing us in the top 4 mix), another 2nd round or maybe quarterfinal appearance in the Champions League and potentially a minor trinket like the Community Shield or the League Cup. With a holding midfielder and a central defender, “We coulda bin a contendah”.

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