As Manchester United prepare to face Southampton tonight in a record-equalling 49th trip to Wembley, we must look at their season as a whole and realise that an EFL Cup victory will not affect Jose Mourinho’s future at the club.
That is to say, there is only one statistic that can make or break a United manager’s career in the modern game: a top-four finish.
Looking at the statistics, it is evident that Manchester United have performed better than in any of their previous three seasons under managers that replaced Sir Alex Ferguson at the helm.
David Moyes had lost 8 matches in the Premier League at this stage in 2013/14 while Louis van Gaal was struggling to find consistency in a season where United managed to beat Liverpool one week and lose the following week to the likes of Southampton.
Even though Manchester United are worse off in the Premier League table than at this point last year (United were 5th), they have accumulated more points this season at this stage than any of the previous post-Ferguson seasons.
Another feather in Jose’s cap is that United are finally a free-scoring team: they have scored at least one goal in 25 of their last 26 games in all competitions, and scored two or more goals in 16 of those games.
If one believes that ‘attack, attack, attack’ is not the motto for Manchester United, then perhaps this statistic will raise a few eyebrows: United have won every game this season where they have scored two or more goals. This shows the meticulous defensive organisation that the team has undertaken to close out matches in a professional manner.
While many people would be impressed by these facts, they are not likely to sway the board in favour of Mourinho if he fails to bring “Zadok the Priest” (Champions League anthem) back to the grounds of Old Trafford next season. An EFL Cup win would guarantee European football, but as the manager himself has said, “The Europa League is not a competition we want to play.”
Manchester United are currently alive in four competitions, and while Mourinho himself admits that the Premier League is probably Chelsea’s to lose, the other competitions are very much up for grabs. The EFL Cup tonight could be the first of an ‘alternate treble’ season, and the FA Cup quarter-final at Stamford Bridge allows Mourinho to avenge the biggest loss of his Premier League career while showing exactly how much his United side have improved since that infamous defeat.
To put it into perspective, United have only lost two games since that mauling at Stamford Bridge and have won 19 games and drawn seven in return. A seven-game unbeaten run and a currently-active five-game winning streak also point to the evolution of this United side, who have overcome a rocky start to the season and transitioned into an intimidating force to be reckoned with.
Long gone are the days when Manchester United would struggle to score in the first half of their games, and yet there is so much negativity surrounding this team because of the extravagant summer spending that brought the world’s most expensive player to Old Trafford. Money can alleviate a lot of problems in a footballing team, but it cannot win you the trophy. Well, unless you’re Ferguson and you’re poaching Robin van Persie.
If Manchester United win tonight, they will become the joint-second-most successful side in this competition with five trophies, along with Chelsea and Aston Villa, and behind Liverpool with eight cup wins. It will be an important trophy addition to United’s cabinet, which has relatively dried up since Ferguson retired after securing United’s 20th Premier League crown.
However, unlike Louis van Gaal’s situation, wherein he was sacked two days after winning a record-equalling 12th FA Cup win for Manchester United, Jose Mourinho’s tenure at Old Trafford will be secure regardless of tonight’s result.
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The key factor in determining a manager’s future is the morale at the club: even though United missed out on a top-four finish last season on mere goal difference, there was no visible direction in which the team were headed towards.
Similarly, even though Leicester managed the unthinkable last year to win the Premier League for the first time in their 133-year history, their current instability and lack of drive prompted a change of manager.
Jose Mourinho has managed to instill that direction, drive and confidence within his players and it shows in their resilience and performances. United are able to come back from a goal down to win, defend resolutely and attack with verve. Perhaps the only area they need to focus on is finishing, as many of their dominant performances are not quite reflected in the scoreline.
Thus, it seems very likely that the EFL Cup final tonight will have no bearing whatsoever on Mourinho’s future at Manchester United, but he will want his team to reward their hard work this season with silverware.
