Why Liverpool are unlikely to miss Luis Suarez's goals

Luis Suarez after scoring in the 5-0 win against Spurs, the biggest away win of the season

Even when he’s not scoring goals, Luis Suarez is an incredibly handy player. He runs tirelessly. He’s twinkle-toed, and excellent with both feet. He has a useful knack of winning fouls in the right areas. He thinks quickly and moves fast. His Liverpool career was injury-free (barring a knee operation in May, after the season ended).

Of course, being injury-free counts for little when you miss 10-odd games every season for the most bizarre reasons possible. In a pristine world, Luis Suarez would still be a Liverpool player, drawing comparisons with Messi and Ronaldo, rather than Hannibal Lecter. But his departure from Liverpool probably benefits everyone.

Suarez often spoke of his dream to play in La Liga, and Barcelona seemed a natural fit. He has family ties with the city, where his wife studied in college and her family now lives. And Liverpool collect 75 million pounds to lose a player who is banned from all stadia till October (Barca can’t even present him publicly till then). Without a pre-season, he might not hit form till December. By then, Liverpool would have paid him 4 million with few returns.

Still, there is no denying that Liverpool will feel Suarez’s absence. “He makes everyone around him a better player,” observed Steven Gerrard. The Uruguayan netted a staggering 31 goals and assisted a further 12 in the EPL last season. But, bizzarely, the one thing Liverpool might not miss him for, the hardest thing in football, is goal-scoring.

Great figures, but..

On peak form, Suarez is the greatest flat-track bully in modern football. Of his 31 EPL goals last season, 16 came against the bottom five teams, of which 12 were scored against the three relegated sides. His goals usually established or extended a lead; only once did Suarez score when LFC were trailing, away at Cardiff. Even if you count potential exceptions, like the penalty at Newcastle that led to Gerrard’s equalizer, the Uruguayan was clearly far more productive when the going was good.

When sides are level or trailing, opposition defenders are more likely to push forward and join attack, leaving gaps at the back for strikers to exploit. It also ties in with the view that Liverpool played off the counter-attack a lot. But it poses an obvious question: were Suarez’s goals only good for inflating the margins? Philippe Coutinho, criticized for bluntness in front of goal, rescued Liverpool more often than Suarez did.

A diver? Certainly .. but Barcelona won’t complain about the free-kicks.

Relegation battlers are usually scrappy and hard to break down, but racking up goals against the weakest sides in the league isn’t a great indication of a player’s potency. Surely a Premier League striker can expect to score a few against the basement sides? Against top 4 opposition, playing rather better defenders, Suarez’s tally was zero in 6 matches.

Of course, there are other facets to his game – his creativity and defensive work rate were arguably the highest of any EPL forward. Still, such a lopsided return is surprising for a footballer of his pedigree. Gary Cahill and Martin Demichelis are frankly not the first names you’d suggest to mark a European Golden Boot winner; yet the ease with which they shut Suarez down at Stamford Bridge and Anfield respectively was surprising.

Beyond the numbers

The point isn’t that Suarez is a choker; rather, his output – while spectacular and frequently useful – wasn’t as crucial for Liverpool’s title charge as it appears. Let’s measure him against the only talent the EPL has exported for a higher sum, Gareth Bale. In the 2012-13 season, Bale’s goals delivered an incredible 21 points for Tottenham [in the form of either equalizers or winners]. Moreover, he hit form at the right time, scoring most of his goals in the run-in from January. His pace and guile fashioned Spurs’ first win over Man United at Old Trafford since 1989, and later the 3-1 against Man City; and he single-handedly rescued a derby against West Ham. To speak of ‘one-man teams’ is to disrespect the basics of football, but by mid-April Tottenham epitomized the term.

In comparison, Suarez scored 11 goals during Liverpool’s best stretch of the 2013-14 season – the 22-game spell between January and May, which saw 17 wins, 3 draws and 62 goals, which means Liverpool’s best striker scored just about 1/6th of their goals during the run-in. And he didn’t score at all in the domestic Cups.

Daniel Sturridge and Gareth Bale

It was Daniel Sturridge who marshalled Liverpool’s attack during this period, scoring in 8 games on the trot to set a season record. Raheem Sterling displayed incredible versatility, both positionally and technically, and Steven Gerrard chipped in with set-piece goals at key moments. All had good seasons, and there is a strong belief that the first two will only get better with time. Suarez’s contribution to their growth cannot be understated – especially Sterling - but by the run-in, there was an increasing suspicion that he had plateaued in December. He continued to menace and distract defenders, creating space for others to run into, but the ruthless finishing was gone.

Put simply, several players stepped up for Liverpool last season at different times, and when Suarez got his chance - with Sturridge and Gerrard absent throughout December - he seized it with both hands. The image atop this article shows him celebrating the 4th goal in the 5-0 defeat of Spurs – a classic team goal that summarized the effort behind his tally.

It might seem a rather obvious conclusion: he had the supply all to himself, so of course he would score more. But Liverpool have since bared other fangs, so the need for Suarez had shrunk significantly by the time he ‘fell into’ Giorgio Chiellini’s shoulder. The Reds scored 58 EPL goals without Suarez’s involvement last season. That’s still more than 14 other teams managed.

Conclusion

Of course, the fact remains that Liverpool have lost the most capable attacker in the EPL. With the league’s top two scorers leading the line, the Reds were often slack in defence, confident they could outscore their opponents every time. A more cautious approach actually makes sense, given how they lost the title. Last season started with three 1-0 wins and a draw. Symmetrically, the previous season ended 3W 1D, with Suarez absent from all 8 games. The highlight of this sequence was a fine 6-0 win away at St James’ Park, where 4 different players scored. The architect of that win,, Coutinho, is the creative heir to Suarez. The Brazilian earned his bones in the 4-0 Merseyside derby at Anfield, emerging as the standout player and giving Gareth Barry a terrible outing. He already has a good understanding with Sturridge, who thrives on Coutinho’s through-balls. Further ahead, any two of Lazar Markovic, Sterling and Adam Lallana will partner Sturridge.

As Rodgers recently noted, Suarez had improved Liverpool but Liverpool also improved Suarez. Can the new men match his numbers? That one is for the future, but his departure might well bring the best out of his old teammates.

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