The wait is finally over for potential Lions

After all the speculation, the wait is almost over, with Warren Gatland due to name his selections for the 2013 British and Irish Lions touring party on Tuesday morning. After all the deliberation, opinion and predictions we will finally find out who, in Gatland’s mind at least, are the men best equipped to travel down-under to face and defeat the might of the Australians on home soil.

Conjecture of the squad’s make-up for 2013 began almost from the moment the 2009 version stepped from the field in Johannesburg and bringing the debate to an end will be more than welcomed by not only the players involved, but Warren Gatland too, who has had to field and fend away endless questions and idle supposition since he was announced as coach in September 2012.

A successful Lions squad is about more than simply picking the players of the highest technical merit. It is a balancing act, requiring a touring party containing not only the sufficient skill and strength required to produce a first Lions series victory since 1997, but also sufficient character to deal with all the tour might entail. Injuries acting to disrupt all planning are the norm and, with four weeks of the domestic season still remaining, some of the 37 due to be named tomorrow will not even make the plane to Australia.

In a squad of 37 of course, not all will find themselves involved with the test squad, deputizing in the midweek games and providing support in the event of injury and loss of form. This is why the selection of those players outside of the perceived starting test squad is almost more important than of those wearing one to fifteen when the first test kicks off on 22nd June in Brisbane. Not only do you need players with sufficient ability to step into a potentially decisive test match at a moments notice, but also those with the necessary lack of ego to accept and revel in a midweek role, driving the squad onward to overall tour victory. In 2009, the general antics of the Welsh back-rower Andy Powell and the dead-pan delivery of the ‘daily joke’ from Euan Murray endeared them to the rest of the touring party. The Lions is an intense and unrelenting tour and maintaining morale is an important factor, which is why characters in the mold of Powell are essential.

All these factors, along with the fast, hard grounds of the southern hemisphere will need to be considered by Gatland and his coaching team.

The front and back rows of the scrum are an area of strength, meaning the likely omission of England captain Chris Robshaw when the squad is announced. Adam Jones is rightly a nailed on starter for the first test in the front row and bookies have stopped taking bets on his Welsh colleague Sam Warburton taking the role of captain, narrowing down alternative options in an overly competitive back row. Aside from these two players, the starting fifteen come the first test is anyone’s guess, but we look at some of the possible runners and riders.

Front Row

England’s Dan Cole will almost certainly go, as will Wales captain in the 6 Nations win over England, Gethin Jenkins and Ireland loose head Cian Healey. Mako Vunipolo’s potential in the loose would give any test side impact from the bench and Scotland’s Euan Murray offers test experience and scrummaging solidity at tight head.

Hooker

Despite the uncharacteristic problems he suffered on his throwing during the 6 Nations, Ireland’s Rory Best should go as first choice hooker with Wales’ Richie Hibbard close behind. Ken Owens, Ross Ford and Dylan Hartley would offer excellent back-up, but Tom Young’s performances coming off the bench may offer valuable late-game go-forward.

Lock

If Paul O’Connell’s recent return from injury had come a little sooner, he would have been ideally suited to be named Lions captain, that aside his experience, ability and leadership qualities will prove invaluable. Alun Wynn Jones’ all-round ability and recent form sees him as one of the favourites for a test starting berth and with the Lions no doubt looking to dominate the Australian forwards, Nathan Hinds may be a surprise choice at lock. Wales’ Ian Evans’ line-out abilities and young England lock Joe Launchbury’s athleticism around the field make them excellent Lions options.

Back Row

Warren Gatland is spoilt for choice in the back row. Sam Warburton is all but confirmed as captain and he’ll be joined by fellow Wales open side Justin Tipuric and number eight, Toby Faletau. Tom Crofts’ previous Lions performances, combined with his express speed on the harder grounds should be enough for him to make the squad. Sean O’Brien’s ability to get over the gain-line and also to cover all three back row positions should see him on the plane alongside Dan Lydiate, who has just recovered from a broken ankle. Despite his recent form, the second number 8 place will probably go to Ireland captain Jamie Heaslip who excelled on the 2009 Lions tour. Though I would look to the extra pace and dynamism off the back of the scrum that England’s Ben Morgan offers.

Scrum Half

After his performance against England in the 6 Nations, Mike Phillips should start the first test, but England’s Ben Youngs has starred against the Wallabies in the past and will go as well. Danny Care’s recent club form and extra pace should see him selected ahead of Scotland’s Greg Laidlaw.

Fly Half

Despite recent injury, Jonathan Sexton will start the first test at number 10 and Owen’s Farrell’s performances under pressure over the past year should see him join Sexton on the plane.

Centre

The centre partnership is probably the biggest area of concern for Warren Gatland. Brain O’Driscoll will tour, but no longer has the pace to get round the outside of an opponent. Jamie Roberts’ tackle-breaking ability will see him selected despite an average year and Manu Tuilagi will join him having already been talk-up as a potential wing by the coach. Jonathan Davies’s all-round excellence should see him in Australia as well, which leaves one place open for a 10/12. Gatland’s lack of belief of James Hook in the past leaves the door open for England’s Billy Twelvetrees.

Wing

The two Welsh flyers George North and Alex Cuthbert seem nailed on for a place in the touring party and Ireland’s Simon Zebo showed enough moments of line-breaking brilliance to be selected as well. This leaves one space open for any number of options – Sean Maitland and Tim Visser of Scotland had excellent 6 Nations and Chris Ashton has recovered well in the Heineken Cup for his club. Tommy Bowe would probably go, but has yet to prove he has fully recovered from injury, which just leaves a couple of uncapped bolters, Jonny May of Gloucester and Chritian Wade of Wasps. From a purely romantic point of view, it would be great to see Wade’s balance and acceleration getting into full stride on the hardened southern hemisphere.

Full Back

In Leigh Halfpenny, the Lions have possibly the best fullback playing in world rugby at the moment and he can be more than ably backed up by Ireland’s Rob Kearney who was excellent for the Lions four years ago. Stuart Hogg’s broken field running and counter-attacking ability should also see him on the plane

Final Squad:

Backs

Leigh Halfpenny (W), Stuart Hogg (S), Rob Kearney (I), George North (W), Alex Cuthbert (W), Simon Zebo (I), Christian Wade (E), Brian O’Driscoll (I), Manu Tuilagi (E), Jamie Roberts (W), Jonathan Davies (W), Billy Twelvetrees (E), Jonathan Sexton (I), Owen Farrell (E), Mike Phillips (W), Ben Youngs (E), Danny Care (E)

Forwards

Adam Jones (W), Dan Cole (E), Euan Murray (S), Gethin Jenkins (W), Cian Healey (I), Mako Vunipolo (E), Rory Best (I), Richard Hibbard (W), Tom Youngs (E), Paul O’Connell (I), Alun Wynn Jones (W), Joe Launchbury (E), Ian Evans (W), Nathan Hinds (S), Tom Croft (E), Sean O’Brian (I), Dan Lydiate (W), Sam Warburton (W), Justin Tipuric (W), Toby Faletau (W), Ben Morgan (E)