Australian Open 2022: Quarter Final 1: Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov, 3 factors which will determine the fate of the match

Sixth seed Rafael Nadal of Spain faces 14th seed Denis Shapovalov of Canada in a quarter-final match at the Australian Open in Melbourne on 26th January 2022. Rafael Nadal, 35, is three victories away from a record 21st Grand Slam. 22-year-old Shapovalov, on the other hand, is looking for his first ever semi-final berth at the Australian Open.

Both Nadal and Shapovalov won their respective fourth-round matches in straight sets. Nadal dismantled Adrian Mannarino of France, whereas Shapovalov upset Alexander Zverev of Germany.

On that note, we take a look at three factors that might determine the fate of tomorrow’s match:

#1 The quality of serving matter as Nadal would like to continue his improved performance:

Nadal served very well against Mannarino

Nadal served extremely well in the match against Mannarino, especially in the second and third sets. The speed of his first serve breached the 190 MPH mark and he fired 16 aces. Mannarino often struggled to return Nadal’s first serve well enough, and the Spaniard won 88% of his first serve points.

Meanwhile, Shapovalov’s first serve percentage was 63% against Zverev, but he managed to win 77%. Moreover, he also won a respectable 46% of his second serve points. He might look to serve to Nadal’s backhand more often as the Spaniard can hit down-the-line forehand return winners, especially against the second serve.

However, if Nadal is again able to serve as well as he did against Mannarino, Shapovalov would have a tough time dealing with it.

#2 Shapovalov might not want to risk coming to the net frequently:

Shapovalov's ability at the net was on full display against Zverev, as the Canadian won 22 of the 27 points in the fore court. Zverev could not hit his passing shots well enough to trouble him.

However, he might do well to think twice before repeating this strategy against Nadal. Nadal, arguably possesses the best passing shots in the history of the game and has hit some nice running forehand passes this year too. Hence, he might very well fancy his chances of finishing the point with one of his clinical passing shots should Shapovalov decide to rush to the net.

Therefore, Shapovalov may be better off staying at the back of the court for the majority of tomorrow’s match.

#3 It is a battle of attrition from the baseline:

Shapovalov is capable of hitting well off both wings

Nadal has dropped only one set in the tournament so far and lost only 38 games in the process. As a result, he will be relatively fresh for tomorrow’s match. In contrast, Shapovalov has lost four sets so far and also played in a five-setter in the second round.

Moreover, tomorrow’s clash is a day match and would test the fitness level of the players in hot conditions.

Shapovalov is capable of hitting well off both wings and would definitely want to use his power to hit through Nadal.However, the Spaniard's defense is still as good as ever and he would also play slices and

drop shots to alter the pace of the rally. In a nutshell, it should be an intriguing battle tomorrow. The Spaniard will look to change the pace of the rallies using dropshots and slices to prevent Shapovalov from settling into a rhythm.