Explained: How Rafael Nadal can become World No. 1 this season

Rafael Nadal's hopes of winning the Calendar Grand Slam might have been dashed by his Wimbledon withdrawal, but the Spaniard has a lot to play for in the remainder of the 2022 season.

Nadal jumped to No. 3 in the ATP rankings after the conclusion of the Wimbledon Championships. And there's a very real possibility of him regaining the World No. 1 spot by the end of the season.

Among the current top 40 players in the ATP rankings, the Spaniard has the lowest percentage of points to defend. He missed almost the entire second half of the 2021 season, meaning that the former World No. 1 stands to gain a large number of points before the end of the ongoing season.

Nadal's last appearance in 2021 was at the Citi Open in early August, where he lost in the round of 16.

Out of his total of 6,165 points, Nadal has to defend just 545 points in the second half, amounting to just 9%. Let's take a look at how the Spaniard can become the World No. 1 before the end of 2022.

Rafael Nadal's potential schedule and points to be won for the rest of the season

Rafael Nadal at the Citi Open, his last tournament in 2021

The Spaniard had earlier expressed his intention to play the Rogers Cup in Montreal, a Masters event carrying a maximum of 1000 ranking points, as well as the US Open in New York, which carries a maximum of 2000 points. Nadal's absence from both events last season means he has the opportunity to earn a lot of points from the two events in 2022.

It will be interesting to see if he eventually decides to participate in the Cincinnati Masters and the Citi Open. After the US Open, the Japan Open and the Swiss Indoors tournament in Basel are among the biggest ATP 500 events remaining this season.

Additionally, the Shanghai Masters and Paris Masters are the final two Masters 1000 events to be played in 2022, after the American swing. The season will then end at the ATP finals, where another 1,500 points are up for grabs.

Nadal currently has 6,165 ranking points to his name, just behind No. 2 Alexander Zverev (who holds 6,850 points) and No. 1 Daniil Medvedev (7,775 points). Zverev won the Cincinnati Masters and reached the US Open semifinals in 2021, while Medvedev won the Canadian Open and the US Open and reached the semifinals in Cincinnati last season.

Points to defend for Rafael Nadal's biggest competitors, such as Djokovic, Medvedev and Zverev

Novak Djokovic (L) and Daniil Medvedev at the 2021 US Open

Current No. 1 Daniil Medvedev has the highest number of points (5,200) as well as the highest percentage of points (67%) to defend in the rest of the season. Alexander Zverev has the second highest number of points to defend; out of a total of 6,850 points the German has to defend 4,150 points, amounting to 61%.

Meanwhile, Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic has to defend 2,800 points out of a total of 4,770 points, at 59%. The Serbian player missed the build-up to the US Open in 2021, but reached the final of the hardcourt Major. Djokovic is a big doubt for the 2022 US Open though, as current guidelines in the US prevent him from entering the country as an unvaccinated person.

World No. 6 Carlos Alcaraz and No. 4 Stefanos Tsitsipas could provide a challenge to Nadal, with just 1,025 (21%) and 1,230 (24%) points to defend until the end of the season. Current World No. 5 Casper Ruud has 2,030 points to defend, at 40% of the total.

With many key tournaments to go and very few points to defend - especially in relation to his competitors - Rafael Nadal has a great chance of regaining the World No. 1 spot for the first time since January 2020.