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World No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz will return to the men's tour this week in the Madrid Open 2024. He was last seen competing in the Miami Open, where he reached the semifinals.
Alcaraz was forced to miss the beginning of the European clay swing in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona due to fitness concerns. He will be hoping to find his rhythm in Madrid and begin his title defence on a strong note.
The Spaniard will make his fourth appearance in the Madrid Open this week. He has an impeccable record at the event, garnering 12 wins from 13 matches, including two title-winning runs so far.
On that note, let's analyze his draw and chances of making a deep run at the Madrid Open 2024.
R1 Opponent - Bye
Carlos Alcaraz will receive a first-round bye in Madrid due to his ranking points.
R2 Opponent - Alexander Schevchenko
Carlos Alcaraz will most likely begin his campaign against Alexander Schevchenko in the second round. The head-to-head between the duo is poised at 0-0 as they have never faced each other on tour.
Considering their skill set and results at the highest level, the Spaniard will be a clear favorite to advance to the third round.
Possible R3 Opponent - Lorenzo Musetti
A tricky encounter against Lorenzo Musetti could be on the cards for Alcaraz in the third round of the Madrid Open.
Alcaraz dominates the head-to-head battle against Musetti 4-1 and his only defeat against the Italian came on clay in the Hamburg European Open 2021. Musetti will enter Madrid on the back of a second-round exit in Barcelona. The Italian will test the second seed's fitness levels and present a formidable challenge to him in the third round, but Alcaraz should be able to use his elite skill set and solve this riddle.
Possible R4 Opponent - Jan-Lennard Struff
Carlos Alcaraz could lock horns with Jan-Lennard Struff in the fourth round.
Struff recently won his first ATP title in Munich and will enter Madrid high on confidence. He is expected to defeat the likes of Jaume Munar and Ugo Humbert en route to the fourth round.
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head against Struff 2-1. He defeated the German in the Madrid Open final last year in a close three-set bout. However, If the Spaniard struggles to find his form in the opening few rounds, he could be in for a marathon encounter in the fourth round. Considering their results in the previous two encounters, the second seed should be able to pass this test.
Possible QF Opponent - Andrey Rublev or Holger Rune
Moving on to the business end of the tournament, Carlos Alcaraz is most likely to face Holger Rune or Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals.
The Spaniard leads the head-to-head against Rune 2-1 and Rublev 1-0. Alcaraz also won his previous encounters against the duo, defeating Rune in the Wimbledon Championships 2023 and Rublev in the ATP Finals in Turin last year.
Considering their recent form, Rune has a better chance of making the quarterfinals. He reached the last eight in Monte-Carlo and was two wins away from winning a third title in Munich. On the other hand, Rublev has chalked up second-round exits in the Monte-Carlo and Barcelona.
Rune is known for his resilient all-around game and high tactical acumen on court. If he manages to begin well against Alcaraz, he could have a say in the quarterfinals.
Possible SF Opponent - Alexander Zverev
As for the semifinals, Carlos Alcaraz is most likely to take on World No. 5 Alexander Zverev.
The duo are often seen competing against each other in the final week of important events on tour. Zverev leads the head-to-head against Alcaraz 5-4 and won their most recent encounter in the Australian Open 2024.
The German has a knack for raising his level on the big stage. He outplayed Alcaraz in Melbourne and defeated him in four sets. However, Zverev has never defeated the Spaniard in Madrid and lost their previous encounters in 2022 and 2023 at the venue.
Possible final - Carlos Alcarav vs Jannik Sinner
Lastly, Carlos Alcaraz could set up a clash against Jannik Sinner in the Madrid Open 2024 final. The head-to-head between the duo is poised at 4-4 with the Spaniard winning their most recent encounter in the BNP Paribas Open last month.
Sinner has been a force to be reckoned with on the men's tour this year. He recently overtook Alcaraz in the ATP Rankings and secured the No. 2 spot in the world. The Italian also captured his first Major title in the Australian Open 2024.
While Sinner has won two out of their previous three encounters, Alcaraz will still have the edge in the final, considering his outstanding record in Madrid.
