3 reasons why Boogie Fland withdrawing from NBA draft can backfire

Former Arkansas guard Boogie Fland pulled his name out of the NBA draft and is headed back to school. That's only part of the story, as the school he's heading for is defending champion Florida. It's safe to assume that Fland made the move with an eye on the bottom line, as rumors of massive NIL payouts circulated in the lead-up to his decision. But what if he made a mistake?

3 reasons why Boogie Fland's move could backfire

Florida's Todd Golden might have some issues with Boogie Fland's offensive approach. (Photo Credit: IMAGN)

3. He should have stuck with Calipari

Yes, the former Kentucky boss has had an up-and-down last few years. But take a look around NBA rosters. The fruits of Calipari's labors show in the millions and millions of dollars being earned by guys like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley.

Fland's pick of Arkansas was a calculated move. No offense to Todd Golden, who is one of the best young coaches in the game. But if Fland is indeed eyeing a long career at the next level, transferring probably wasn't the move to make if he didn't feel comfortable in the draft. He should have gone back to Arkansas.

2. Fland will take too many shots to make an impact at Florida

Fland's freshman season was compromised by an injury, but it's worth noting that when he did play, Arkansas struggled. He was injured in Arkansas's fifth conference game. The Hogs went 0-5 and Fland shot 22-for-78 (28%) in those games.

Arkansas mysteriously got much better and worked its way into the NCAA Tournament before Fland's abbreviated postseason return. Meanwhile, Florida didn't have any player take 15.6 shots a game, as Fland did in SEC play. Walter Clayton Jr. took 13.4 shots per game. Todd Golden won't love Boogie's shoot-first and shoot-second game.

1. The 2026 draft figures to be better, not worse than the 2025 draft

Off a historically bad 2024 NBA draft class, the 2025 class looks stronger. But the 2026 class probably has more big movers at the top of the class. While the 2025 group has the starpower of Cooper Flagg, with the number of players who returned to school, plus a deeper freshman class than a year ago, 2026 looks like a harder draft for Fland to crack.

There's always some guesswork involved, but staying around might have been the wrong move just because of the potential of the next class. 2025 is seeing potentially high picks for players like Carter Bryant and Egor Demin, who are very much works in progress. Fland may have picked the wrong year to stay in school.