5 reasons why Caitlin Clark may not win 2024 Naismith Women's College Player of the Year

Defending Naismith Award winner Caitlin Clark has had a historic 2023–24 season. Clark is one of the four finalists for the 2024 Naismith Award and is being viewed as a massive favorite to win the award for a second consecutive year.

Earlier this year, Clark became the all-time leading scorer in women's college basketball. She subsequently surpassed Pete Maravich's men's scoring record as well. Not stopping there, Clark set the single-season women's scoring record.

Additionally, she has somehow improved on already historic totals. Despite facing constant double and triple teams, Clark's scoring average jumped from 27.8 to 31.8 ppg.

Her rebounding improved (7.3 rebounds per game), as did her passing (8.8 assists per game) and her steals (1.8 per game). Clark led Iowa to a No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed.

All of this is to say that, barring a major surprise, Clark will win the Naismith Award. But if she somehow doesn't win, here are the possible cases to be made against her.

Reasons why Caitlin Clark may not win the Naismith Award

1. There's some Clark fatigue out there

Caitlin Clark is a phenomenal talent who has done amazing things. But there are subtle notes of blow-back against her. Some of the crankiness comes from publicity. Many have griped that comparing her records with Maravich's is unfair or deceptive.

Big Ten Women's Basketball Tournament - Championship

In a recent win, cameras caught Clark saying -- well, the kind of thing that competitive basketball players probably often say. The comments were R-rated and serve to fuel criticism of Clark as some sort of entitled superstar.

These criticisms aren't exceptionally substantive. But it could be indicative of some sort of general anti-Caitlin sentiment that could motivate Naismith voters. Likely? Not really. But it is possible.

2. Voters might not favor a repeat winner

Clark did win last season and voters could decide that her moment for accolades is past. Between last year's award and the massive amount of publicity for her exploits this season, there's no danger that anyone isn't aware of Clark.

But in a season where college basketball has had many outstanding performers, voters might want to spread the prestige.

While repeat winners are nothing new, voters recently seem to have favored new candidates. The last repeat winner was in 2016 and a recent trend has moved against senior winners.

The last three winners weren't seniors and last year, voters chose not to honor Aliyah Boston with a second consecutive win-- choosing Clark instead. That trend may just continue.

3. The great defender might be a superior alternative

Clark's scoring punch is historic, but it reflects only part of the game of basketball. A better representative of the entire game could be Stanford star Cameron Brink.

Brink is a rock-steady offensive threat (17.5 ppg), but she is a next-level rebounder and defender.

Brink's 120 blocked shots topped her 118 last season. She led the nation in blocked shots and is second all-time in Pac-12 players in blocks. She's third in the NCAA in rebounding (11.9 per game) and is in the top 10 in league history there.

It's an unlikely possibility, but voters might decide to honor a great defender and not just a great scorer. If so, Brink would certainly fit the bill.

4. The Comeback kid could get the nod

If voters decide to elect a repeat Naismith winner, they might bypass Clark and settle on college basketball's great comeback story.

Paige Bueckers was the Naismith winner as a freshman in 2021. After an injury plagued 2022 season, she tore her ACL and missed the 2023 season entirely.

This makes Bueckers' superb 2024 season extra special. At 21.8 ppg and 5.1 rpg, she has actually surpassed her 2021 production.

Stories matter in basketball circles. Bueckers' return from injury is impressive and inspiring. It could even be the stuff of Naismith Award wins.

5. Voters might elect the next great phenom

If Clark gets bypassed, the other natural selection would be college basketball's newest freshman phenomenon. JuJu Watkins not only got USC to a No. 1 NCAA seed, but she topped Clark's own freshman scoring numbers and is still going.

There is some precedent here. Back in 2021, Bueckers was the first freshman ever picked for the award. She had a phenomenal season and the "appearing out of nowhere" element was hard to avoid.

Watkins is undoubtedly college basketball's next great phenomenon. If anyone has a chance to best Clark's phenomenal scoring marks, it's the USC freshman. She is the face of the future of college basketball.

Clark is the face of the present, but she's a face that's already been honored. Watkins could be the surprise choice.