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Big Ten basketball in 2024 has been about one giant, Purdue, and several NCAA Tournament dwarves. The league is expected to place six teams in the NCAA field, with a seventh not outside the realm of possibility. But the third-ranked Boilermakers have been head and shoulders above the league all year long.
Even so, 13th-ranked Illinois is an intriguing squad, and somebody else could figure to come out of the Big Ten Tournament with positive momentum. A third team separating itself from the pack could benefit from both that jolt of energy and from an improved seed line.
Big Ten March Madness bracket predictions
Obviously, the Big Ten Tournament champion gets an automatic NCAA berth. That's probably the only way into the NCAA field for Michigan, Rutgers, Minnesota, Penn State and Maryland. Indiana is in the same general condition except that a Big Ten final appearance might get them into the field.
Iowa and Ohio State are both projected outside the NCAA field. Each is included in exactly one of the 123 bracket projections collected by BracketMatrix.com. In either case, a run to the league final would likely boost either team, possibly at the expense of one of the Big Ten teams already in the field.
Here's the rundown for the teams probably in the NCAA's Big Dance.
No. 1 seeds prediction
Purdue
The Boilermakers are locked in as a No. 1 seed. Purdue is No. 2 in the NET rankings. With a 28-3 mark and no losses outside quad 1 games, the Boilermakers are solid.
Nothing in the Big Ten Tournament should threaten Purdue's top seed. As the likely No. 2 overall team, a Purdue win coupled with a Houston loss might elevate Purdue to the top overall seed. That would earn them a slightly easier No. 2 seed in their bracket, at least theoretically.
No. 4 seeds prediction
Illinois
Illinois (23-8) should be fairly settled as a No. 4 seed. BracketMatrix.com has the Illini as the second No. 4 seed, with 122 of 123 projected brackets spotting them there. Illinois has a No. 15 NET ranking, with one quad 2 and one quad 3 loss being mostly offset by a large number of top-tier games.
Illinois might jump to a No. 3 seed with a tournament championship or possibly fall to No. 5 with a quarterfinal loss. But even that is questionable, as No. 4 simply makes sense for Illinois.
No. 6 seeds prediction
Wisconsin
The Badgers (19-12) are likely a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. BracketMatrix has the Badgers as the second No. 6 seed. While some predictions put Wisconsin as high as No. 5 or as low as No. 7, splitting the difference is the likely outcome.
Still, as with Illinois, an upward or downward movement based on Big Ten Tournament results is possible. With a No. 22 NET ranking, a good week could slide the Badgers to a No. 5 seed.
No. 9 seeds prediction
Northwestern
Despite a No. 50 NET ranking, Northwestern (21-10) should be solidly within the NCAA Tournament field. BracketMatrix projects the Wildcats as the last No. 8 seed, but more projections have them at No. 9 than No. 8.
The low NET score probably stems from a quad 4 loss earlier this season. Northwestern could swing up to a No. 8 seed or down to a No. 9, particularly in conjunction with the next team.
Nebraska
The Huskers (22-9) are No. 37 in the NET but are still generally projected as a No. 9 seed. With no sub-quad 2 losses, Nebraska has been more consistent than Northwestern.
A win over Illinois would probably jump Nebraska to a No. 8 seed. A No. 7 might not be out of the question entirely.
No. 10 seeds prediction
Michigan State
On the one hand, Michigan State was just 10-10 in league play and 18-13 overall. On the other hand, they are No. 24 in the NET rankings. MSU has no sub-quad 2 losses.
Michigan State is projected in the field in all 123 BracketMatrix predictions. Projected seedings range from No. 9 to No. 11. A bad performance at the Big Ten performance could drop State into the First Four, which they would certainly prefer to avoid.
