AP Poll Top 25 Men's College Basketball Rankings Prediction for Week 16

Modified Feb 28, 2024 17:56 GMT

Gonzaga v Portland — Look for Gonzaga and coach Mark Few to jump into the top 25 in this coming week. Who else could be on the move in the poll?

With March Madness almost in sight, it's difficult to wait for the new AP Poll of the top 25 college basketball teams to come out.

Instead of waiting around, let's take a look at the potential big shifts ahead of the release of the poll on Monday.

Here are our guesses about how it might end up shifting the college hoops landscape.

Projected AP Top 25 College Basketball Rankings

First, here's the current top 25 for reference:

Last week's ranking	Team (first place votes)	Overall record	Total ranking points	Ranking from the previous week
1	UConn (62)	24-2	1550	1
2	Houston	22-3	1473	3
3	Purdue	23-3	1414	2
4	Arizona	20-5	1373	5
5	Tennessee	19-6	1230	8
6	Iowa State	20-5	1160	10
7	Marquette	19-6	114	4
8	Duke	20-5	116	9
9	Kansas	20-6	1065	6
10	North Carolina	20-6	1044	7
11	Baylor	19-6	959	12
12	Illinois	19-6	853	14
13	Alabama	18-7	803	15
14	Auburn	2-0-6	690	13
15	Creighton	19-7	612	17
16	Dayton	21-4	584	16
17	Kentucky	18-7	540	22
18	Saint Mary's (CA)	22-6	486	18
19	San Diego State	21-6	374	NR
20	South Carolina	21-5	346	11
21	Washington State	20-6	215	NR
22	Colorado State	20-6	171	NR
23	Texas Tech	18-7	135	NR
24	Florida	18-7	124	NR
25	BYU	18-7	123	19

And now, our best projections about what could change:

Potential upsets in top 25

Isaiah Stevens and Colorado State had a tough week and may fall out of the top 25.

Look for No. 22 Colorado State to fall out of the poll. It was a 0-2 week for the Rams, with a 68-66 loss to an unranked New Mexico team on Wednesday and a 66-60 loss to unranked UNLV on Saturday.

BYU could well fall out of the top 25. The Cougars bested No. 11 Baylor 78-71 on Tuesday, but, on Saturday, lost 84-74 to an unranked Kansas State team.

Texas Tech might also fall out of the poll. Ranked 23rd, the Red Raiders just survived an 82-81 win over TCU on Tuesday but took a heavy 75-61 loss to UCF on Saturday.

Potential shakeups in top 10

There were several top-10 losses, some of which will likely move teams up or down a few spots.

One outlier is UConn, which probably sticks at No. 1, even with its 85-66 loss to Creighton on Tuesday. A nice 78-54 win on Saturday over Villanova should help keep the Huskies on top.

No. 4 Arizona, meanwhile, will likely take a drop with its 77-74 home loss to No. 21 Washington State. The Wildcats survived the week with a 91-75 win over Washington but will likely fall a spot or two.

Likewise, Duke will drop following its 83-79 loss to Wake Forest on Saturday. The Blue Devils beat Miami 84-55 on Wednesday, though. The No. 8 Blue Devils could drop a spot or two but will likely not fall out of the top 10.

No. 6 Iowa State lost 73-65 on Monday but to No. 2 Houston. The Cyclones rebounded with a 71-64 win over West Virginia on Saturday, so a minor drop won't surprise anyone.

Potential newcomers to top 25

Gonzaga probably jumps into the top 25 after a convincing win over a decent Santa Clara team on Saturday. Earlier in the week, the Bulldogs bested Portland 86-65. Gonzaga moved to 22-6 overall, and its win over Kentucky gained some luster with the Wildcats' thumping of Alabama on Saturday.

Wisconsin is another excellent possibility for a climb into the top 25. The Badgers bested Maryland 74-70 to move to 18-9 on the season. The Big Ten only has a pair of ranked teams. Wisconsin is third in the standings and could make the jump into the top 25.

Who do you see making the top 25? Anybody headed for a big fall? Let's hear your thoughts in the comments section below.