Will Kansas State make the 2024 NCAA Tournament? Breaking down Wildcats' March Madness 2024 odds

A year ago, Jerome Tang and the Kansas State Wildcats reached the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament, but can they make it back to the Big Dance in 2024?

As of early February, the Wildcats (14-8, 4-5) might be slightly on the outside of the NCAA Tournament bubble. But there's still time for K-State to patch up a few issues and nab a berth in the tournament. Here's the skinny on their situation.

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Kansas State NCAA Tournament history

Kansas State coach Jerome Tang

Last season's Elite Eight run was the 14th in Kansas State history. But the Wildcats are 0-8 in Regional Finals since 1964 when they last reached the Final Four. The Wildcats have reached four Final Fours, and in 1951, reached the NCAA Finals, where they lost to Kentucky and Adolph Rupp, 68-58.

In the last decade, KSU is 7-5 in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats have made the field five times in that span (there was no 2020 Tournament due to the COVID-19 pandemic).

K-State reached the Elite Eight in 2018 and 2023, and in both cases, lost to underdogs, Loyola-Chicago in 2018 and Florida Atlantic in 2023.

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Kansas State March Madness Odds

TeamRanking projects the Wildcats at just a 19% chance of making the NCAA Tournament field this year.

Odds for KSU to win the NCAA title range at the moment from +8000 to +35000, with odds for a Final Four trip ranging from +4000 to +11000. Of the 85 NCAA bracket predictions gathered at BracketMatrix.com, only 12 predictions have KSU in the NCAA Tournament field.

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Kansas State strengths

The Wildcats are stingy defensively. The allow 68.7 points per game and hold opponents to 40.1% shooting, which is in the top tenth of Division I programs. In conference play, they have been even better, leading the Big 12 is opposing shooting percentage (38.9%) and fourth in scoring defense (67.7 ppg).

State also has three excellent scorers in junior shooting guard Camryn Carter (15.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.0 3-pointers per game), senior point guard Tylor Perry (14.6 ppg, 4.8 apg, 2.7 3-pointers per game) and six-foot-seven sophomore forward Arthur Kaluma (14.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg).

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Kansas State weaknesses

K-State isn't a great offensive team. They're 262nd in D1 teams, at 43.3% shooting overall. They're 309th in 3-point accuracy (31.1%) and have the 15th highest turnover average in the country (14.9 per game).

Kansas State also lacks much depth. They only have five players who score more than 4.6 points per game. Kansas State is just 3-6 when they fail to score 70 points in a game.

A lack of shooting talent and depth puts a ton of pressure on the Wildcats' three scorers, who have scored over 61% of their points.

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Kansas State's Quadrant Records

Kansas State is 1-3 in quadrant 1 games in the NCAA's NET Rankings, with that win coming over Baylor in a 68-64 overtime win on Jan. 16. The Wildcats are a modest 4-4 in quadrant 2 games.

K-State is 3-1 in quadrant 3 games, indicate a poor loss that will sting a bit in NCAA consideration. That loss was a 75-72 road defeat to Oklahoma State in the Wildcats' last game.

The Cowboys are 139th in the NET, so it might take some work on their part to get the game moved to quadrant 2. The good news is that State is 6-0 in quadrant 4 games, so they avoided any disasters.

Six of Kansas State's last nine regular season games come against teams ranked in the top 25. They will get several chances to add meaningful wins, and with the exception of a home game against West Virgnia, there's no real chance for a poor loss.