Will LSU make the March Madness 2024? Breaking down Tigers NCAA tournament odds

Joe Cox
LSU v Tennessee
LSU coach Matt McMahon needs to see his team be both lucky and good to make an NCAA Tournament run.

On Saturday, LSU defeated No. 11 South Carolina, 64-63. The Tigers still have a long way to go before they can compete in the NCAA Tournament. Saturday's victory was essential, but it is only one of several positive outcomes that LSU must achieve to be considered for Selection Sunday.

Will LSU make the 2024 NCAA Tournament?

Probably not. The Tigers need a lengthy run of surprising success to pull within hailing distance of the Big Dance. Coming into Saturday, LSU had lost six of its last seven SEC games. The Tigers need a run in the opposite direction to end the season and be in the NCAA Tournament conversation.

With a 13-12 overall record, the Tigers can't afford losses and need impressive wins. The rest of the regular season includes only one shot at a big victory at home against Kentucky. LSU's last five regular-season games are all winnable, but they won't do a ton to boost the Tigers' stock.

LSU basketball NCAA Tournament history

The Tigers have never won an NCAA championship, but they have made four Final Fours, the last in 2006. LSU's all-time NCAA Tournament record is 27-27. The Tigers' last NCAA Tournament appearance was in 2022, while their last Sweet Sixteen appearance came in 2019.

LSU March Madness odds

LSU currently has +20,000 odds to win the NCAA title. The Tigers have odds ranging from +5000 to +25000 to reach the Final Four. Teamrankings.com gives LSU a 0.4% chance of making the NCAA Tournament.

LSU strengths

LSU's Jalen Cook (#3) is key to the Tigers' postseason hopes.
LSU's Jalen Cook (#3) is key to the Tigers' postseason hopes.

The Tigers have a nice trio of scorers in junior guard Jalen Cook (15.6 ppg), senior guard Jordan Wright (15.0 ppg) and senior center Will Baker (12.6 ppg).

In league play, the Tigers have done a good job shooting the 3-point shot (37.4%, third in the SEC) and defending the 3-point shot (32.5%, fifth in the SEC). LSU has a fairly soft schedule to finish the regular season.

LSU weaknesses

The Tigers are mediocre defensively, allowing 74.8 ppg. The Tigers are also outrebounded on average. The Tigers have suffered some surprisingly awful losses. Had LSU done a better job taking care of business early, they might not need such a crazy run late in the season.

LSU's quadrant records

The Tigers are just 3-7 against quadrant 1 teams, 2-3 in quadrant 2 games, 1-1 in quadrant 3 games and 7-1 in quadrant 4 games. A November loss to Nicholls State is something of a lead weight on LSU's postseason hopes.

Do you think LSU can reach the Big Dance? What would you like to see from LSU down the season stretch? Let us know in the comments section below.

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