College football prediction is an exercise in futility. For every prediction the media gets right, there's another that goes awry. And admittedly, the element of surprise can manifest itself in college football in a million ways. Shocking injuries, massive upsets, coaching changes and chemistry breakdowns all impact every season. But here are ten preseason storylines that the college football media is getting wrong.
10 totally wrong college football storylines from media polls
#1.Texas second in the SEC
The Longhorns are off a CFP season, but they moved up a step in difficulty by joining the SEC. Sure, Alabama has plenty of question marks after a coaching change, but putting Texas ahead of an Alabama team that has already proven its SEC bona fides seems like a risky call. For that matter, LSU and Ole Miss could both easily outshine Texas in 2024.
#2. Missouri ahead of Oklahoma and Tennessee
On the other hand, Missouri's 11-win season in 2023 is getting them too much credit in 2024. The Tigers lost defensive coordinator Blake Baker and return only four defensive starters. Eli Drinkwitz's team also lost standout power runner Cody Schrader,who had 1,627 yards and 14 scores. The Tigers will take a step back and the Sooners and Vols will be better.
#3. Nebraska in the top half of the Big Ten
Optimism is a fine thing, but Nebraska is on seven consecutive losing seasons, so picking them to finish in the top half of the Big Ten feels a little premature. A year ago, the Huskers scored just 18 points per game and allowed 30 QB sacks. Even if they can win six games or even seven, the top half of the Big Ten seems a bit off.
#4. Washington in the bottom half of the Big Ten
On the other hand, Washington comes off a season that saw them reach the national title game. Yes, they had significant losses, especially on offense and with coach Kalen DeBoer. But the Huskies had five double-digit win totals in the last eight seasons. Will they take a step back? Yes, but not to the lower half of their league.
#5. Miami third in the ACC
On the other hand, Miami hasn't topped eight wins in the last six years, but find themselves ranked third in the ACC. The Hurricanes were 7-6 a year ago and went just 1-3 against ranked opponents. Yes, Miami has added plenty of new talent, but third in the league is a tall hurdle.
#6. Duke too high at 11th
For Duke, even 11th place seems too high. Yes, the Blue Devils won eight games a year ago. But they have to replace Mike Elko, who headed to Texas A&M. Duke lost its top passer, rusher, second-best receiver, top two sack artists and top pass defender and interceptor. It'll be a tough season in Durham-- one that will see Duke at or very near the bottom of the ACC.
#7. Kansas fourth in the Big 12
Kansas had an impresssive 2023 campaign, with their first winning season since 2008. But even in the 9-4 season, Kansas tied for seventh in the Big 12. A jump to fourth feels incredibly optimistic for a team that lost its starting QB, its top two tacklers and its leading pass rusher.
#8. Iowa State sixth in the Big 12
On the other hand, Iowa State is a bit underrated at sixth. The Cyclones return virtually all of their starters from last season's 7-6 team that improved as the season went. Their top passer, rusher, top four receivers and top five tacklers have all returned. Matt Campbell's team could creep near the top of the Big 12 despite college football media picking them lower.
#9. Memphis atop the AAC
Off a ten-win season, Memphis was the pre-season college football media pick to win the AAC. Their best season since 2019 landed them in fourth place with 10 wins. But the Tigers lose feature back Blake Watson, who rushed for 1,152 yards and 14 scores. Five of the top seven tacklers aren't returning. Memphis will make another bowl, but winning the league feels like a stretch.
#10. Army fifth in the AAC
Army is a new AAC member, and picking a team fifth in the league off a pair of 6-6 seasons that included FCS wins is unusual, even for college football media. Yes, the grind-it-out ground approach is unusual. But Army will struggle to adapt to conference play after being an Independent. Almost their entire defense will be new in 2024. The top half of the AAC seems unlikely for the Black Knights.
Which preseason college football predictions did you find odd? Weigh in below with your thoughts in our comments section!
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