The Big 12's championship hunt is an absolute mess. Nine Big 12 teams technically still have a chance to claim the league title. That said, five of the teams need some manner of absolute chaos to have a shot. There are four substantial contenders and yes, Deion Sanders' Colorado Buffaloes are one of them.
One thing to settle up front though. Given that every team in the Big 12 now has at least two losses, this is a one-big league. In fact, ESPN's FPI gives all the teams in the Big 12 a combined playoff shot of 85.8%.
If the Big 12 champion falls below not only Boise but another Group of Five team in the CFP rankings, the league could be left out entirely.
Now, that's extremely unlikely to happen. Then again, the whole point here is to dissect all possible situations. So the five teams who need chaos also need to be aware that chaos might give them a league crown with no trip to the playoff.
Big 12 Championship scenarios
The contenders
Four Big 12 teams have 6-2 league marks. If any two of them win, the 5-3 teams are out of the discussion entirely. The 6-2 teams and their opponents are: 9-2 Arizona State (playing 4-7 Arizona), 9-2 Iowa State (playing 8-3 Kansas State), 9-2 BYU (playing 4-7 Houston) and 8-3 Colorado (playing 3-8 Oklahoma State).
As you can see, three of these teams will be substantial favorites in their games. The odds are very good that two or more of them will win and the matter will be cleared up without invoking the 5-3 teams.
The most ideal situation would be for exactly two of the teams to win, in which case those teams would play for the Big 12 title.
The three team scenarios are a little harder to track. If ASU, ISU and BYU win but Colorado loses, the title game is Arizona State vs. Iowa State. If ISU, BYU and Colorado win, but ASU loses, the title game is Iowa State vs. BYU. If ASU, BYU and Colorado win, but ISU loses, the title game is Arizona State vs. BYU.
If ASU, ISU and Colorado all win but BYU loses AND Texas Tech, Baylor and Cincinnati win, then the title game is Colorado vs. Iowa State. If ASU, ISU and Colorado all win but BYU loses and West Virginia wins, then the title game is Arizona State vs. Iowa State.
In any other scenario in which ASU, ISU and Colorado win but BYU loses, the title game is Colorado vs. Arizona State.
On the other hand, if all four of the contenders win, the Big 12 title game will be Arizona State vs. Iowa State.
ESPN's FPI gives the field pretty good odds. Iowa State has a 30.8% chance to win the league title, with Arizona State at a 30% chance to win.
The other major contender is BYU, with a 25.9% chance. Colorado and Coach Prime have the toughest path of the four, with just a 10.4% chance to win the league. That does leave another space of nearly 3%.
The other five
OK, here's where it gets really wild. There are five 5-3 teams in the Big 12. Again, at least three of the four 6-2 teams have to lose to give any of the 5-3 teams a shot. A 5-3 team, of course, has to win itself to have any shot to climb.
Those five teams (and their opponents) are: 7-4 Baylor (vs. 5-6 Kansas), 8-3 Kansas State (vs. 9-2 Iowa State), 7-4 TCU (vs. 5-6 Cincinnati), 7-4 Texas Tech (vs. 6-5 West Virginia) and 6-5 West Virginia (vs. 7-4 Texas Tech).
Of that group, Kansas State has both the hardest task and the built-in advantage that winning its game would give at least one of the 6-2 teams a loss. That's probably why ESPN gives the Wildcats a 1.8% shot at winning the league.
The other teams that FPI sees fit to give any quantifiable shot at the title are Baylor (0.9%) and Texas Tech (0.1%). Tech could trim West Virginia from the 5-3 hopefuls by winning its game, but Baylor's path is still tough.
Kansas is one of the hottest teams in the Big 12 and beating the Jayhawks and getting more than two of the 6-2 teams to lose seems like a huge ask.
Of course, there are still tiebreakers beyond the standings. But given the odds, none of these 5-3 teams would probably end up factoring into much of anything, aside from Kansas State, which directly impacts Iowa State.
What do you think of our title scenarios and who do you think will win? Share your thoughts below in our comments section!
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