NFL draft analyst delivers verdict on Arch Manning’s future as AFC scouting director casts doubt on his ability to go as No. 1 pick

Arch Manning has started only two games in college football. While there is a lot of hype around the Texas Longhorns quarterback, according to ESPN's Albert Breer, NFL teams are still taking it slowly.

The insider mentioned that while there are some appealing traits in Manning's game, the people from around the League just haven't seen enough of the quarterback on the field. This makes a first overall pick unlikely at this point.

“They're almost surprised with that last name that he has that speed. He gets transformed into this elite prospect. The reality is we haven't really seen him run the offense with any consistency yet. And that’s not his fault, he just hasn’t played," an AFC college scouting director told Albert Breer.

Breer also pointed towards Manning's predecessor at Texas, Quinn Ewers. There were high expectations when Ewers took the Longhorns' starting position after transferring from Ohio State in 2022. Instead, he was drafted in the seventh round of this year's NFL draft.

Arch Manning threw for 939 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions in limited playing time last year. He started games against UL Monroe and Mississippi State in place of the injured Ewers.

Unlike his uncles, Arch can make plays with his legs. He ran for 108 yards and four touchdowns on 25 carries and was used consistently in short-yardage situations as a running threat. He will be entering his sophomore season in Austin.

Breer added that he believes it's more likely that Arch Manning will enter the 2027 or 2028 draft instead of next season's, earning more playing experience in the process.

The 2026 draft is also expected to be loaded at the position with players like Drew Allar, Cade Klubnik, Garrett Nussmeier and LaNorris Seller potentially entering it.

Arch Manning will welcome a new member to Texas QB room

There is little question that Arch Manning will be the Texas Longhorns' starting quarterback in 2025. However, the team added depth at the position with former Troy quarterback Matthew Caldwell reportedly set to join the Longhorns for next season. On3's Pete Nakos first reported the move.

Caldwell passed for 608 yards, 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions for the Trojans last season. He is expected to compete with Trey Owens, Karlee Lacy Jr. and Joe Tatum for a spot on the depth chart.

Arch Manning filled in last year as the starter after Quinn Ewers suffered a torn oblique. Ewers missed two games because of injury, but Manning filled in solidly, underlining the importance of having a quality backup.