SEC Championship scenarios after Week 13: Alabama gets knocked out, Texas or A&M to face Georgia

Joe Cox
Georgia and coach Kirby Smart could face Texas A&M and coach Mike Elko for the SEC crown. (Photo Credits: IMAGN)
Georgia and coach Kirby Smart could face Texas A&M and coach Mike Elko for the SEC crown. (Photo Credits: IMAGN)

While many leagues have convoluted and difficult tie-breaking systems that will cast an odd shadow over their conference title games, the SEC does not. It's a pretty simple situation. There are exactly two possible scenarios for the SEC title game, depending on a single matchup in Week 14. Here's the details – and what this could mean for the CFP.

SEC Championship scenarios after Week 13

QB Quinn Ewers, coach Steve Sarkisian and Texas have the cleanest path to the CFP of anyone in the SEC. (Photo Credit: IMAGN)
QB Quinn Ewers, coach Steve Sarkisian and Texas have the cleanest path to the CFP of anyone in the SEC. (Photo Credit: IMAGN)

1. Texas vs. Georgia

The Georgia Bulldogs (9-2, 6-2 in SEC) are in the SEC title game regardless. The picture of how can get convoluted if the A&M beats Texas and there are as many as four 6-2 SEC teams. But the Bulldogs have the advantage even in that situation.

The most simple situation here is that if Texas (10-1, 7-1 in SEC) beats A&M (8-3, 5-2), the Longhorns finish first in the league and go to the title game.

Georgia would tie for second with Tennessee if the Vols defeat Vanderbilt, as is expected. That said, Georgia has the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Vols, so they would get the second spot in the league title gamer.

2. Texas A&M vs. Georgia

On the other hand, if A&M upsets Texas, then there are, as noted, potentially four 6-2 SEC teams atop the league. The tiebreaker in such an instance would be the fourth criterion on the SEC's list, which is the conference winning percentage of the teams' conference opponents.

Texas A&M (28-30) and Georgia (26-32) have the lead in that category, meaning they would face each other for the SEC title.

What does it all mean for the CFP?

Well, first things, it's time to consider the CFP for all teams not Texas, Georgia or Texas A&M, because they won't be in the SEC title game. Basically, that means Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina in a surprising leap.

Tennessee looks to be in the playoff, barring a Week 14 loss to Vanderbilt. ESPN's FPI has the Vols at a 75.2% chance of a playoff berth and gives them a 79.7% chance to defeat the Commodores. If Tennessee loses, its situation gets much dicier.

Alabama does not look to be in particularly good shape, although that could change. The 8-3 Tide are given a 37.2% shot at the playoff by FPI. The Tide would basically be the first team out under that metric. Alabama could use a little bit of help or there's a solid chance that the Tide are missing the playoff.

South Carolina is the one random outlier here. Nobody was looking at the Gamecocks as a playoff team, but here they come.

Carolina is 8-3 and plays a 9-2 Clemson team from the ACC that could genuinely help their resume. A 9-3 South Carolina team that won its last six games of the season might be intriguing. FPI gives Carolina a 24% shot at the playoff.

As for the other three teams, Texas is in the CFP regardless. A loss to A&M leaves a 10-2 Longhorn team solidly in the field. A win over A&M and a loss to Georgia leaves an 11-2 Longhorn team solidly in the field. No questions here.

Georgia is probably safe. They do need to avoid a loss to Georgia Tech and then a loss in the SEC title game, but a 10-3 Georgia team would probably be good enough to earn a CFP berth. A 9-4 team likely would get jumped by Alabama and maybe South Carolina. So Georgia basically has to avoid losing both games.

Texas A&M basically has to win out to make the playoff. FPI gives the 8-3 Aggies just a 6.3% shot at the field. It's not a mathematical coincidence that FPI gives A&M basically the same chance of first beating the Aggies and then beating Georgia in the SEC title game. That's their path.

What do you think of the SEC scenarios and who do you hope to see play for the league crown? Leave your thoughts below in our comments section!

Texas Longhorns Fan? Check out the latest Texas Longhorns depth chart, schedule, and roster updates all in one place.

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Edited by Akshay Saraswat
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