"That is not easy": CFB insider claims Oregon’s tedious November stretch could end Dan Lanning's playoff hopes in 2025

Oregon enters the 2025 season with the hopes of returning to the College Football Playoff. The Ducks were the only undefeated team in the Football Bowl Subdivision last season, winning the Big Ten championship. This raises the expectations for them ahead of next season.

However, Josh Pate has pointed out a potential obstacle to Dan Lanning's team's playoff hopes in 2025. In an episode of the “Josh Pate College Football Show” on Thursday, the analyst noted that Oregon's tough November schedule could potentially jeopardize its playoff chances.

“Notice there's no Ohio State on here,” Pate said (Timestamp: 4:56). “There's no Michigan on here. This is a workable schedule. I want you to look at the last four games because that's not easy. They go to Iowa. They got Minnesota at home, USC at home, and they go to Washington to end the year.

“Now, I am someone who believes Iowa and Washington are better teams this year, and you've got to go to their buildings all in November, and you sandwich Minnesota and USC in between there, and I think Minnesota's off a bye before you play them, although I'd have to check that. But that is not easy.”

Iowa, USC and Washington had a disappointing season in 2024, but the three are anticipated to return stronger in the upcoming season. This tough stretch poses a significant threat to the Ducks’ ambition, especially if they don't play as brilliantly as they did last season.

Josh Pate discloses a model prediction for Oregon in 2025

Rounding up his discussion on Oregon's schedule in the upcoming season, Josh Pate discloses what the season could look like for the Ducks with an AI model prediction. The analyst discloses what the model had as the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the program.

“When we run that schedule through the model here, it's got 12-0 as the best-case scenario for Oregon,” Pate said. “That's just how highly the model thinks of Dan Lanning. The worst case it's got is 7-5. Do we buy that, 7-5? In this day and age, yes. Most people's worst-case is going to be 7 wins or fewer.

“…The most likely record is 10-2. The model has Oregon going 10-2. Maybe good enough to go to Indianapolis. That's good enough to be in the playoffs, obviously. 10-2 for Oregon. All things considered, I think you take that right now and you run with it. But who knows? It could be better than that.”

The Ducks have improved in every season under Dan Lanning, going from 10-3 to 12-2 to 13-1 last year. However, the program lost more than 12 seniors from the previous season, including a significant number of starters. While they made noteworthy portal additions, they could face some challenges in 2025.