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In 2021, TCU's record was 5-7. It was the end of an era, as coach Gary Patterson left the Horned Frogs after nearly two decades. Then, in 2022, with a 13-2 record, the Horned Frogs became the Cinderellas of the college football world. They were Fiesta Bowl champions and earned a national title berth.
What a difference a year makes. Is Sonny Dykes starting a revolution in Fort Worth? Or will the Horned Frogs be one-year wonders?
Let's preview TCU's 2023 season, including a way-too-early season prediction.
TCU's way-too-early season prediction
The Cinderella run of 2022 is over. The Horned Frogs will field 11 new starters, including replacing superstars Max Duggan, Quentin Johnston, and Kendra Miller. However, most of the defense that created the “KillerFrogs” are back. Seven starters will return for 2023.
The team's schedule could help out a ton with any early offensive kinks. The Horned Frogs' first three games are against an unpredictable Colorado team with all its transfers (Sept. 2), Nicholls State (Sept. 9), and new Big-12 member the University of Houston (Sept 16).
No one should be surprised if the Horned Frogs are undefeated going into the game against Iowa State (Oct. 7).
From then on, it gets tougher. The rematch with Kansas State looms large (Oct. 21). Texas is the favorite to win the Big 12. The Horned Frongs will take on the Longhorns on Nov. 11. Baylor should be improved. Their match will take place on Nov. 18. Oklahoma should be showing signs of improvement as well as they take on the Horned Frogs in the last game of the season (Nov. 24).
TCU should finish with 9-10 wins, and depending on who those wins are, get back to the Big 12 championship game for the second-straight season.
Key matchups for the 2023 season
The Horned Frogs don’t leave their home state of Texas until Week 6, and that will only be for a total of three times. Those games are filled with a ton of long-standing rivalries when they take on Texas, Baylor and Texas Tech.
While the expectations are to get back to the college football playoff, it is to consistently compete for the Big 12 championship. Beating their rivals will be key.
The team's newest rival is Coach Kleiman’s Kansas State Wildcats. These are the same Wildcats that ripped the Horned Frogs' heart out in overtime to take the Big 12 championship from them. It's a game circled on Coach Sonny Dykes' club's calendar.
Players to watch
TCU has to replace almost all of its offensive production, including its clutches performers. It starts at the QB position, a position that doesn’t have a clear winner yet. Chandler Morris was the incumbent starter before being injured and before Max Duggan took over. Josh Hoover has excelled in spring practice, raising questions that Morris might be upstaged once more. And because it’s 2023, former Oregon State quarterback Chance Nolan transferred, following the spring season.
Much of the "KillerFrog" defense returns, and they will have to be the heart and soul of this team. Standouts include cornerback Josh Newton and safety Mark Perry.
The team doesn’t have the star power that it once did. But the same could be said for this time last season.
Roster analysis
The 2022 magical season led to eight Horned Frogs being selected in the 2023 NFL draft.
But the Frogs hit the transfer portal hard. According to on3’s portal rankings, TCU is 18th in the nation. A lot of those transfers come on the offensive side of the ball and the defensive trenches. Both were areas of need going into the transfer window.
Coaching staff and strategies
TCU loses not only its offensive on-field production but also its play-caller in Garrett Riley. Head coach Sonny Dykes hired Kendall Briles, Arkansas offensive coordinator, to replace Riley.
Biles will have a tough task, basically starting from zero once more. However, his lengthy play-calling experience and his success at Arkansas should get TCU fans excited.
Last season, TCU’s defense and its three safety scheme was the talk of college football. It will be much of the same this year schematically, as all but one of its starters in the defensive return in 2023. They were on the cutting edge of modern defensive play in college football.
Expectations and goals
Despite what the most hard-core Frogs fans want to see, the Cinderella run of 2022 was, probably, a Cinderella run. To expect them to return to the college football playoff is lunacy. But if anybody can do it, Sonny Dykes team has already done it once, coming in the first year and winning a bunch of games they were told they had no chance in.
However, that second year is so key for head coaches. If TCU were to fall back into a six or seven-win team, all the momentum made from their run and their historic recruiting class could come to a crashing halt.
This will be an incredibly important year for TCU.
