What happens if Penn State loses to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game? CFP, NY6 Bowl scenarios explored

The 2024 Big Ten Championship Game features the undefeated No. 1 Oregon Ducks (12-0, 9-0) against the No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1, 8-1). Oregon is looking to complete a perfect season and lock up the top seed in the College Football Playoff (CFP). Meanwhile, Penn State, with its best season in years, aims to secure its first Big Ten title since 2016.

Even with a loss, the Nittany Lions appear set for their first CFP appearance, but how Saturday’s outcome impacts their seeding remains critical.

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What happens if Oregon beats Penn State?

A loss to Oregon in the Big Ten title game won’t knock Penn State out of the CFP race, but it could affect their seeding. The Nittany Lions, projected as a top-four team, could drop out of the top four and into the No. 5-8 range. That would mean hosting a first-round playoff game rather than enjoying the coveted first-round bye reserved for the top four seeds.

Penn State’s report card lacks a signature win over a top opponent. Losing to Oregon will leave them as an 11-2 team without a conference title, potentially trailing Ohio State, which holds a head-to-head win over the Nittany Lions. However, if the loss is competitive and by a narrow margin, the committee is unlikely to penalize them too harshly.

The worst-case scenario for Penn State would be a big margin defeat, which might raise questions about their ability to compete at the highest level. Even in that case, it's not going to be easy for the committee to leave out an 11-win team that reached its conference championship game.

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Who is favored to win Oregon vs. Penn State?

The Ducks have been dominant all season, including a 49-21 win over Washington in their last outing. However, ESPN’s metrics suggest that this game could go either way, giving Penn State a 51% chance to win.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Oregon is a 3.5-point favorite over Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game, with a money line of -175 for Oregon and +145 for Penn State.

The over/under for total points scored is set at 50.5. Additionally, the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) projects Oregon as a 5-point favorite.

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How many times has Penn State beaten Oregon?

Penn State and Oregon have faced each other four times, with the Nittany Lions leading the series 3-1.

The most recent matchup between the two programs took place in the 1995 Rose Bowl, where Penn State capped off a perfect 12-0 season with a commanding 38-20 victory.

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Has Penn State ever won the Big Ten Championship?

Penn State has claimed four Big Ten titles and won its first Big Ten championship in 1994.

It won two more in 2005 and 2008 and a fourth under its current coach James Franklin in 2016, where the Nittany Lions beat Wisconsin 38-31 in a thrilling comeback. Trace McSorley’s strong passing performance and key defensive stops in the fourth quarter sealed the win.