Will Pac-12 remain in Power 5 as USC & UCLA leave for Big Ten? Demotion to Group of 5 exists with Big East setting the precedent

The impending exit of USC and UCLA from Pac-12 has left the conference shaken. No replacements have been found yet, and the conference is struggling to find a new media rights deal. Meanwhile, some conference members may be on their way out soon as rival leagues like the Big 12 are also looking to expand.

This naturally leads to the question about its status as a Power Five conference. Will it remain Power Five or will we witness its demotion in the coming months?

Conference demotion is not unprecedented in the history of college sports.

Following a series of exits during the late 2000s and early 2010s college realignment, the Big East became a shell of its great former self. This led to its informal demotion in status from a Power Five conference. Even after it was rebranded as the American Athletic Conference, it has not recovered.

Pac-12's chances of maintaining its Power Five status

There are a lot of factors that can affect Pac-12’s status going forward. First, its ability to retain its members. Pac-12’s troubles started with the decision of two important members, USC and UCLA, to switch to the Big Ten. It remains in danger of losing more of its members. If this happens, its Power Five status can be lost in no time.

Despite their individual strengths, USC and UCLA’s exits don’t threaten Pac-12’s status as such. The real threat is in the potential loss of other powerful members such as Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado. The status of a conference is dependent on the strength of its members.

Its status also depends on its success in finding a satisfactory media rights deal. It continues its search for a media rights deal which has seemed elusive until now. Members want a deal that will give them enough revenue to remain competitive and will opt out of the conference if they don’t get it.

The conference is in dire straits, and a solution is desperately needed. The next weeks are crucial in its fight for survival and continued relevance. Delay is dangerous as conference realignment continues in full force. The Pac-12’s position in its media deal negotiation may worsen if any of its members bale out.

Only time will tell.