Will Tennessee make the College Football Playoff? Exploring Volunteers' playoff chances in 2024

The No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers lost 31-17 to the No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday. The loss puts Tennessee in a five-way tie for second place in the Southeastern Conference alongside Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss.

As a result, we do not yet know who will play in the SEC championship game. Despite the loss, the Volunteers (8-2, 5-2 SEC) still have a good chance of making the playoffs.

What are Tennessee's playoff chances?

According to ESPN's playoff predictor, the Volunteers still have a 66% chance of making the playoffs despite their loss to Georgia. With games against UTEP and Vanderbilt remaining, winning both could further boost their playoff chances.

College football playoff scenarios for Tennessee

In the new 12-team playoff format, the five highest-ranked conference champions automatically make the playoffs. The four highest-ranked champions earn a bye in the first round. The next seven slots go to the highest-ranked teams, regardless of conference placement.

Tennessee will likely see a small drop in its ranking after losing to Georgia, but it should stay in the top 10. If The Volunteers can win the final two regular season games, they should be in a good position to make the playoffs. However, any loss would likely eliminate their chances of making the SEC championship game and would likely cause voters to drop them out of a playoff position.

Who would Tennessee play in the playoffs if the season ended today?

After Week 12, Oregon, Texas, BYU and Miami hold the top spots, earning first-round byes. As the final automatic qualifier, Boise State would secure the No. 5 seed. If the standings remain unchanged, Tennessee would claim the No. 9 seed.

As a result, the Volunteers would play the eighth seed in the first round. As things stand, that team would be the Indiana Hoosiers.

Another scenario for the Volunteers unfolds if they make the SEC championship game. A loss likely wouldn’t affect their standings, allowing them to retain their current ranking.

However, a win would secure automatic qualification and likely earn them a first-round bye. In that case, Tennessee would likely be the No. 2 seed behind the Big Ten champion. They would then face the winner of the No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchup in the second round, currently projected as Penn State and Notre Dame.