Test Cricket, Toss and the old adage

“When you win the toss, 9 times out of 10 you elect to bat. The tenth time, you think about it and again elect to bat first.”

I am sure that most Cricket followers would have heard of the this saying. Ian Chappell has mentioned it on quite a few occasions. Till recently, I never thought of it being true and rather dismissed it, just like any another stereotypical statement.

I felt the decision to bat or bowl would depend on pitch conditions, weather, team combinations, opposition among other factors. However, in the recent past, I have almost never seen a captain win the toss in a Test match and not elect to bat first. The just finished India-Australia series and India-Sri Lanka series had 5 tosses. Indian skipper MS Dhoni lost all five of them and ended up fielding first all 5 times. Another surprising fact is that all the tosses that Ricky Ponting has won in tests at home, he has elected to bat every single time.

Bird watching?

With pitches in the sub-continent turning a lot on the last day, batting first is almost an automatic choice for any captain who wins the toss. Similar is the scenario in West Indies where the slow pitches develop cracks as the match goes on. This causes uneven bounce and makes life difficult for the batsmen batting last. Even Sabina Park, Kingston which was the liveliest and fastest pitch in the Caribbean has become slow over the years.

As pitches have turned batting friendly around the world, more and more teams prefer putting up the runs and then try to attack the opposition. Also, the fact that barring a few batsmen, most struggle to do well in the fourth innings has been established earlier. Only a few venues such as Headingly in England provide good movement for the quick bowlers on the first day which compel skippers to bowl first. Even that doesn’t guarantee that team batting first loses.

The Basin Reserve in New Zealand is probably the only ground where teams would probably bowl first on most occasions, thanks to humid conditions and the pitch which has been fruitful for pacers in particular. South African grounds too are mostly batting friendly with high scores made often, like in the famous Bullring (The Wanderers in Johannesburg).

Apart from these two exceptional grounds, the old saying certainly seems to be more than just a stereotype.