After playing friendlies against China and Jordan in the month of November 2018, India is likely to lose the 97th rank to the 98th ranked team Estonia in the upcoming FIFA rankings which will be released on November 29, 2018.
Stephen Constantine side played out a 0-0 draw against a higher ranked China earlier in November, while his side suffered a defeat at the hands of Jordan, whose FIFA ranking is 112, much lower than India.
As it stands, Indian national football team is ranked at 97 with 1245 points behind Qatar at 96 with 1248 points. 98th ranked team is Estonia with 1237 points. Let us now try to forecast the FIFA rating points as per the latest FIFA Elo rating methodology for these 3 teams and see why India is going to lose out the 97th ranking to Estonia.
# 1 Qatar Rating - Present FIFA rank - 96
Qatar played 2 friendlies against Switzerland and Iceland in the relevant period and scored a win against Switzerland While holding Iceland to a draw. Please note that Qatar who is a 96th ranked team did punch their boots high and was able to win against Switzerland ( Ranked at 8) and keep a draw against Iceland (Ranked at 36).
As you can see, Qatar won around 8 points to go from 1248 to 1256 after their win against Switzerland and continued their journey by earning around 2 points to take their final rating to 1258. With this rating score, Qatar will see a massive jump in the rankings and may even end as 94th ranked team depending on other teams results.
So there is no possibility of India (97th) surpassing Qatar(96th) in any case to go up in the FIFA rankings.