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After playing friendlies against China and Jordan in the month of November 2018, India is likely to lose the 97th rank to the 98th ranked team Estonia in the upcoming FIFA rankings which will be released on November 29, 2018.
Stephen Constantine side played out a 0-0 draw against a higher ranked China earlier in November, while his side suffered a defeat at the hands of Jordan, whose FIFA ranking is 112, much lower than India.
As it stands, Indian national football team is ranked at 97 with 1245 points behind Qatar at 96 with 1248 points. 98th ranked team is Estonia with 1237 points. Let us now try to forecast the FIFA rating points as per the latest FIFA Elo rating methodology for these 3 teams and see why India is going to lose out the 97th ranking to Estonia.
# 1 Qatar Rating - Present FIFA rank - 96
Qatar played 2 friendlies against Switzerland and Iceland in the relevant period and scored a win against Switzerland While holding Iceland to a draw. Please note that Qatar who is a 96th ranked team did punch their boots high and was able to win against Switzerland ( Ranked at 8) and keep a draw against Iceland (Ranked at 36).
As you can see, Qatar won around 8 points to go from 1248 to 1256 after their win against Switzerland and continued their journey by earning around 2 points to take their final rating to 1258. With this rating score, Qatar will see a massive jump in the rankings and may even end as 94th ranked team depending on other teams results.
So there is no possibility of India (97th) surpassing Qatar(96th) in any case to go up in the FIFA rankings.
# 2 India Rating - Present FIFA rank - 97
India played 2 friendlies against China and Jordan in the relevant period and held a draw against China while losing to Jordan. Please note that China who is a 75th ranked team was held to a draw by the Indian side but mismanagement and various other reasons did affect the Indian side in their encounter against Jordan(Ranked 112) and lost to them.
As you can see, India won around 0.7 points to go from 1245 to 1246 after their draw against China but lost around 6 points to take their final rating to 1240. The fact that India lost against a much lower ranked team went against them in the FIFA rankings and the new rating score is 5 points lower than the existing score India had.
98th ranked team Estonia had a rating of 1237 and let us see what their new rating will be in the next slide.
# 3 Estonia Rating - Present FIFA rank - 98
Estonia played 2 matches against Hungary and Greece as part of Nations League in the relevant period and won against Greece while losing to Hungary. Greece who is a 42nd ranked team lost to Estonia while the defeat of Estonia was at the hands of another higher ranked team - Hungary(ranked at 55).
As you can see, Estonia lost around 5 points to go from 1237 to 1232 after their loss against Hungary but won around 10 points to take their final rating to 1242. The fact that Estonia won against a much higher ranked team will go in favor them in the FIFA rankings and their new rating score is 5 points higher than their existing score.
With a forecasted FIFA rating of 1242, Estonia comes ahead of India with a forecasted rating of 1240 in the upcoming FIFA rankings which will be published by FIFA on November 29, 2018.
