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The group stage of the 2018 Intercontinental Cup is almost over, with only one match left to play.
In the final match, Kenya will take on Chinese Taipei on June 8 at the Mumbai Football Arena. For both the teams, however, the match means something entirely different. For Chinese Taipei, it provides a chance to play some of their fringe players as they are already eliminated from the competition. On the contrary, for Kenya, this match provides a chance to qualify for the final.
This is where things start getting a little complicated. Kenya needs to win at all costs to avoid elimination. However, if they do indeed win, they'll end up on the same number of points as India and New Zealand.
The rules for progression in the Intercontinental Cup are not straightforward. Instead of goal difference, head-to-head seems to be the deciding factor when ranking one team above another. Goal difference and goals scored will be looked at only after head-to-head.
However, all three teams in contention- India, New Zealand, and Kenya, have won games against each other, thereby negating the head-to-head rule.
Therefore, We take a look at five possible scenarios on which two teams will contest the final of the Intercontinental Cup.
Scenario no. 1: Kenya draw or lose against Chinese Taipei
Kenya have three points after two matches. New Zealand and India have six points after three matches. If Kenya do indeed fail to get all three points against Chinese Taipei, they will simply be eliminated from the tournament.
New Zealand and India make it to the final; Kenya and Chinese Taipei are eliminated
Scenario no. 2: Kenya wins by a margin of fewer than 3 goals
Simply a win might not be able to save Kenya from elimination.
Since all the three teams in contention of a final spot have beaten each other once, head-to-head is no longer valid. We thereby move on to compare goal difference.
Kenya currently have a goal difference of -2, while New Zealand have a goal difference of +1. If Kenya wins by a margin of fewer then three goals, they will remain behind the All Whites on goal difference and will be eliminated.
New Zealand and India make it to the final; Kenya and Chinese Taipei are eliminated
Scenario no. 3: Kenya wins by a margin of 3 goals
If Kenya are able to beat Chinese Taipei by a margin of three goals, both head-to-head and goal difference will be negated.
A three-goal margin win against the Asian side would put Kenya on the same goal difference as New Zealand. We will, therefore, look at the third deciding factor- goals scored. Kenya will have scored more goals by the end of the group stage in this case and will thereby advance to the final, eliminating New Zealand.
Kenya and India make it to the final; New Zealand and Chinese Taipei are eliminated.
Scenario no. 4: Kenya wins by a margin of more than 3 goals
A win by a margin of more than three goals will be the most straightforward result for Kenya. Since head-to-head is now redundant, Kenya will simply advance due to their superior goal difference.
Kenya and India make it to the final; New Zealand and Chinese Taipei are eliminated.
Scenario no. 5: Kenya wins by a margin of 10 goals
In the unlikely scenario of Kenya beating Chinese Taipei by a margin of ten goals, the African side will have positive goal difference as compared to both India and New Zealand.
Kenya will then finish as table toppers. India will join Kenya in the final, due to their superior goal difference to that of New Zealand.
Kenya and India make it to the final; New Zealand and Chinese Taipei are eliminated.
