Predicting the 2018 NFL playoff picture

After making my forecast for the top three candidates to win all the major NFL awards, it's time to look at the teams, who will end up making the playoffs in 2018. To do so, I went through all the games week by week, considering days of rest, home-field advantages, specific matchups and all kinds of different factors.

Then I looked at the resulting matchups for each round of the postseason all the way up to Super Bowl LIII. You can find an Excel document of the filled-out schedule at the end of this slideshow.

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons (12-4)

2. Los Angeles Rams (11-5)

3. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

4. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)

5. New Orleans Saints (11-5)

6. Minnesota Vikings (9-7)

In the hunt: Bears (9-7), Panthers (9-7)

The NFC is stacked. There is just no other way to say it. When I had my wins and losses handed out and I wrote down the records next to each team, I was shocked that teams like the Bears and Panthers didn’t make the playoffs, but there are just too many really good teams in this conference.

I have the Falcons as my number one seed in the NFC. Like I already said, I think Matty Ice will be an MVP candidate throughout the year with all the weapons surrounding him. I love the defense and you saw what they are capable of last year’s postseason versus the Rams and pretty much the eventual Super Bowl champions as well.

Right behind them, I have those Rams I just mentioned. This team has been the Super Bowl favorite for a lot of people because of the additions they have made with Brandin Cooks, Ndamokung Suh, Aquib Talib and Marcus Peters. While I would be cautious to crown them already before seeing them actually do it out there on the field, they should definitely be contenders.

I have the Packers regaining supremacy in the NFC North. The Vikings were outstanding last year and I love what the Bears have put together, but if you have that man wearing the number 12 jersey you can cover up a lot of deficiencies. Green Bay has questions at linebacker and edge rusher, but I think they will be much-improved on the back-end and this offense will be something to watch.

As far as division-winners go, the Eagles are the only one among them making the cut with single-digit wins. I know Philly looks better on paper than they did when winning a championship, but I think the NFC East will beat up on each other and to be frank, I have to see Carson Wentz be healthy to put them any higher. Nick Foles has looked horrible in preseason and the coaching staff doesn’t have the same amount of time to game-plan like they did in the playoffs.

I know there have been a lot of excellent wild-card contenders and teams like the Giants have been smoking hot once they joined the party, but this Saints squad might be the best we’ve seen in a while to not win their division. They are absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball and they are all in on these next few years to win another Lombardi with Drew Brees at the helm.

As much as I would love to see the Bears make it this year and live up to my high expectations for them, the tie-breakers just didn’t match up. Having won the NFC North last season, the Vikings have matchups against the Saints and Eagles, which gives them the nod as the team with the tougher strength of schedule.

Minnesota will once again feature a suffocating defense, Kirk Cousins is taking over to go with an outstanding receiving corp and I think Dalvin Cook will have a monster year.

AFC

1. Los Angeles Chargers (12-4)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

3. New England Patriots (11-5)

4. Tennessee Titans (11-5)

5. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

6. Houston Texans (9-7)

In the hunt: Jaguars (9-7), Broncos (8-8)

While I think the NFC is clearly the better all-around conference with no pushovers, the AFC now has so much more to offer in terms of teams that can win against anybody. I know that the Jaguars really surprised some people, but was there really anybody that thought a team not named the Patriots or Steelers had a shot to come out of the conference? This season I could pretty much see half the teams make a run.

It already starts at the top, where I have a team that won nine of their final twelve games, but ended up just missing the playoffs. I think this time around the Chargers will come out of the gates hot. I have them winning their first five games and twelve overall. They have all the weapons necessary on offense, a monster pass rush and an opportunistic secondary.

Behind them, I went with the Steelers, because you can pretty much book them for double-digit wins every single year. Nobody in the league has a trio quite like Roethlisberger, Bell and AB. Plus, they have a top-tier offensive line and other playmakers. Defensively I’m not sure about them without Ryan Shazier, but I like the interior D-line and the rebuilt back-end.

There it is, the Patriots won’t earn a first-round bye this year. This team hasn’t played a wildcard game since 2009, but I just don’t see how they will be a top two seed this season. Chris Hogan and Philip Dorsett will be their two starting receivers and the guy on their roster with the most QB takedowns in 2017 got five of his eight sacks in one game against a backup. I have the Patriots losing at Heinz Field to set them up with a tough road.

My fourth division champions may be a surprise to a lot of people. After getting hammered by the Patriots in the Divisional Round last season, nobody is really counting on the Titans in the AFC South, but I think they are the most complete team in the conference. They are built in the trenches, now look much better on the outside and added exactly what they needed in the draft as well as in terms of coaching, with the tough-minded Mike Vrabel, Matt LaFleur and Dean Pees calling the shots.

I had more problems figuring out the wildcard teams. There are three teams in the AFC I expect to finish at 9-7 and they all have pretty good cases to be in the mix, plus another one in the Broncos who I could easily see win the direct matchup against the Ravens to own the tiebreaker at the end of the year or any other game for that matter, to take that final spot ahead of the Texans. However, they and the Jaguars slightly miss out on the postseason according to my projections.

With that being said, I believe the Ravens defense will be scary this season. They have seemingly an unlimited amount of bodies in the front seven with several breakout candidates and they have put together one of the elite secondaries in the league (if healthy) under the radar. Joe Flacco has looked as sharp as ever from early impressions and I think Ozzie Newsome has put the guys around him that the QB is comfortable with.

The Texans, on the other hand, had one of the elite defensive units a couple of years ago without all the pieces fully developed and out on the field together. If J.J. Watt does play like the Comeback Player of the Year to go with Jadeveon Clowney and the rest of this ferocious front, they have the potential to be as dominant as ever. Yet, it is Deshaun Watson coming back from a torn ACL after setting the league on fire last year that will determine how far this team can go.

Playoffs

Wildcard Round

NFC

3. Packers OVER 6. Vikings

5. Saints OVER 4. Eagles

AFC:

3. Patriots OVER 6. Texans

5. Ravens OVER 4. Titans

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Divisional Round

NFC

1. Falcons OVER 5. Saints

2. Rams OVER 3. Packers

AFC

1. Chargers OVER 5. Ravens

3. Patriots OVER 2. Steelers

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Championship Games

NFC

1. Falcons OVER 2. Rams

AFC

1. Chargers OVER 3. Patriots

Super Bowl: Falcons vs. Chargers

I have the two number one seeds of their respective conferences taking advantage of home-field throughout the playoffs to square up against each other in the big game. Not only do we have two former Seahawks defensive coordinators in Dan Quinn and Gus Bradley coaching against each other and two MVP candidates going tit-for-tat, but this will also mark the first time ever that a team appears in a Super Bowl in their own arena, as the Falcons will be home at Mercedes-Benz stadium.

It should be an incredible battle between two great quarterbacks of this era, explosive offenses and playmaking defensive units to determine which of these two teams will win their first ever Lombardi trophy.

Filled out schedule