Predicting the 2018 NFL playoff picture

AFC

1. Los Angeles Chargers (12-4)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

3. New England Patriots (11-5)

4. Tennessee Titans (11-5)

5. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

6. Houston Texans (9-7)

In the hunt: Jaguars (9-7), Broncos (8-8)

While I think the NFC is clearly the better all-around conference with no pushovers, the AFC now has so much more to offer in terms of teams that can win against anybody. I know that the Jaguars really surprised some people, but was there really anybody that thought a team not named the Patriots or Steelers had a shot to come out of the conference? This season I could pretty much see half the teams make a run.

It already starts at the top, where I have a team that won nine of their final twelve games, but ended up just missing the playoffs. I think this time around the Chargers will come out of the gates hot. I have them winning their first five games and twelve overall. They have all the weapons necessary on offense, a monster pass rush and an opportunistic secondary.

Behind them, I went with the Steelers, because you can pretty much book them for double-digit wins every single year. Nobody in the league has a trio quite like Roethlisberger, Bell and AB. Plus, they have a top-tier offensive line and other playmakers. Defensively I’m not sure about them without Ryan Shazier, but I like the interior D-line and the rebuilt back-end.

There it is, the Patriots won’t earn a first-round bye this year. This team hasn’t played a wildcard game since 2009, but I just don’t see how they will be a top two seed this season. Chris Hogan and Philip Dorsett will be their two starting receivers and the guy on their roster with the most QB takedowns in 2017 got five of his eight sacks in one game against a backup. I have the Patriots losing at Heinz Field to set them up with a tough road.

My fourth division champions may be a surprise to a lot of people. After getting hammered by the Patriots in the Divisional Round last season, nobody is really counting on the Titans in the AFC South, but I think they are the most complete team in the conference. They are built in the trenches, now look much better on the outside and added exactly what they needed in the draft as well as in terms of coaching, with the tough-minded Mike Vrabel, Matt LaFleur and Dean Pees calling the shots.

I had more problems figuring out the wildcard teams. There are three teams in the AFC I expect to finish at 9-7 and they all have pretty good cases to be in the mix, plus another one in the Broncos who I could easily see win the direct matchup against the Ravens to own the tiebreaker at the end of the year or any other game for that matter, to take that final spot ahead of the Texans. However, they and the Jaguars slightly miss out on the postseason according to my projections.

With that being said, I believe the Ravens defense will be scary this season. They have seemingly an unlimited amount of bodies in the front seven with several breakout candidates and they have put together one of the elite secondaries in the league (if healthy) under the radar. Joe Flacco has looked as sharp as ever from early impressions and I think Ozzie Newsome has put the guys around him that the QB is comfortable with.

The Texans, on the other hand, had one of the elite defensive units a couple of years ago without all the pieces fully developed and out on the field together. If J.J. Watt does play like the Comeback Player of the Year to go with Jadeveon Clowney and the rest of this ferocious front, they have the potential to be as dominant as ever. Yet, it is Deshaun Watson coming back from a torn ACL after setting the league on fire last year that will determine how far this team can go.