Bubba Wallace's costly mistake leaves a win as his only sure path to the NASCAR playoffs

Bubba Wallace's 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season may be slipping through his fingers because of a single, high-stakes miscalculation. After clashing with longtime road-course rival Alex Bowman, the 23XI Racing driver finds his playoff hopes hanging by a thread, with just seven races left in the regular season.

Heading into Chicago, Wallace was quietly building a career-best season. He'd been solidly above the cut line for most of the year, buoyed by consistent stage points, smart strategy and a best-ever average finish. But after Sunday, Wallace left the windy city just two points over the playoff bubble.

Bubba Wallace (23) and Alex Bowman (48) during the NASCAR Cup Series Würth 400. Source: Getty

This wasn't the first (or second) time Wallace and Bowman have clashed in a high-pressure road course setting. Their initial showdown at the Roval in 2018 turned volatile, with tempers boiling over and Wallace’s infamous post-race water toss making national headlines. In 2024, Wallace door-checked Bowman at Chicago post-race and was fined $50,000.

The 2025 edition started off on a lighter note as both drivers joked about their matchup during TNT's pre-race coverage. But the smiles didn't last long. With just six laps to go and a top-10 finish in sight, Wallace found himself defending from Bowman, who was charging with fresher tires.

The two clashed several times through the narrow corners of Grant Park, with Bowman eventually hooking Wallace in Turn 2 and sending the No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota spinning.

"I thought we had squashed our beef, but clearly we've not... So certainly not trying to crash anybody. I mean, I'd have to watch it back to be certain, but I felt like he did it to himself because I kept pinballing between him and the outside wall. So yeah, wasn't the intention. I felt like he did it to himself," Bowman told NASCAR post-race.

Wallace, meanwhile, offered a more tempered view after being released from the infield care center:

"I was passing cars, having fun, showing that we keep improving and keep building confidence. We'll be fine. So hate to see it end that way. It was fun. Fun with the 48. No love lost, all good."

This third chapter felt different. As physical as it was, both drivers seemed more reflective, perhaps a sign of the personal growth both have undergone. And yet, Bubba Wallace's instincts in the moment to defend a spot that wasn't realistically his, on older tires, brought back shades of the earlier chaos.

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Playoff pressure mounts on Bubba Wallace as points tighten around the bubble

Bubba Wallace (R) during The Great American Getaway 400 practice at Pocono Raceway. Source: Imagn

The aftermath wasn't as dramatic as past incidents. There was no water tossed, no post-race door hits, but the damage might run deeper than ever before. Alex Bowman finished eighth, moving to a comfortable +39 above the playoff cut line. Bubba Wallace, on the other hand, finds himself only two points ahead of Ryan Preece, with four open playoff spots.

For Wallace, it means a win may be the only sure way to punch his ticket. But, out of the final seven races, two are road courses (Sonoma, Watkins Glen), and two are short tracks (Iowa and Richmond). Neither of these is his strongest suit, and that means unpredictability is going to rule.

Bubba Wallace (23) during qualifying for the Grant Park 165 at Chicago Street Race. Source: Imagn

However, Wallace's edge lies at superspeedways. He has wins at both Talladega and Kansas, and his average finish on superspeedways in 2025 (16.2) is the best among all track types. If there's a silver lining to Sunday's meltdown, it's that Wallace still has the Coke Zero Sugar 400 as the last regular-season fixture.

But the cushion he once had is gone. The frustration of losing a top-10 points day to a heated rivalry may be the pivotal moment that sends Bubba Wallace scrambling for a win in the regular season’s chaotic final stretch.