Can anyone dethrone Joe Gibbs Racing's charge to the 2025 NASCAR Championship?

Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) started the 2025 NASCAR Cup playoffs by winning all three races of the Round of 16 and is looking like the championship favorite this season. Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe won the first three playoff races at Richmond, Gateway and Daytona. But can they keep the momentum going to the championship round?

"We are in a really good spot right now, the Toyota group, and specifically Joe Gibbs Racing. But we've got a long way to go to get to Phoenix, and it's going to be a hard road," Bell said after his Bristol Night Race win (3:30 onwards).

The Round of 12 will start at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, where JGR has strong results. Hamlin has the most wins (four) of all time at the second track of the round, Kansas Speedway, and the Roval at Charlotte Motor Speedway will host the final race. Christopher Bell has won at the Roval and holds a series-best four poles at Kansas Speedway. Chase Briscoe also had a runner-up finish at the 2024 USA Today 301 in New Hampshire

However, Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson and William Byron are just behind the points leader, 24 points above the cutline heading into the next round.

Larson won at the Roval last playoffs and has wins at Vegas, Kansas and Phoenix in the past four playoffs. Defending Cup champion Joey Logano, who is currently two points below the cutline, has also built a reputation of showing strong form towards the end of the season. He won at Las Vegas and Phoenix last season after underwhelming performances during the regular season. His Team Penske teammate Ryan Blaney also has two consecutive playoff wins at Martinsville. Blaney is 19 points above the playoff cutline, one point below Bell and nine points above Briscoe.

Joe Gibbs Racing lacks in recent Phoenix wins

Perhaps the biggest hurdle for Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) is its lack of recent wins during the championship race at Phoenix Raceway. While the team has achieved significant success at other venues, its results at Phoenix have been less impressive.

Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin did finish 1-2 during the spring race at the 1-mile track but JGR has failed to land wins at the final race in the Next Gen era.

"The bad news is that we're not running Phoenix next week, and there's still a long way to go to get there," Joe Gibbs Racing's Bell said during the same post-race interview (3:15).

Meanwhile, Team Penske has shined at Phoenix Raceway in recent years. Logano led 107 laps and finished 1-2 for the team with Blaney in second place last year.