Can Denny Hamlin finally break through with a NASCAR title this year

Denny Hamlin enters the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs looking to challenge for the title once again. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has the joint-most victories this season and sits third in the playoff standings. Yet the central question remains as it has for more than two decades: can the No. 11 finally claim the elusive first title?

Hamlin has had a vintage regular season. Along with wins at Darlington, Martinsville, Michigan, and Dover, he has 11 top-fives, tied most. He also sits third in laps led with 555 and is also tied with Shane van Gisbergen for the most victories in the field. At 44, the veteran is proving that he can still perform at the highest level, despite entering the part of his career where most drivers see a steep decline.

Of course, the challenge is familiar. Hamlin remains the winningest active driver without a Cup championship, standing on 58 career wins. He's been to the Championship 4 four times, finished second in the 2010 Chase to Jimmie Johnson, and added a third-place result in his rookie season in 2006. But the breakthrough has yet to arrive. That history fuels the skepticism that even another strong regular season might guarantee a title.

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Why 2025 looks like Denny Hamlin’s best chance yet

Denny Hamlin (11) celebrates his win during the Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway. Source: Imagn

The body of work this season is hard to overlook. Denny Hamlin's four victories are more than any other driver, while his consistency stacks up with the very best. He’s been especially efficient at tracks that dominate the playoff slate. He has five career wins at Darlington, four at Bristol, six at Martinsville, and multiple victories at Kansas, Talladega, and New Hampshire. With the postseason built around short tracks and intermediate ovals, the No. 11 camp has reasons for optimism.

The competition has also been inconsistent. Kyle Larson has shown little dominance since the All-Star Race, Joey Logano has just one win, and Ryan Blaney has struggled for consistency. Hamlin, meanwhile, has kept the speed and the results steady throughout the summer.

Speaking ahead of the playoffs on his "Actions Detrimental" podcast, Hamlin said the venues play into his hands:

"I feel good about it. I mean, I feel as though the tracks are all good. We're at more conventional ovals for the most part in the playoffs. You get one road course, one superspeedway, which is fair. I feel good about it. If it's based off of speed, we're right there where we need to be. I don't foresee any issues for us to make it." (29:24 onwards)

Hamlin also admitted to setting bigger targets beyond just making the finale.

"My goals remain the same. I'd like to win a couple more races before the end of the season. Whenever they are, they are. If they advance me, they advance me. Let's get to 60 this year."

That experience, plus a postseason schedule lined with tracks where he's already proven his ability, makes Denny Hamlin's path as strong as it has ever been.

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Why history suggests Denny Hamlin still might not

Denny Hamlin before the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Source: Getty

And yet, fans have seen this before. Denny Hamlin has had six separate seasons with at least four wins, and still the Cup trophy has slipped away. His closest call came in 2010 when he led the series with eight victories but fell 39 points short of Jimmie Johnson's fifth consecutive title. The playoff format then was different, but the sting of losing after a dominant year has repeated itself since.

The volatility of the modern playoff system adds another hurdle. Hamlin has often criticized the winner-take-all finale, where a single race determines the champion regardless of the body of work built across 36 events. Even this year, his form dipped late in the regular season with just one top 10 in the final three races before Darlington.

Age is another undeniable factor. Few drivers sustain peak performance into their mid-40s. In the modern era, only Harry Gant, Mark Martin, and Bobby Allison recorded four-win seasons at an older age than Denny Hamlin. By traditional metrics, the window is already closing for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver.

Advanced metrics also show limitations. According to NASCAR Insights, Hamlin finished the regular season ranked 15th in passing, seventh in defense, fourth in speed, and 10th in restarts and eighth in pit crew performance. The data suggests that when Hamlin controls a race from the front, he can close, but when stuck in traffic, he struggles to move forward. That vulnerability in the chaotic playoff rounds could prove costly.

All of this places 2025 as a crossroads. Denny Hamlin signed his most recent extension with Joe Gibbs Racing, knowing it might represent his final peak years. His career has already produced Hall of Fame numbers, with sustained runs of dominance from 2009–12, 2019–21, and now again in 2025. But this stretch may be his last real chance to convert regular-season brilliance into a championship before age narrows the window once and for all.