Hendrick Motorsports' numbers paint a worrying picture as Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Chase Elliott face mounting pressure

As the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs head towards the finale, Hendrick Motorsports found itself facing a familiar challenge - speed without reward. Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Chase Elliott entered Las Vegas within reach of the Championship 4. But the Round of 8 opener left the organization staring at an uphill climb ahead of Talladega.

In Sin City, Larson ran near the front all day but could not convert speed into a win. Byron looked strong until Lap 232, when contact with Ty Dillon, while trying to pit his race car, resulted in a DNF. Elliott’s afternoon was defined by pit-lane chaos and an uncontrolled-tire penalty that pushed him well back in the order. Those outcomes left Hendrick with one driver secure and two drivers scrambling for points with the Alabama draft looming.

Byron is 15 points below the cutline in fifth, Elliott 23 points below in sixth. Larson, the lone Hendrick driver above the cutline, holds second with a comfortable margin but remains winless in 52 starts at drafting tracks, including Talladega.

Hendrick Motorsports drivers Kyle Larson (5), Chase Elliott (9), and William Byron (24) in the 2024 GEICO 500. Source: Getty

Historically, that has been Hendrick Motorsports’ worst Cup track since the team began in 1984, with an average finish of 18.0. The team does have 14 all-time wins there, but only one since the Next Gen era began. The track’s history of chaos is clear, with the last ten Cup races at Talladega producing ten different winners, and seven of the eleven were decided by a last-lap pass. That volatility does not favour drivers who must protect their playoff position.

For drivers like William Byron and Chase Elliott, that unpredictability can either save their playoff runs or end them in seconds. Byron’s strong qualifying form this year has rarely translated to consistency on drafting tracks, while Elliott - a past winner at Talladega - knows all too well that even the best cars can be caught out by wrecks.

As the field prepares for Sunday, Hendrick Motorsports needs clean runs, stage points, and a stroke of fortune. If Talladega turns chaotic, as it often does, the team’s playoff hopes may hinge on a perfect weekend at Martinsville instead.

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Hendrick Motorsports’ best chance may come at Martinsville, but Talladega form gives hope

William Byron (L) and Chase Elliott of Hendrick Motorsports at Gateway. Source: Getty

If Talladega goes sideways, Hendrick Motorsports can still take comfort in Martinsville Speedway - the final race of the Round of 8. It has been their most successful Cup Series venue. The organization’s 29 victories are the most by any team at a single track, making it a proven stronghold in playoff-deciding moments.

Still, the numbers at Talladega in the Next Gen era provide reason for some optimism. Among Hendrick’s four regulars, average finishes at the superspeedway are better than the entire Cup field: William Byron (7.0), Chase Elliott (10.9), Alex Bowman (13.0), and Kyle Larson (13.9). Those figures show the Hendrick cars adapt to the superspeedway draft better than much of the field, even if they are short on wins.

That said, the stakes have rarely been higher. Kyle Larson, already +35 above the cutline, enters with breathing room but remains eager to end his winless streak. For Byron and Elliott, the task is to finish up front and risk relying on Martinsville, where their playoff paths could intersect.