Is Chase Elliott truly hanging on in the playoffs by luck?

Chase Elliott survived elimination despite a bad crash during last week's final Round of 16 NASCAR Cup Series race at Bristol. He entered the Bass Pro Shops Night Race 28 points above the cutoff line, but a win from one of the drivers below the cutline could have knocked him out of the playoffs.

Elliott failed to score any stage points at the 0.533-mile Tennessee oval. The Hendrick Motorsports driver tried a risky move late in the race when he attempted to move from the top lane to the bottom to save tire wear. This caused the No. 9 Chevy to hit the wall and ended his day early.

However, Elliott managed to make it to the next round after a 38th-place finish because no other driver below the cutline earned enough points. So, is Elliott hanging on by luck? He got strong finishes earlier in the season, but has had three finishes outside the top-25 in the last six races.

His crash last weekend could easily have pushed him below elimination if teammate Alex Bowman, who was in a position to win the Bristol night race, had been able to do so. But Bowman was 35 points below the cut line and ultimately could not earn enough points to advance to the second round of the playoffs.

Elliott's good fortune did play a part. But he is now only five points above the Round of 12 cut line after scoring just one point at Bristol.

"Looking forward to see how we stack up" - Chase Elliott hopes for progress at New Hampshire

Chase Elliott's only top-5 finish in the past nine Cup races came at Gateway earlier this month. He started from 19th on the grid and completed all 240 laps without any major incident to pick up good points in both stages.

The race saw eight cautions, three of which came during the third and final stage. Ty Dillon's brake failure caused the last caution, but Elliott, who had pitted a few laps before that, managed to stay out and finish third. After the race, Chase Elliott pointed out similarities between Gateway and New Hampshire.

"It's kind of been one of those years in general, just trying, some of those days taking what was there. I was really encouraged by our Gateway, to be frank, and I thought there was a lot of really good stuff that went on there throughout the course of the event. I think New Hampshire has some similarities to Gateway, so I'm looking forward to see how we stack up," Chase Elliott said (quotes via NBC Sports).

Elliott's best finish at New Hampshire was a P2 finish in 2022. He has started in the top 10 in nine of 11 starts at the 1.06-mile track, but has only three top-10 finishes. Elliott has also led 24 laps in his last ten races there.