5 NASCAR playoff bubble drivers who can’t afford mistakes in the next three races

Several NASCAR Cup drivers are locked into the playoffs after multiple wins throughout the 2025 season. Denny Hamlin leads with four victories, while Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and Shane van Gisbergen have three wins each. Points leader William Byron scored his second victory at Iowa last weekend.

Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick holds the strongest position among bubble drivers. He leads the current Cup Series cutoff by 122 points. That gives the 23XI Racing driver a substantial margin unless three new winners emerge. Reddick is the highest-ranked driver with no wins and sits sixth in points with 673, trailing just 97 points behind the leader.

Now, with three races remaining before the NASCAR regular season ends, some drivers will have to earn their playoff berths by wins, bonus points, or solid finishes. This weekend’s road‑course race, Go Bowling at The Glen, will precede the Cook Out 400 at Richmond and the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona.

Here are five NASCAR Cup and Xfinity drivers who will have to deliver in the remaining races this season:

#1 Alex Bowman (+63 on cut‑off)

Alex Bowman holds a 63‑point advantage over the cut line. The 32-year-old is the only Hendrick Motorsports driver with no wins so far this season. Bowman would be vulnerable unless he were one of those winners.

After a solid points day at Iowa, Bowman collected 40 points and scored a seventh-place finish going into Watkins Glen.

#2 Chris Buescher (+23 on cut‑off)

Chris Buescher sits just 23 points above the cut-off. He leads Rousch Fenway Keselowski Racing (RFK) teammate Ryan Preece by 42 points for the 16th spot. If two new winners appear in the mix without his name among them, he risks being bumped out.

Buescher will return to Watkins Glen this weekend as the defending winner.

#3 Ryan Preece (-23, below cut‑off)

Ryan Preece lies 23 points below the current cutoff. A win by another driver would deepen his deficit or push him further outside. Preece, who has collected ten top-10 finishes so far, must push for victory with no margin for error over the next three NASCAR Cup races.

#4 Harrison Burton (+17 above cut-off)

In the Xfinity Series, Harrison Burton sits just above the playoff cut line with 546 points. His strong fifth-place finish at Iowa gave him stage points to surpass both Ryan Sieg and cousin Jeb Burton by 17 and 19 points, respectively. Iowa marked only his second top‑five result of the season.

#5 Sheldon Creed (+81 above cut-off)

Sheldon Creed currently holds a safer spot, 81 points above the NASCAR Xfinity Series playoff cutoff. That cushion has grown after recent consistent finishes, but he remains winless this season. Creed’s position gives him more breathing room than many around him. He must maintain that momentum to stay clear of the bubble as the regular season winds down.