Austin Cindric's 11-point cushion is more fragile than it appears

Austin Cindric finished in 19th place last Sunday at World Wide Technology Raceway and is now the last NASCAR Cup playoff driver above the elimination line. His prospects hinge on his performance at Bristol Motor Speedway, a track where the No. 2 team has not had a finish better than 13th in five starts.

Denny Hamlin became the second driver to enter the Round of 12 after his fifth win of the season at Gateway. He joined Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Chase Briscoe, who had won at Darlington. Cindric was the defending winner at Gateway but is only 12 points above the Round of 12 elimination line after a poor finish.

Last season, Cindric entered the third playoff race with a 43-point cushion, and a 13th-place result in the 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race helped him advance to the Round of 12. However, the margin for error this time at the 0.533-mile short track is very slim. Cindric has also never led any laps at Bristol in his NASCAR Cup career.

Cindric was ranked ninth in the standings heading into the second playoff race at Gateway, with 12 points ahead of the cutoff line. Christopher Bell and Chase Elliott, who were just below him, moved up the standings after Gateway. Meanwhile, Cindric is in a fragile spot given his recent inconsistent performances on track. He has just two top-10s and four finishes outside the top-25 in the last 12 races. A bad finish at Bristol this week could disqualify him.

Austin Dillon (11), Shane van Gisbergen (15), Alex Bowman (35), and Josh Berry (45) are below the cutoff line. However, if any of them end up winning the Bass Pro Shops Night this weekend, Cindric would lose his last spot in the Round of 12.

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Austin Cindric's inconsistent finishes continue this season

Austin Cindric secured his third career Cup Series win this season at Talladega. However, his performance has been inconsistent outside of the superspeedway and has struggled to convert speed into strong finishes.

The 27-year-old has only one other top-five finish this year, which came at Richmond Raceway last month, and three other top-10 finishes at Daytona, Vegas, and Pocono. Similarly, Cindric entered the 2024 playoff after his GTW win and only two other top-10 finishes.

Ahead of Sunday's race at Gateway, the Team Penske driver mentioned being in no different position than last year, which has surely changed now.

"I don't think we're in any better or worse position than I've been in before, just from a numbers standpoint and how we've run throughout the year. It's definitely my best season to date," Austin Cindric said (via Racer.com).

Austin Cindric has led 313 laps so far this year, which is more than his career-best of 256 laps led during the whole of the last season.