NASCAR Insider lays out Martin Truex Jr.’s delicate path to playoffs at Darlington

NASCAR insider Bob Pockrass recently outlined what Martin Truex Jr. needs to do in the upcoming final race of the regular season to secure a spot in the top 16. Pockrass explained that the #19 Joe Gibbs Racing driver just needs to finish 18th or better in the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington.

At this point last year, Martin Truex Jr. was leading the NASCAR Cup standings after winning three races during the regular season. Following the final race at Daytona, he earned the title of "Regular Season Champion 2024." However, this year, which Truex has announced will be his last in the NASCAR Cup Series, has been challenging. Despite several close calls, the #19 has not managed a win.

Although he hasn’t clinched a playoff spot yet, as noted by Bob Pockrass, Truex's path to the playoffs is clear if he can just secure that 18th place or better at Darlington.

"Truex is in if no new winner. if there is a new winner, he just needs to finish 18th or better (and that assumes he gets no stage pts and buescher sweeps stages and finishes second so likely wouldn't have to finish that well)."

After his 24th-place finish at Daytona on Saturday night, Martin Truex Jr. now enjoys a 58-point buffer above the playoff cut line this year. Despite the potential for a new winner, he remains in a strong position, sitting 19 and 37 points ahead of Ty Gibbs and Chris Buescher, respectively.

In NASCAR, the most points a driver can accumulate in a single race is 60 — by winning both stages and the race itself. However, merely starting a race guarantees at least one point, creating a possible swing of 59 points between the highest and lowest outcomes. Therefore, it would require a highly unlikely turn of events for Truex to miss out on the playoffs.

Furthermore, Truex has claimed victory twice at Darlington in his career, although his performance there has been less impressive recently, with no finishes better than 18th in his last five starts.

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Martin Truex Jr. teases 2025 Plans

After announcing his retirement from full-time NASCAR [post-2024 season], Martin Truex Jr. received an offer from Denny Hamlin to drive the #50 car for 23XI Racing in 2025 at Daytona. Initially, Truex expressed gratitude towards Hamlin for the gesture, but he's now hinting at a possible comeback.

According to Jordan Bianchi, Truex Jr. is nearing a deal with Joe Gibbs. However, given that 23XI Racing collaborates closely with Joe Gibbs Racing, it remains unclear whether Truex's potential agreement would be with JGR or 23XI Racing.

Bianchi shared the update on his official X handle, stating:

"Martin Truex Jr. says the deal is "all but done" regarding running the 2025 Daytona 50. He wouldn't elaborate on which team it would be with, only that Joe Gibbs was working on it."

With an average finish of 13.9 at Darlington, it remains to be seen whether the #19 Toyota driver can secure a spot in this year's playoffs.