Martinsville will act as a do-or-die for a myriad of NASCAR Cup Series drivers to make it into the championship showdown in Phoenix. While Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe have already locked out their berths for the final four, the same cannot be said for the Round of 8 rivals.
With only a single round left to spare, the probability of only a single driver making it into Phoenix on points seems more and more likely, as the past race weekends have witnessed different drivers take the victory lane. So, let's take a look at the average finishing position of the Round of 8 drivers heading into Martinsville since the postseason began:
NASCAR Round of 8 drivers ranked based on their average finishes in the playoffs so far
#8 Chase Elliott
Plum last among the Round of 8 drivers is Chase Elliott with an average finish of 16.25. He had only recently won a race at the Kansas Speedway and looked to take on the fight for the NASCAR Cup Series title like his 2020 attempt.
However, since then, he has only had a solitary top-10 finish. To further rub salt in his wounds, he was the first one to retire out of the Talladega race and now sits 62 points below the cutline, meaning only a race win at Martinsville could help him get into the championship fight at Phoenix.
#7 William Byron
Another Hendrick Motorsports driver is on the lower fringes of the average finishing ladder, and it is William Byron, the NASCAR Regular Season champion. Despite having earned the bonus points for claiming the Regular Season title, he finds himself 36 points below the cutline.
This has been due to his inconsistent results since the playoffs began, scoring two top-10s in the past eight race weekends. This has plummeted his average finish down to a dismal 16.
#6 Ryan Blaney
The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series champion is the next one in line, as Ryan Blaney has an average finish of 15.62 during the playoffs. He has had two torrid race weekends in the Round of 8 and sits 47 points below the cutline.
This all but asures his elimination from the Round of 8 unless he is able to secure a victory in Martinsville.
#5 Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson was regarded as a championship heavyweight heading into the post season and has continued his form into into the past few weekends in the playoffs. He has an average finish of 13.25, with a best result of second at the Roval and Las Vegas recently.
This has helped him stay above the cutline and is in a realistic spot of getting into the final four.
#4 Denny Hamlin
Denny Hamlin has already secured his spot in the final four after his victory at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It was his sixth race victory of the season, more than any other driver in the 2025 Cup Series field so far.
However, despite this, his average finish is only slightly above Larson's, at 12.62. This is down to his peaky results that have seen him winning two races in the playoffs, but the race weekends in Bristol, Roval, and Talladega have also witnessed results outside the top-20 that have hampered this statistic.
#3 Joey Logano
The NASCAR Cup Series reigning champion is on the verge of being knocked out of the championship running this year. Joey Logano has had an average finish of 12.12, the third highest among the Round of 8 drivers, but this has not translated into a similarly high points tally.
He has claimed three top-fives since Darlington and a top-10 finish at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway to top it all off, but this has not been enough for him as he finds himself 38 markers below the cutline.
#2 Christopher Bell
Another Joe Gibbs Racing driver is in the hunt to secure their maiden NASCAR Cup Series title this year. Christopher Bell has an average finish of 7.5 during the playoffs and is the highest driver in the fight for a Phoenix berth due to his impressive points tally.
After the race in Darlington, he has not finished outside the top-10 and has won a race in Bristol to top it all off.
#1 Chase Briscoe
Chase Briscoe emerged as the winner at the fall NASCAR race at Talladega. Much like Denny Hamlin, he has also won two races during the playoffs and has had an impressive 5.62 average finishing position at the chequered flag.
This has helped him secure his spot in the championship brawl at Phoenix, along with possessing the highest points total among the Cup Series drivers in the usual standings.
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